Thread: Border Patrol: Will the Immigration Issue Save Republicans?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... 00451.html

Border Patrol
Will the Immigration Issue Save Republicans?

Monday, July 24, 2006; A09


In a year of bad omens for Republicans, there is at least one potential bright spot: immigration.

Most Republicans in the House and many in the Senate are pushing to crack down on illegal immigration and are vowing to fight anything that could be construed as amnesty or guest-worker status for undocumented workers already in the United States. This stance excites the conservative base at a time when many on the right are disenchanted with their party over high spending and other issues.

The point is not that hard-line sentiment against illegal immigration is necessarily shared by a majority of the electorate: A Washington Post-ABC News poll showed that most voters prefer a middle-ground position. But many Republican candidates are wagering that those with the most passionate views are voters against illegal immigration who will show up in large numbers.

What is striking is how dynamic this issue is far from the U.S.-Mexico border. Eastern Iowa's 1st Congressional District is 92 percent white, with a Hispanic population of 2 percent. But immigration was a flash point in a recent three-way Republican primary. Winner Mike Whalen hit the issue hard with calls for ID cards to ensure that businesses do not hire illegal immigrants.

Whalen will face Democrat Bruce Braley, a trial lawyer, who has cautioned against using immigration to divide people. The seat is being vacated by Republican Jim Nussle, who is running for governor. With a Democratic tilt in recent presidential elections, Iowa's 1st is considered among the most likely districts in the nation to switch parties.

If Iowa is an unlikely testing ground for immigration politics, Arizona is no surprise. The 8th District, on the Mexican border, is 18 percent Hispanic, and it has an open seat, thanks to retiring Republican Jim Kolbe. The issue could also be pivotal in the Senate race between incumbent Republican Jon Kyl and Democrat Jim Pederson.

It will play as well in the race for an open House seat in Colorado's 7th District, in the Denver suburbs.

In nearly every place where the immigration debate is central, the political question is the same: Will the more severe stance of many Republican candidates increase voter turnout sufficiently to offset any damage done among Hispanic voters and political independents who prefer a more accommodating approach?


-- Jonathan Weisman

What is striking is how dynamic this issue is far from the U.S.-Mexico border. Eastern Iowa's 1st Congressional District is 92 percent white, with a Hispanic population of 2 percent. But immigration was a flash point in a recent three-way Republican primary. Winner Mike Whalen hit the issue hard with calls for ID cards to ensure that businesses do not hire illegal immigrants.

That's my stomping ground. What the article doesn't tell you is that Davenport and Bettendorf are part of what is referred to as the Quad Cities. Five cities set on the banks of the Mississippi, 3 in Illinois, 2 in Iowa. On the Illinois side of the river are Moline, East Moline and Rock Island. The population demographic is different. 11.5% Hispanic in Moline and rising. I don't know the demographic change in the other cities. Moline sets across the bridge from Bettendorf. There are gangs in the Illinois Quad Cities which have only to cross the bridges to visit Iowa.

Whalen will face Democrat Bruce Braley, a trial lawyer, who has cautioned against using immigration to divide people. The seat is being vacated by Republican Jim Nussle, who is running for governor. With a Democratic tilt in recent presidential elections, Iowa's 1st is considered among the most likely districts in the nation to switch parties.

My bet is Whalen will get it. Hopefully Nussle will get it. Whalen's already had his eyes copied in on what Nussle gets, at least as far these fingers do the talking.

Iowa is an unlikely testing ground for immigration politics,

Not at all. Iowans are very welcoming people but they are also realistic people. For years now we have watched three Iowa cities in close proximity to the Quad Cities as well as the Illinois Quad Cities demographics change due to the proximity of IBP (Iowa Beef Packing). These companies hire illegals in fact they go to Mexico to recruit them. When they are tipped off a "raid" as it is referred to,,,they fire them.

The political balance has shifted in at least three small Iowa cities as a result of this. In Kings district during the March - marches the American flag was dragged down the main street. That actions DOES NOT PLAY IN IOWA.
People took notice, people started researching and found that education (a high priority to Iowans) was being undermined and they quietly and I hope effectively respond.

I'm not sure how the presidential election would play out. Those who supported Bush so passionately are VERY quiet now. I know of one who refuses to hear Bush's name. The presidential election will be interesting to see because at least the people I speak with won't vote for either party. They are hopeful that a viable third party candidate will present him/herself.

What is striking is how dynamic this issue is far from the U.S.-Mexico border.

To the media: well, duh

Sorry, folks, but what a SURPRISE!

Spent the weekend contacting media. Will let you know if I get any positive responses.