Tom Tancredo Corrects Media Myths About Hispanic Voters
Posted on Tuesday, December 09 @ 06:16:44 EST
Topic: Campaigns Candidates Elections
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 Understanding the 67% Hispanic Vote for Obama
December 5, 2008
By Rep. Tom Tancredo
Face The State
As part of conservatives' sober assessment of the 2008 election, we
need to take a close look at the so-called "Hispanic vote." I offer the
following observations, which are based on the latest available exit
poll data and respected voter surveys. The real problem goes much
deeper than John McCain's inept campaign. We can and must do a better
job of reaching Hispanic voters, but we can do that without pandering
or compromising conservative principles.
1. Is there such a thing as the "Hispanic Vote"?
Yes and No. Hispanics do not vote as a bloc and their pattern of
voting did not change radically in 2008, contrary to the hype and
distortion coming from amnesty advocates like the Mexican-American
Legal Defense and Education Fund (MALDEF). What changed was the number
of Hispanic citizens who went to the polls in 2008, not their party
allegiances. If you correct the voting data for income and education
levels, Hispanics vote much the same way as other Americans of similar
socio-economic status.
Topics: Campaigns, Elections, Media Myths, Hispanic Vote, illegal immigration, Border Security, Tom Tancredo, Obama, McCain, Presidential race
2. Was there a major shift among Hispanic voters toward the Democrat Party in 2008?
No, not relative to historical patterns of the past 20 years. According
to the Pew Hispanic Center report on the 2008 election, the 67% of
Hispanic votes that went to Barack Obama was within the norm for
presidential elections since 1988. Bill Clinton got 72% in 1996 and Al
Gore 62% in 2000. Thus, Obama's 67% was not a departure from historical
levels. While Bush got 40% of the Hispanic vote in 2004, he got only
35% in 2000 and the Republican candidate in 1996, Robert Dole, received
only 21%.
3. Was the large Hispanic vote for Obama a reversal of Republican gains of recent years?
No, not unless you use only 2004 as a comparison and ignore the trends
of the past 20 years. The decline in Republican vote by Hispanics from
2004 to 2008 was less significant than McCain's loss of support in
other demographic groups - such as among voters age 18-29, Catholics,
evangelical Christians, and women of all ages. Obama even got 20% of
the vote among self-identified conservatives, compared to John Kerry's
8% in 2004. McCain's 31% in 2008 was close to the 30% earned by
Republican congressional candidates in 2006.
4. Was the immigration reform issue the main factor in winning Hispanic support for Obama over McCain in 2008?
No, the evidence suggests exactly the
opposite. A poll of likely voters in July sponsored by Univision showed
that only 11% of Hispanic voters considered immigration to be the most
important issue of the election - compared to 54% who ranked jobs the
number one issue. An exit poll conducted for CNN showed that Hispanic
voters ranked immigration seventh in importance among all issues.
The idea that Hispanic voters care mainly about immigration policy
ahead of all other issues is a myth created by advocacy groups. A July
survey by the Pew Hispanic Center showed Obama's margin of support over
McCain on the immigration issue - 59% to 19% -- was nearly identical to
his margin on other issues: health care (64%to 19%), education (66% to
18%) and jobs (65% to 19%).
5. What about trends in party orientation and registration?
Hispanic voters have been registering predominantly Democratic for
decades. What changed in 2008 was the increase in Hispanic registration
and turnout, not the strong preference for Democratic candidates.
Republican Party registration among Hispanic voters is now only 16%
nationally compared to 51% Democrat. For recent immigrants who have
been naturalized and are newly registered to vote, their country of
origin affects voting behavior. For example, Hispanic citizens who were
born in Cuba are almost twice as likely to be registered Republican as
those born in Mexico. Current immigration patterns (both legal and
illegal) inevitably affect voter registration trends and tilt the
playing field toward the Democrat Party. This has been true since the
1965 amendments to the Immigration and Naturalization Act, which
shifted immigration allotments away from job skills and toward family
reunification.
Past immigration amnesties rewarded illegal aliens from Mexico and
Central America disproportionately to other nationalities, thereby
adding millions of new legal aliens likely to register as Democrats
after naturalization.
6. Taking the swing state of Colorado
as an example, did the higher Hispanic turnout cost John McCain the
state's nine Electoral College votes?
No. In Colorado John McCain actually received a higher percentage of
Hispanic votes than George Bush did in 2004 — 38% vs. 31% according to
exit polls. McCain's small gains among Hispanic voters in Colorado did
not offset his large losses among other groups: a 7% increase among the
13% of the voters who were Hispanic translates to less than 1% gain in
overall votes. Compared to Bush in 2004, McCain suffered a 9% decline
in support among non-Hispanic whites, which cost him six times as many
votes as he gained among Hispanics. Thus, McCain's loss in Colorado was
due to receiving less support than Bush across a wide spectrum of
groups and cannot be attributed to any one factor or demographic.
7. Are there significant differences
in the voting pattern of native-born Hispanics citizens and newly
naturalized Hispanic citizens?
Yes. Foreign-born (naturalized) Hispanic voters are 50% more likely to
register as Democrats than native-born Hispanic voters and they voted
for Obama over McCain by a 78% to 22% margin. That segment has now
grown to 33% of all Hispanic voters.
If Congress passes a new amnesty program for fifteen million
illegal aliens, we can expect to see that figure rise to 50% by 2016,
which means a proportionate rise in Democratic voter registrations.
8. Do the voting patterns of newly
naturalized Hispanic voters differ significantly from the voting
patterns of other immigrants who become citizens?
Not historically, but Hispanic immigrants (especially those who entered
the country illegally) tend to have lower education and job skills than
other immigrants, and those characteristics affect party registration
in a Democrat direction. For that reason, immigrants tend to register
and vote Democratic. Party affiliation changes over time with increased
income and family relocation to more affluent neighborhoods. The influx
of millions of low-skilled individuals who can work only at low-wage
jobs translates into millions of new Democratic Party registrations
when they attain legal status and join the voter rolls.
What lessons can Republicans draw from the 67% Hispanic vote for Obama?
1. Hispanics have been registering and voting Democrat in
presidential elections by a two-to-one ratio for 20 years and the 2008
vote for Obama is consistent with that pattern.
2. The issues that mattered most to Hispanics in 2008 were jobs and
the economy, health care, crime, and the costs of higher education, not
immigration policy.
3. The 24-month-long intensive and well financed voter registration
drives by liberal groups and the Democratic Party paid off in increased
Hispanic voting, including higher turnout rates among already
registered individuals.
4. McCain's support for "comprehensive immigration reform" and amnesty did not help him win Hispanic voters - they had other issues that were more important to them, and he lost their support on those issues as well.
5. It is a mistake to look upon Hispanic citizens as a special interest
group interested only or primarily in immigration policy. That is
condescending and stupid, stupid because Democrats will always outbid
Republicans in that game.
The Republican Party should stop trying to design an "appeal to
Hispanics" and instead appeal to Hispanic citizens on the same broad
range of issues that are important to all Americans - national
security, education, job creation, small business opportunities, and
family values. Like all Americans, Hispanic citizens are interested in
the prosperity, security and well-being of their families. When
Republicans build a better platform on those issues, a platform that
appeals to all Americans of every ethnic background, Hispanic citizens
will come to the Republican Party.
Tom Tancredo represents Colorado's 6th congressional district in the United States House of Representatives.
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