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Dan Walters: Schwarzenegger, like Wilson, could play the immigration card
By Dan Walters -- Bee Columnist
Published 2:15 am PST Sunday, March 19, 2006
The Republican governor of California was in trouble as he contemplated his chances of winning a second term.

Early polls said well over half of the state's voters were inclined to turn him out, and two prominent Democratic officeholders were vying to succeed him. He suffered from defection among Republican voters, stemming from ideological quarrels with conservatives who considered him to be a RINO (Republican In Name Only) who was too liberal on spending, abortion and environmental regulation.

Arnold Schwarzenegger in 2006? It could be, but it also describes the uncomfortable position in which Schwarzenegger's political mentor, Pete Wilson, found himself in early 1994, when the venerable Field Poll reported that 61 percent of voters were opposed to giving him a second term, including 40 percent of Republicans.

Nine months after the poll was taken, however, Wilson was not only re-elected, but rang up a 15 percentage-point landslide over Democrat Kathleen Brown, who earlier had enjoyed a 23-point polling lead.

While Brown hoped to make Wilson's unpopular governorship the issue, a traditional strategy for any challenger, the governor and his advisers turned it around, making crime and illegal immigration the driving issues of the campaign, helped by Brown's fumbles on both. Wilson championed a ballot measure, Proposition 187, that would deny public services to illegal immigrants, and the voters who approved it overwhelmingly also voted for him.

The conventional political wisdom ever since is that while Proposition 187 worked for Wilson that year, it poisoned the Republican Party's claim on Latino voters and sowed the seeds of the party's fall from favor in subsequent elections - a dubious rationale.

Wilson and Schwarzenegger have very disparate personalities, but their political situations are remarkably similar - centrists who are down in the polls, dealing with substantial Republican defections and having two Democratic officeholders vying to become challengers. In 1994 it was Brown, then the state treasurer, and Insurance Commissioner John Garamendi. Today it's Treasurer Phil Angelides and Controller Steve Westly.

Could the replay continue with illegal immigration becoming the decisive issue in 2006? A new Field Poll on that issue indicates that if it comes down to the wire, illegal immigration still is a hot button with the capacity to move voters, especially all-important independents.

Field found that three-quarters of Californians still consider illegal immigration to be a major concern. While Republicans are substantially more concerned than Democrats, as might be expected, independents are concerned as well.

Overall, substantially fewer Californians believe that illegal immigration has an unfavorable effect on the state than when Wilson was championing Proposition 187 (57 percent in 1994, 45 percent now), but once again, independents join Republicans in believing the effect to be negative, indicating that the issue could resonate.

If illegal immigration were to emerge as an issue, it almost certainly would center on driver's licenses. Field found that while all California adults are now closely divided on granting licenses to illegal immigrants, among voters, anti-licensure sentiment remains very strong at 62 percent to 35 percent, almost precisely the reverse of the sentiment among non-voters.

Democrats are perfectly divided on the issue at 47 percent. Republicans oppose licensure by a whopping 4-1 ratio and independents by 2-1.

Schwarzenegger campaigned against licenses for illegal immigrants in 2003, and the Legislature hastily repealed a bill that his predecessor, Gray Davis, had signed. Schwarzenegger has cited the repeal as a major accomplishment, although he's floated the concept of signing a licensure bill of some kind, a tease that irritates both pro-and anti-licensing activists.

Should Democratic front-runner Angelides become the nominee, we'll hear more about it. Angelides endorses his party's pro-licensure position and seemingly is committed to signing a licensure bill that a very liberal Legislature would easily enact.

In a heated re-election campaign, that could be as decisive for Schwarzenegger as it was for Wilson 12 years ago.


About the writer:
Reach Dan Walters at (916) 321-1195 or dwalters@sacbee.com. Back columns: www.sacbee.com/walters.