Texas braces for major Supreme Court decisions on immigration, ObamaCare

Texas braces for major Supreme Court decisions on immigration, ObamaCare

Things have not been going well for President Obama. Employment news is glum, stock markets have tanked, Europe is facing an economic contagion that could threaten America’s tepid recovery and the president is looking weak as a defiant Russia re-arms Syria’s desperate dictators.

And if sinking poll numbers aren’t enough to give the White House political gurus a case of political heartburn, they can pop some Prilosec and prepare for more news that’s out of their control: The Supreme Court is preparing to deliver two landmark rulings over the next ten days that could shake the Obama presidency and reshape the 2012 election year.

Before adjourning for the summer on June 25, the nation’s highest court is set to pass judgment on two of the most politically charged cases of the past decade — the “ObamaCare” health reform law that is the first-term president’s proudest legislative achievement and the tough Arizona immigration enforcement law that has enraged Latino civil rights groups and hard-core Democratic activists.

“The impact is just going to be huge, whichever way it cuts,” said Dallas attorney Bill Mateja, a senior official in the Justice Department under President George W. Bush. “The ramifications of these decisions, one way or another, are monstrous and hard to predict.”

While the precise political impact of the Supreme Court’s rulings are indeed hard to predict — considering the decisions have not yet been announced — legal scholars and political analysts are in agreement that the controversial cases are likely to alter the dynamics of the presidential contest and force the economy-focused White House political team to re-calibrate its policy priorities.

For at least the immediate aftermath of the high court decisions, public attention will be diverted from the struggling economy to two current back-burner issues, illegal immigration and the health-care law that united Republicans in opposition and cost Democrats their House majority in 2010.

Twin setbacks for Obama would focus attention on the failures and futility of the president’s first three years in office: the time and political capital spent on health reform, and the administration’s inability to win comprehensive immigration reform when Democrats had complete control of Washington. University of Houston law professor Michael A. Olivas laments “the failed promise of comprehensive immigration reform.”

Still, experts say, Obama could gain politically from the Arizona immigration case — particularly if his administration suffers a legal setback.

Lower courts struck down four key provisions of the 2010 law, including a requirement that law enforcement officers ask a person they’ve stopped for immigration documents if the officer has a “reasonable suspicion” the person is in the country illegally. The Supreme Court could make a sweeping decision or decide the narrow question of whether Arizona’s attempt to secure its border is trumped by federal law.

“The downside of a GOP victory in the immigration decision is that it may further chill Hispanic voters’ views of the party and its presidential candidate,” said Steven E. Schier, a political scientist at Carleton College. “Given the growing Hispanic presence in the electorate, that may produce big GOP trouble with a key voting bloc.”

The health-care decision poses more political risks to the president.

A defeat on health care “could give Obama a rallying point” to energize the Democrats’ liberal base by blaming the Republican-dominated Supreme Court for playing partisan politics, said Rutgers University polling expert Cliff Zukin.

“It would put the problem back on the agenda, and people do think there is a problem (with health care costs),” he added.

But analysts say a decision striking down the entire “Affordable Care Act” — or even its policy core, the requirement that Americans either buy private insurance or pay a fine — could hurt the president’s standing among undecided swing voters who are wary of government-imposed solutions.

“A rejection of ObamaCare would enable Republicans to argue that the president wasted much of his term on a power grab when he should have been spending his time and energy trying to create jobs,” said John J. Pitney Jr., a political scientist at Claremont McKenna College in California.

On the other hand, a partial or complete victory for the president would give opponents of the law “even more incentive to work hard for Romney,” he added, because a Republican president would then be needed to repeal or replace Obama’s plan. Either way, Republicans benefit politically.

Still, most political analysts expect the economy to remain the dominant issue in November, even if health care and immigration return to the front burner. The Supreme Court’s action in June “might change the narrative now,” says Rutgers’ Zukin, “but it won’t change the ultimate narrative.”

Texas braces for major Supreme Court decisions on immigration, ObamaCare | Texas on the Potomac | a Chron.com blog