http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articl ... ikely.html

May 15, 2006
Immigration Compromise Likely to Strip Out Citizenship
By Peter Brown

It doesn't take a crystal ball to see that the eventual compromise on immigration reform, if there is to be one, likely will take off the table eventual U.S. citizenship for those here illegally.

That's because even if the Senate can agree on a plan, that will just set up a high-stakes negotiation with the House of Representatives over the final form of the bill that goes to President Bush for his signature.

The House bill passed earlier this year is almost exclusively devoted to strengthening border enforcement, and there is very strong opposition to what members call "amnesty" for illegal immigrants that would allow them to become citizens.

The Senate is still debating the matter. There is a consensus there, too, for stronger enforcement measures. But there is also a desire for a more comprehensive bill that would integrate the 12 million illegal immigrants into U.S. society.

The Senate proposal that almost passed earlier this spring, but fell apart amidst partisan bickering, would both legalize most of those here currently and create a path for eventual citizenship.

Bush wants stronger border enforcement and a guest-worker program to allow currently undocumented workers to work legally. In the past he has opposed "amnesty" but has been silent on the subject recently.

The idea of allowing immigrants here illegally to "earn" the ability to become citizens through learning English, paying back taxes and staying crime-free has been the focus of immigrant-rights groups. It has gained support from most Democratic senators and some Republicans. This is the approach opponents call "amnesty."

Eventual citizenship for illegal immigrants has been for the left what the House-passed provision that would declare that the 12 million immigrants here illegally guilty of a felony has been for the right: A dream result.

But the House Republican leadership has already acknowledged that making illegal immigration a felony, and deporting all those violators, is both politically unacceptable and logistically impossible. And, with that concession, that leaves the construction of a fence across the U.S. Mexican border as the most objectionable part of the House bill in the eyes of the immigrant-rights folks.

The fence idea has been lampooned by some, but it has some solid support on Capitol Hill. Even Sen. Hillary Clinton, the leading candidate for 2008 Democratic presidential nomination, favors a fence along the U.S.-Mexican border that would stop the continuing flow of illegal immigrants.

Polls show the American people are split on the fence.

But that idea has a worthwhile precedent to consider: Since Israel built its fence along the border with the Palestinians; the number of suicide bombings within that nation has dropped sharply, indicating the wall has been effective in keeping out terrorists

When it comes to U.S. immigration, any compromise that would strip out eventual citizenship would need to include a program to allow those here illegally to work on the books in order to win sufficient votes. That is Bush's bottom line and, after all, he does get final say.

There may be some merit in the argument that allowing immigrants to become legal but not eventually citizens is immoral because it would create the type of two-tier society Americans have historically resisted. But, morality is in the eye of the beholder.

And such a system would be just adjusting immigration laws to fit the circumstances, something that the U.S. government has done for centuries - depending on economic needs and political pressures.

This approach would be similar to the two-tier wage contracts that have become prevalent in many industries these days. The unions don't like the practice of paying veteran workers one wage and new hires another.

But this practice has allowed once-dying U.S. industrial companies to compete in a global economy, and actually led to an increase in their U.S. hiring. In other words, it has worked.

Much more than in business, politics is the art of the possible. If the United States is going to solve its immigration problem, rather than let it fester and become even a greater national problem, change is needed now.

That's why is seems clear that the notion of eventual citizenship for illegal immigrants looks to be the legislative provision on the chopping block if a compromise is to be reached.

Peter A. Brown is assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. He can be reached at peter.brown@quinnipiac.edu