Thread: Studies, surveys examine immigration law's impact

montgomeryadvertiser.com
Written by Brian Lyman
12:34 AM, Feb. 1, 2012

The director of the University of Alabama's Center for Business of Economic Research has published a study saying Ala-
bama's tougher immigration law could cost the state many billions of dollars in lost gross domestic product and tax revenue and tens of thousands of jobs.

The sponsor of the law called the study "baloney."

Meanwhile, the Alabama Agribusiness Council is conducting a nonscientific survey of its own, asking farmers to provide information about the law's impact on agriculture.

Gov. Robert Bentley, who signed the immigration bill, HB 56, into law in 2011, and some legislative leaders said they plan to propose revisions to it during the regular session, which begins next week. But the leaders have said they have no intention of repealing the law.

So groups are trying to quantify the law's impact. Some of the provisions of the law, which put Alabama in the national spotlight, include bans on undocumented immigrants working in Alabama that were widely blamed for creating shortages of farm workers last year.

The AAC wants to see if the shortages occurred, and if so, where.

The AAC's survey is modeled on a similar survey conducted by the Georgia Agribusiness Council last year to study the impact of that state's immigration law. According to the GAC study, 46 percent of farmers had experienced a labor shortage.

Leigha Cauthen, executive director of the Alabama Agribusiness Council, said the council hoped the study would give a "snapshot" of the law's impact.

"We've had the question of how this is impacting labor, and what the bill has done," Cauthen said. "This is really going to be the first gauge of what's going on."

Cauthen acknowledged that the survey is not scientific, and likely will reflect the views of a self-selecting sample. But she said its purpose is to give a "general idea" of the situation.

The Alabama Department of Agriculture and Industries is promoting the survey.

Brett Hall, a deputy commissioner with the department, said they had heard anecdotes about labor losses created by HB 56, but lacked hard data.

"We'd like to have more substantive understanding of the economic impact and the future outlook for all sectors," Hall said. "It's a big industry. There's over $5 billion in revenue, not including forestry. We'd like to have more than anecdotal evidence."

An academician at the University of Alabama already believes he has a good idea of the law's impact.

In a paper published on the CBER's website, Sam Addy, the director of UA's Center for Business of Economic Research and an associate dean of the Culverhouse College of Commerce and Business Administration, wrote that the law's effect of driving people out of the state is hurting demand for goods and services in Alabama. That, he writes, may prove costly.

"The economy can still grow, but it will be on a lower growth path than would have been the case without the law," Addy wrote. "The reduction in aggregate demand affects business sales, employment, earnings, the state's gross domestic product (GDP), and tax collections."

Addy said in a Tuesday interview that he wanted to illustrate some of the costs of the current law and give data to legislators, who convene next week.

"Illegal immigration is an issue," said Addy, who said he did "not fault the state or the Legislature" for trying to address it. "We know it's illegal, and we know it's a problem that has to be addressed. It's how it should be addressed that's at heart of the issue."

Addy estimated that the law is costing the state between 70,000 and 140,000 jobs; between $2.3 billion and $10.8 billion in GDP, or 1.3 to 6.2 percent of the state's overall figure; and $57 million to $265 million in tax revenue.

The economist said the benefits of the law were harder to quantify. However, Addy said claims that HB 56 drove down the state unemployment rate were generally unwarranted.

"With a focus on preparing the workforce for high-skill, high-wage and fast-growing jobs, it is unreasonable to expect people to flock to lower wage jobs that are performed under tough conditions," Addy wrote.

But House Majority Leader Micky Hammon, R-Decatur, called the study "baloney" in a statement, and credited the law with driving down the state's unemployment level.

"It's clear the study overestimates the negative and underestimates the positive to skew the result toward an agenda," he said. "If 40,000 illegal workers leave the state, they free up jobs that homegrown Alabamians are happy to have."

Addy said Tuesday that he hoped the study would give legislators guidance and a sense of their options.

"People talk about (HB 56) as if there are only two options, which is repeal it or amend it," Addy said. "That's true at the core, but there's the third option of doing nothing and keeping it as it is. This report gives some insight as to what happens if we do nothing."

Federal courts have blocked some provisions of the law. A federal appeals court is scheduled to hear arguments over HB 56's constitutionality the week of Feb. 27.

Studies, surveys examine immigration law's impact | The Montgomery Advertiser | montgomeryadvertiser.com

Meanwhile, the Alabama Agribusiness Council is conducting a nonscientific survey of its own, asking farmers to provide information about the law's impact on agriculture.

Here's an idea. How about a non-scientific survey asking taxpayers if they want to continue subsidizing cheap labor.