I wonder if the illegals working in construction are willing to go back to picking crops when the jobs start drying up from the construction slow down?

http://www.unionleader.com

Housing starts down in Granite State
By PAULA TRACY
Union Leader Staff
12 hours, 19 minutes ago


Campton – Carpenters, sheet-rockers, masons, plumbers and subcontractors from as far away as Concord have been on the phone looking for work at Grady Built Construction here recently.

"They are calling from all over," said project manager Kathy Grady, noting the small construction company has about 10 projects going on ranging from remodeling to new million-dollar estate homes in the foothills of the White Mountains. She is not alone.

There are about 20 percent fewer homes being built in the state this summer at a time when analysts say there are 50 percent more homes on the market this year than the same time last year.

These factors, coupled with the fact that as many as 46 communities have instituted some form of growth ordinance or growth moratorium has people like Kendall Buck worried.

``What has us most alarmed," said the executive vice president of the Home Builders and Remodelers of New Hampshire, "is all of last year we were 14 percent below the previous year," he said in terms of building permits issued.

The U.S. Census Bureau showed that there were 7,699 housing permits issued in New Hampshire in all of 2005, which was under the 2004 figure of 8,952.

There's growth
Still, New Hampshire is the fastest growing state in New England and according to the Brookings Institution, which has researched New Hampshire's economy, "if we are to grow we need to be building 8,700 units a year," Buck said.

"Overregulation at the local level is making it more difficult to build and to be affordable,'' said Buck.

Chris Northrop, principal planner at the New Hampshire Office of Energy and Planning, said only six of the 46 communities that are limiting building are not in Rockingham, Hillsborough and Merrimack counties.

The list of communities with no growth or limited growth ordinances now include Andover, Auburn, Barnstead, Brookline, Bow, Canterbury, Chester, Chichester, Danville, Derry, Deerfield, Dublin, East Kingston, Epsom, Exeter, Farmington, Fitzwilliam, Fremont, Gilmanton, Greenland, Hampton Falls, Harrisville, Henniker, Hillsborough, Hollis, Hopkinton, Hudson, Litchfield, Londonderry, Loudon, Milford, Lyndeborough, Northfield, Northwood, Pembroke, Pittsfield, Rye, Salem, Salisbury, Sandown, Sharon, South Hampton, Stratham, Weare, Webster, and Wilton.

"When you have a big inventory of houses now that should iron out because people may look to purchase existing housing stock,'' he said.

Only reason
The sole reason for growth management is to temporarily slow things down in the town to give them time to plan the growth that is occurring, Northrop said.

In theory, once they have spent the money to provide for the infrastructure, there is no need for it.

But that doesn't always lift the limits.

And building does not go on.

"I don't want to venture to guess, but towns may be doing this to slow things down because we like it the way it is and we don't want it to change. And that is really the wrong motivation for it. And I don't know if a court would uphold it."

Northrop, who recently quickly sold his home in Plymouth for a condo in Concord, said the market may be tightening.

"It's cyclical. We are just on the down side of the cycle. Anyone can look at historical trends and we may be on the downside. The difficulty is how long and how steep and where does the upside begin?"

Russ Thibeault is president of Applied Economic Research, an economic and real estate consulting firm to banks, developers, investors.

Private study
He recently did a statewide study of the housing stock available and found there is 50 percent more available and it extends to all price ranges, with the bulk being in the $300,000 range.

He said he is pleased building starts are off because it does not add to the unsold inventory. Too much leads to slowdown in the market and economy in general.

"It's a significantly better market for buyers this year," he said but rising interest rates, have outstripped buyer's resources and they are settling for less house than they would have paid for with lower rates a year ago.

``We are still making good sales,'' said Chip Maxfield, owner of a real estate firm with offices in Wolfeboro, Ossipee and Center Harbor.

He said the lower range properties in the $250,000 range are selling best, the mid range of $375,000 are the hardest to sell and the prices are staying firm at the million dollar plus homes. His business is up 30 percent for the past six months.

He has seen lots of new inventory but he notes wages have not gone up as much as housing costs.

``What has happened is there is a shift in market sentiment from frantic buyers to nervous sellers. With the increase in the inventory, buyers have the ability to shop, shop, shop till you drop," Maxfield said.

State figures also show the housing market has cooled.

Commissioner of the Department of Revenue Philip G. Blastos said the state's real estate transfer tax revenue is down from the prior year by $1.5 million with receipts totalling $158.3 million.

This is about 8 percent below state projections for the tax.

Trend seen
The Conventional Mortgage Home Price Index for New Hampshire showed an upward trend.

In 2004, it showed the average price of a house at $184,000 and in 2005, $207,000 and in 2006, $224,000 compared to the current national average of $296,000.

Tom Duffy, a senior planner in the state data center within the Office of Energy and Planning, said New Hampshire is still a very attractive place to move relative to New England despite the decline in new housing starts.

Between 2000-05 the growth rate was 6 percent compared to the next closest in New England, which was Maine at 3.7 percent.

"It will still remain the fastest growing but we are in for a period of moderation and I think it is going to be for the longterm," he said.

The high cost of housing is one reason.

"We have been getting around that because the cost of housing in Massachusetts is relatively higher. So people have been able to -- if they have equity -- cash it in Massachusetts and move to New Hampshire. Massachusetts is by far the highest source of immigrants, accounting for 40 percent,'' he noted.

"With Massachusetts losing population, I just don't know how long New Hampshire can maintain this (growth) "¦ our immigration is holding steady, but our out-migration is experiencing a mild yet consistent uptick and the increase is headed south to southeastern states where the climate is warmer and the housing is cheaper."

Productive summer
In Campton, where subcontractors looking for work are headed north, Kathy Grady said this is one of the busiest summers her company has had in many years with projects ranging from renovations to new housing starts.

But she said they don't have enough work for everyone looking for it.

Buck said the state needs to look regionally at planning and housing and address needs for more affordable workforce type housing.

The builders association is working with a coalition that is expected to ask the governor to take a formal role in leading on the issue of growth and development in the state in the coming year, he said.