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May 1, 2006


Americans in Mexico Worry About Retaliation


By Nancy Conroy


Americans living in Baja California, Mexico, have been feeling a bit tense lately, because of the big illegal immigration debate going on in the US. In April huge crowds demonstrated in major US cities, waving Mexican flags, applying pressure, and generally creating political havoc. The US is deeply divided over the problem, whereas illegal immigration is a campaign issue in the upcoming Mexican presidential election – and the already delicate US-Mexico relationship is showing even more signs of strain.

A situation that has gringo expatriates worried, because of fears that this fracas could ignite a backlash against Americans living in Mexico. If the US is cracking down on Mexicans, might Mexico launch a counter-campaign against gringos living in Mexican beachside communities?

Fortunately there have been few overt signs so far of any such hostile response. There have been no announcements, no demonstrations, no unusual police problems, no immigration crackdown, and no noticeable difference in people’s attitudes towards Americans living in Mexico.

In Baja California, relations with our Mexican hosts have continued cordial as usual. That is good news, and before people start getting too worried they should look around to see if there is any real evidence that their fears might be justified. And if nothing negative is really happening, then maybe the chronic worriers should just settle down.

Still, the illegal immigration debate in the US will probably heat up more before it dies away. On May 1, Mexicans in the US are planning “A Day Without Mexicans,” which will be a day of work stoppage and shopping boycott by immigrants and friends. If that event has a big impact, things could start changing fast.

President George W. Bush might make a blunder, the demonstrations could continue, or some politician might escalate the rhetoric.

Leftist Mexican presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) is still leading most of the opinion polls, but if he gets desperate for attention he might launch some inflammatory anti-American diatribe. That scenario is everyone’s worst nightmare, especially if it works – and AMLO’s popularity ratings are starting to slide a bit.

As well, an American pundit or politician could just as easily do the same thing.

In this tense environment, coffee klatches, Internet bulletin boards, emails and phone calls all suggest a rising sense of fear among US expatriates. One Baja California chat forum, run by “Sundog,” has recently had plenty of inquiries from people thinking about moving here, but who are worried about hostility towards Americans as a result of the US immigration debates.

In cafes, too, the talk of the town seems to be on this matter. People feel uncertain, worried, and unclear. One American retiree, a 55-year Baja California resident, returned from a visit to Oaxaca and said that she has never felt so unwelcome in Mexico as she felt these days. Apparently a McDonalds was coming to town and provoking protests. Still, not everyone thinks that way and there don’t seem to be any protests going on in Baja California.

The likelihood of an anti-American backlash here probably depends on whether the tone of the US immigration debate turns nasty (nastier?) or not. The Mexicans who are protesting in the US by and large are doing so peacefully, without violent incidents, except for a bit of Mexican flag-waving that got on people’s nerves.

One uncomfortable incident, though, is a sarcastic letter making the rounds on the Internet, called “I’m Headed to Mexico.” It is a “letter” to President Vicente Fox, supposedly from an American, saying that he plans to move to Mexico, he has no intention of complying with immigration laws, and he fully expects a long list of demands to be met such as free social services, English speaking officials, bilingual forms, driver’s licenses, medical care, etc.

The ironic thing about this letter, however, is that Mexico actually does provide Americans with several of the items and services on the fictional “list.” In Rosarito, Baja California, where there is a large American population, Mexican city officials do indeed provide bilingual forms, English speaking police officers, and driver’s licenses to foreigners. Also, the sad truth is that many Americans living in Mexico have not regularized their immigration status.

With that said, the satirical letter is just a little too close to reality. That is scary, because if Mexico adopts an “eye for an eye” retaliation strategy Americans living in Mexico are vulnerable.