Study: Immigration slowdown to sharply curb Calif. growth

Apr 24, 2012

Study: Immigration slowdown to sharply curb Calif. growth

By Douglas Stanglin, USA TODAY Updated 13m ago

A leveling-off of immigration rates means that California is not likely to reach 50 million residents until 2046, about 14 years later than previously expected, according to an analysis by the University of Southern California.

The last official projection, issued five years ago by the state Department of Finance, estimated that the Golden State would hit the 50 million mark in 2032.

"This is surely good news for local governments and taxpayers who are struggling to keep up with the costs of growth," says Dowell Myers, co-author of the report. "These projections suggest there is more time to plan a much better future for California."

READ: The full report @ http://www.usc.edu/schools/price/fut...rojections.pdf

The report by the USC PopDynamics Research Group finds that the total percentage of Californians who are foreign born is expected to stay at 27% of the total population for 18 years, in sharp contrast to the marked rise in the previous two decades.

The analysis also estimates that growth among California's seniors, those 65 and older, will quadruple within the next 20 years.

Among the main working age population, from 25 to 64, growth is expected to slow, which means that almost all of the projected growth will come from native-born children of immigrants, or second generation immigrants.

"The new generation of workers, taxpayers and home buyers will have been California-educated with the support of California taxpayers, unlike in past decades when many workers were imported from other states or nations," the report says.

Study: Immigration slowdown to sharply curb Calif. growth