By John Whitesides, Political Correspondent

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democrats lead Republicans in 11 of 15 crucial races in the November 7 election to decide which party controls the U.S. House of Representatives.

President George W. Bush's Republicans now hold a 15-seat advantage over Democrats. The polls of at least 500 likely voters in each district have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

Here is a summary of the results in each race polled:


ARIZONA 8 - Democratic former state Sen. Gabrielle Giffords holds a 45-37 percent lead over Republican anti-immigration activist Randy Graf, who won a heated September 12 primary over a more moderate candidate backed by the national party.

COLORADO 7 - In this swing suburban Denver district, Democrat Ed Perlmutter leads Republican Rick O'Donnell by 45-34 percent.

CONNECTICUT 2 - Republican Rep. Rob Simmons leads Democratic challenger Joe Courtney 44-41 percent in this heavily Democratic district, where Simmons has touted helping to save a local submarine base from closing.

CONNECTICUT 4 - Republican Rep. Christopher Shays, a staunch advocate of the Iraq war who emphasizes his independence in a Democratic-leaning district, trails Democrat Dianne Farrell by 46-41 percent.

ILLINOIS 6 - Democrat Tammy Duckworth, a veteran who lost both her legs in Iraq, leads Republican Peter Roskam 43-38 percent in suburban Chicago battle to replace retiring Republican Rep. Henry Hyde.

INDIANA 2 - Democrat Joe Donnelly leads Republican Rep. Chris Chocola, one of the party's three endangered incumbents in normally Republican Indiana, by 48-39 percent.

INDIANA 9 - In a rematch of a close 2004 race, Democratic former congressman Baron Hill leads Republican Rep. Mike Sodrel by 46-38 percent.

IOWA 1 - Republican businessman Mike Whalen leads Democratic lawyer Bruce Braley 47-34 percent for the open seat of Republican Rep. Jim Nussle, who is running for governor.

KENTUCKY 4 - Republican Rep. Geoff Davis leads former Democratic Rep. Ken Lucas 42-36 percent in a heated rematch of their 2002 race.


MINNESOTA 6 - Republican Michele Bachmann leads Democrat Patty Wetterling 46-43 percent in the race to succeed Rep. Mark Kennedy, who is running for senator.

NEW MEXICO 1 - Five-term Republican Rep. Heather Wilson trails Democrat Patricia Madrid 50-40 percent in this Albuquerque-based swing district.

NORTH CAROLINA 11 - Democrat Heath Shuler, a former pro football player, leads Republican Rep. Charles Taylor 51-40 percent.

OHIO 18 - Republican state Sen. Joy Padgett, who won a special primary September 14 to replace scandal-scarred Republican Rep. Bob Ney, trails Democrat Zack Space 45-35 percent.

PENNSYLVANIA 6 - Moderate Republican Rep. Jim Gerlach narrowly trails Democrat Lois Murphy 43-41 percent in a rematch of their close 2004 race, one of three key House contests in the Philadelphia suburbs.

VIRGINIA 2 - First-term Republican Rep. Thelma Drake trails Democrat Phil Kellam 46-42 percent in this conservative and military-oriented Virginia Beach district.

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