SEPTEMBER 17, 2010, 2:54 P.M. ET.

Swedish Anti-Immigrant Party Steals Vote Limelight

By ERIK DURHAN And JENS HANSEGARD

STOCKHOLM—A Swedish anti-immigrant party is expected to win its first-ever parliamentary seats in the country's election on Sunday, in the latest example of rising anti-immigrant sentiment in Europe.

Voter response to the far-right Sweden Democrats could even rob Sweden's ruling center-right Alliance of its majority, forcing it to seek new coalition partners or form a weak minority government.

Opinion polls suggest Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt's Alliance hold a clear lead over the left-leaning Social Democrats and Greens. However, with many voters still undecided, analysts said the Alliance could not be sure of winning an outright majority in parliament.

A victory for the Alliance, a grouping of conservative and liberal parties, would mark only the second time in nearly 80 years that a non-Social Democratic government has won a second consecutive term in office.

But much of the focus in Sweden's election campaign surrounds the Sweden Democrats and their populist campaign against immigration, particularly of Muslims. Opinion polls suggest the party could win around 5.7% of the vote, breaking the 4% threshold for taking seats in parliament for the first time. The party, led by 31-year-old Jimmie Ã…kesson, believes Sweden's liberal immigration policies have failed and are putting social and economic strains on the country. He has campaigned on a platform which would drastically reduce Sweden's intake of asylum seekers and their families.

While the party is not yet as popular as far-right counterparts in Denmark or the Netherlands, its increasing support from just 2.9% four years ago signals a significant shift in the post-war Swedish political landscape that has been dominated by some of Europe's most liberal social policies.

In 1991, New Democracy, a populist party advocating among other issues restrictive immigration policies, managed to get seats in parliament, but lost them in the next election three years later after sharpening its anti-immigrant rhetoric.

The Sweden Democrats' rise is a protest vote against mainstream parties' "reluctance to talk openly about the problems that immigration has contributed to in Sweden," said Nicholas Aylott, political scientist at Sodertorn University.

The center-left opposition coalition, including the Social Democratic Party which has governed Sweden for most of the last 50 years, has seen its support fall in the past two years and it now trails the Alliance in polls. In the latest poll-of-polls by national broadcaster SVT, the Alliance was forecast to win 50.1% of the popular vote, with the Red-Green opposition receiving just 42.3%.

If the Alliance falls short of an outright majority on Sunday, resulting in a hung parliament, the Sweden Democrats could enjoy a "kingmaker" role, some analysts say.

However, both Mr. Reinfeldt and Social Democrat leader Mona Sahlin have ruled out aligning themselves with the Sweden Democrats. Mr. Reinfeldt said in a television debate this week that he would rather hold talks with the Green Party.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... 17320.html