Report: Illegal Mexican migration to US stabilizes
Report: Illegal Mexican migration to US stabilizes
By MARK STEVENSON
Associated Press
Published: Tuesday, October 23, 2012 at 5:40 p.m.
Last Modified: Tuesday, October 23, 2012 at 5:40 p.m.
MEXICO CITY - The number of migrants crossing illegally into the United States from Mexico appears to have risen some in the first half of 2012, while the number of migrants returning to Mexico decreased, a report by U.S. and Mexican researchers said Tuesday.
It was the first time the net outflow of migrants from Mexico has increased since the 2007 economic slump caused a sharp drop in both migration and the amount of money sent home by Mexicans working in the U.S. as migrants found it harder to find work north of the border.
The report by Mexico's Colegio de la Frontera Norte and the University of Southern California's Tomas Rivera Policy Institute said the number of Mexican-born people in the United States seemed to have stabilized at around 11.7 million and might grow slightly by year's end. The number included Mexicans who migrated legally and those who crossed over illegally.
"The recession-induced decline of undocumented migration from Mexico appears to have stopped in the first half of 2012 amid tentative signs of a renewed northbound flow," the study said.
The report is based on surveys done at Mexican border crossings, bus stations and airports and on U.S. deportation, repatriation and demographics data. It says heightened U.S. enforcement of immigration laws and state initiatives like one enacted in Arizona didn't appear to have persuaded illegal migrants already in the United States to leave.
"Despite evidence of growing psychological effects on the migrants who are removed, the available data suggest that these efforts have failed to have substantial, ongoing effects on the size of the Mexican migrant population," the report said. "Neither the border survey nor the other indicators examined here offers any evidence that those efforts have had any effect on the number of Mexican migrants leaving the country. On the contrary, fewer Mexican migrants have left the United States since those enforcement efforts went into effect."
The report added that "the available data for migration trends in 2012 suggest that the size of that (U.S. Mexican migrant) population might show a small increase across the entire year unless the U.S. economy flattens or declines in the third and fourth quarters."
Rodolfo Garcia Zamora, an immigration expert at the state university in Zacatecas, a Mexican state that is home to many migrants to the U.S., expressed caution about the report, which he was not involved in.
Garcia Zamora feels it is too early to say illegal migration is rebounding, even with a slight uptick in the number of migrants heading north. He said considerable evidence suggests many migrants continue to return to Mexico voluntarily in the face of difficult economic conditions in the United States.
"The evidence we have is that the flow of undocumented migrants to the United States continues stagnant and blocked, and that the number of migrants returning from the United States continues to increase," Garcia Zamora said.
He said about 1,000 families had returned to Zacatecas so far this year. He said returning migrants inform their fellow townspeople about difficult conditions north of the border, thus discouraging them from making the trip.
The report, "The Mexican Migration Monitor," said the prospect for getting a job remains the determining factor for would-be migrants. "Economic conditions in the United States have been, and remain, the primary determinants of the size of Mexican migration flows," it said.
Garcia Zamora said some evidence suggests there may have been "a very slight, very temporary rebound" in migration in the first half of 2012, "because of a rebound in some specific industries where Mexicans work" in the United States, like food service and janitorial service.
The report also cited an increase in the percentage of migrants crossing illegally into the U.S. In 2006, at the height of the migration boom, eight of 10 would-be Mexican migrants sought to enter the U.S. illegally. That dropped to less than half following the 2007 downturn, but now about 60 percent of migrants are crossing illegally, the report said.
Mexico's most recent national census, in 2010, said migration had fallen to about one-third of its peak level of about 450,000 Mexicans who left each year from 2000 through 2005.
Garcia Zamora said the U.S. no longer serves "an escape valve for our country, as it has for the last 50 years." The result, he said, is that Mexico will probably now see increased internal migration, with people moving from farm states to Mexico's industrial cities.
Report: Illegal Mexican migration to US stabilizes | StarNewsOnline.com
Study: Improved economy draws illegal immigrants
Alan Gomez, USA TODAY
October 25 2012
http://www.gannett-cdn.com/media/USA...16ac2a14e2a4ec
Illegal immigration from Mexico reached historic lows during the recession, but with the economy improving, the number of illegal immigrants entering the U.S. from Mexico is growing
Want a sign that the economy is on the rebound? Illegal immigration from Mexico is starting to rise again, according to a new report.
Immigration from Mexico fell to historic lows during the worst years of the recession. After four decades that brought 12 million people from Mexico to the U.S., people started heading back home and continued doing so from 2007 to 2011.
It's impossible to pinpoint the exact number of people crossing the southwest border with Mexico, but the study by U.S. and Mexican researchers estimates that immigrants headed north in the first half of 2012 outnumbered those heading back for the first time since 2007.
"Illegal immigration is a market indicator," said Roy Beck, CEO of NumbersUSA, an Arlington, Va.-based think tank that advocates lower levels of legal and illegal immigration. "They all got gigantic networks of family and friends who are already here sending information back and forth. So this is basically another sign that the economy is picking up."
The report is a collaboration between the University of Southern California and El Colegio de la Frontera Norte in Tijuana, a Mexican government-sponsored research group. Researchers used interviews with people along the border and data from the U.S. and Mexico.
Jeffrey Passel, the senior demographer at the non-partisan Pew Hispanic Center who was not involved in the report, said the findings look legitimate. But he said the small increase in people coming from Mexico does not mean the United States is close to the massive influx of illegal immigrants seen recently. For example, in 2000, 770,000 Mexicans immigrated, legally and illegally, to the U.S. In 2010, that number fell to 140,000.
"Right now, we're in a period where Mexican migration to the U.S. is at very low levels," Passel said.
Roberto Suro, a public policy professor at USC and co-author of the report, said people cited the weakening economy and increased enforcement measures for returning to, or staying in, Mexico.
Beck said the renewed rise in illegal immigration is due partly to President Obama's immigration record. He said a new program that could allow up to 1.8 million illegal immigrants brought to the U.S. as children to have their deportations deferred sends a signal that the border remains open.
"The word has gone out that this administration is going to do all it can to keep you from having to leave the country," he said.
Ali Noorani, executive director of the National Immigration Forum, which supported Obama's deportation deferral program, pointed to the fact that Obama has set records for the number of people deported as proof that he's serious about enforcement.
"Now that our economy is recovering, the bigger question is: How is our immigration system going to serve a growing economy?" he said.
Study: Improved economy draws illegal immigrants
