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Report: Boehner won’t bring immigration bill to the floor unless majority of House Republicans support it
posted at 1:12 pm on June 17, 2013 by Allahpundit Hotair Blog
At long, long last, a bit of good news on immigration reform — if it’s true. A money quote from Ryan Lizza’s New Yorker piece about the big push in Congress for amnesty:
[A] senior White House offcial insisted that Obama’s role in overseeing details of the bill has been more signifcant than is generally known. ‘No decisions are being made without talking to us about it,’ the official said of the Gang of Eight negotiations … ‘This does not fly if we’re not O.K. with it, because everyone knows this is going to pass with some Republicans but with a majority of Democrats, and it’s going to require even more Democrats in the House.’ … ‘We’re not worried about short-term political credit. We’ll get plenty of it if it gets signed,’ the official said, adding that the White House was willing to let Republicans like [Lindsey] Graham and [Marco] Rubio, who are regularly attacked by conservatives, have the political space they needed. … ‘We’re the hammer on the back end. If the Republicans try to scuttle it, we’re the ones who can communicate to the Latino community who scuttled it.’
Bingo. The most obvious route to passage in the House is with near-unanimous Democratic support and a rump of 30-40 GOP moderates whose districts aren’t so red that voting for the Gang of Eight bill might end up as a career-ender. That makes things nice and simple: If Boehner follows the Hastert Rule and refuses to bring a bill to the floor that’s opposed by the majority of the GOP caucus, then border hawks have a very real chance of stopping this thing. If Boehner abandons the Hastert Rule and decides to try to pass it 180 Democrats and 40 Republicans, then he’s probably done as Speaker but he’ll have pushed immigration reform through. That’s been the big X factor in all this. Is the GOP leadership so hot for reform that Boehner might fall on his sword to make it happen?
At the Examiner, David Drucker’s sources say no:
House Speaker John Boehner is not going to bring a comprehensive immigration-reform plan to the floor if a majority of Republicans don’t support it, sources familiar with his plans said.
“No way in hell,” is how several described the chances of the speaker acting on such a proposal without a majority of his majority behind him…
“I just don’t think that’s the winning formula here,” [Rep. Tom] Cole told The Washington Examiner. “What the speaker wants to do is have a hopefully bipartisan product — certainly one that has the majority of Republicans — pass the House. This has got too much emotional, political impact and I think it really has to be genuinely bipartisan.”
“No way in hell,” is how several described the chances of the speaker acting on such a proposal without a majority of his majority behind him…
“I just don’t think that’s the winning formula here,” [Rep. Tom] Cole told The Washington Examiner. “What the speaker wants to do is have a hopefully bipartisan product — certainly one that has the majority of Republicans — pass the House. This has got too much emotional, political impact and I think it really has to be genuinely bipartisan.”
Reassuring, but only up to a point. Al Hunt of Bloomberg predicted yesterday that if Boehner concludes there’s no hope for immigration reform except to violate the Hastert Rule, he’ll violate it, pass the bill, and accept the consequences to his Speakership. No doubt most Beltway Republicans are hoping that he does. In a sense, pushing the bill through with most House GOPers voting no is an ideal outcome to them. Letting most House Republicans vote no ensures that they won’t have to worry about turnout or primary challenges in their districts back home. Meanwhile, the dream of amnesty will have become a reality with two Republicans — Marco Rubio and John Boehner — drawing lots of breathless media coverage as the men who made reform happen. The party will, in theory, get an image boost with Latinos for that and yet it’ll retain its House majority with conservative support for the members of the caucus who voted against the bill. I wonder what establishment Republicans have in mind for a post-Speakership John Boehner if he comes through for them. The lobbyist opportunities must be simply mind-boggling.
If you missed it in Headlines, read Byron York on how the Gang of Eight bill offers several loopholes, including discretionary waivers to Janet Napolitano, for illegals convicted of multiple misdemeanors to gain legal status anyway. That the Gang would include poisonous exceptions like that knowing how much it would antagonize the conservatives they’re ostensibly trying to win over shows just how much control Democrats ultimately have over the bill.
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Good Morning America – Tue, Jun 11, 2013 10:05 AM EDT
Trancscript
STEPHANOPOULOS: Let's talk about immigration. It's on the Senate floor-- this week. Can you support the Senate bill?
BOEHNER: I've got real concerns about-- the Senate bill. I-- wanna applaud the efforts of the gang of eight in the Senate-- applaud my colleagues-- who've worked hard on this. But-- especially in the area of border security-- and internal enforcement of this system-- I'm concerned that it doesn't go far enough.
STEPHANOPOULOS: If it goes farther, are you prepared to sign on to a bill that has a clear path to citizenship for those who are now in the country illegally?
BOEHNER: George, what I've tried to do over the course of the last six months is to create an environment-- in the House where members from both parties can continue to work together. Seven-- we have a gang of seven. We have a bipartisan--
STEPHANOPOULOS: Used to be eight.
BOEHNER: Used to eight. But-- but we've got seven, bipartisan group of seven that have come to an agreement. Chairman Goodloe at the Judiciary Committee has been working through-- these issues with his members. And I'm hopeful that we'll have a product-- come out of the committee-- by the end of June. I believe that it's important for the House to work its will-- on this issue. And-- and I would expect that-- a House bill will be to the right of where the Senate is.
STEPHANOPOULOS: But still include a path to citizenship?
BOEHNER: I'll let-- I'll let— what I've committed to is to continue to work with all parties. And I'm-- some of these questions, let's be honest. They're gonna be decided on the House floor. I believe in an open process. And I believe-- in this case, a lot of these big questions will be decided on the House floor--
STEPHANOPOULOS: But in the end, you're gonna have to make the big call. You're gonna have to make the call on whether or not to allow a vote on a bill-- that perhaps doesn't get a majority of Republicans.
(COUGH) In the past, you have not been willing to do that. Are you willing to do it now?
BOEHNER: George, I-- listen. I've allowed the House to work with-- t-- well, more than any speaker in modern history, to the point where there are some bills that have passed-- with a majority of Democrats-- in favor, and a minority of Republicans--
STEPHANOPOULOS: And you're willing to do that with immigration.
BOEHNER: --and I've been criticized for it. What I'm committed to is a fair and open process on the floor of the House-- so that all members-- have an opportunity.
STEPHANOPOULOS: And--
BOEHNER: It's not up-- it's not about what I want. It's about what the House wants. And my job is-- as speaker-- is to ensure that all members on both sides have a fair shot at their ideas--
STEPHANOPOULOS: And if that means-- if that means putting on the floor a bill that will get more Democrats than Republicans, the majority of Democrats, not--
BOEHNER: I-- I don't believe that will be the case.
STEPHANOPOULOS: But you're open to it?
BOEHNER: We're gonna let the House work its will.
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