Thread: EXPOSED: The Ugly Truth Behind New Jobs Report The Obama-Backing Media Won't Tell You

EXPOSED: The Ugly Truth Behind New Jobs Report The Obama-Backing Media Won't Tell You
Look a little deeper than the glossy surface reflection of Obama's self-congratulatory talking points...
westernjournalism.com


EXPOSED: The Ugly Truth Behind New Jobs Report The Obama-Backing Media Won’t Tell You

Look a little deeper than the glossy surface reflection of Obama's self-congratulatory talking points...


Norvell Rose — October 3, 2014



Whenever a new government report comes out that gives the left-leaning media any reason to raise a cheer for the Obama administration, you can bet the progressive chorus will begin to sing the praises of their champion.
And so it goes after today’s release of the latest jobs creation and unemployment report from the Labor Department.

Right on cue, outlets such as The Huffington Post sound a triumphant trumpet for the latest figures — 248,000 jobs created last month, with the country’s unemployment rate falling to 5.9%.
Here’s how The Huffington Post helped to lead the cheerleading for Obama, citing a report by the reliably pro-administration Associated Press:

The mostly positive government report also showed that employers added 69,000 more jobs in July and August than previously estimated.
The rate fell from 6.1 percent in August and is now close to 5.5 percent, which many economists consider a healthy level.
The improved figures come after President Barack Obama touted his administration’s economic achievements in a speech Thursday. The economy is the top issue in voters’ minds as the November elections near.

So, right after the president’s speech at Northwestern University in which he extolled the virtues of his economic policies and programs…right when polling shows that the economy and the jobs market are at the top of most voters’ list of concerns…right as the real pressure mounts on vulnerable Democrats heading into crucial midterm elections — we get this “mostly positive” government report.
Well, let’s look a little deeper than the glossy surface reflection of Obama’s self-congratulatory talking points — the ones that make for the kind of glib arguments that miss the underlying fundamentals — the fundamentals showing a perilous weakness.

Beneath those top-line talking-point numbers — new jobs, lower unemployment — beneath those figures lies a much-more telling statistic. The labor force participation rate — the not-so-rosy number that Obama and his cheerleaders in the media don’t want to shout about.
Zerohedge.com reveals the ugly truth — that, once again last month, a ton of folks dropped out of the U.S. labor market. They became a drain on the system rather than contributors to it. Instead of paying taxes, they’ll suck up government benefits funded from tax revenues paid by others.

While by now everyone should know the answer, for those curious why the US unemployment rate just slid once more to a meager 5.9%, the lowest print since the summer of 2008, the answer is the same one we have shown every month since 2010: the collapse in the labor force participation rate, which in September slide from an already three decade low 62.8% to 62.7% – the lowest in over 36 years, matching the February 1978 lows.
And while according to the Household Survey, 232K people found jobs, what is more disturbing is that the people not in the labor force, rose to a new record high, increasing by 315,000 to 92.6 million!

So, far more people last month left the labor force than joined or rejoined it. Far more Americans gave up on finding work and dropped out.
The truth is, America is working less…even as Obama is gloating more.

Photo Credit: Ruslan Guzov | shutterstock.com


http://www.westernjournalism.com/exp...dia-wont-tell/

Labor Participation Rate Drops To 36 Year Low; Record 92.6 Million Americans Not In Labor Force

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/03/2014 15:55 -0400

While by now everyone should know the answer, for those curious why the US unemployment rate just slid once more to a meager 5.9%, the lowest print since the summer of 2008, the answer is the same one we have shown every month since 2010: the collapse in the labor force participation rate, which in September slid from an already three decade low 62.8% to 62.7% - the lowest in over 36 years, matching the February 1978 lows. And while according to the Household Survey, 232,000 people found jobs, what is more disturbing is that the people not in the labor force, rose to a new record high, increasing by 315,000 to 92.6 million!
And that's how you get a fresh cycle low in the unemployment rate.



So the next time Obama asks you if you are "better off now than 6 years ago" show him this chart of employment to the overall population: it speaks louder than the president ever could.




http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-1...s-not-labor-fo

Record 55,553,000 Women Not Participating in Labor Force

October 3, 2014 - 9:48 AM
By Ali Meyer
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(CNSNews.com) - A record 55,553,000 women 16 years and older did not participate in the labor force in September, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This means that 55,553,000 women in the United States did not have a job and did not actively seek one in the past four weeks.

The number of women not in the labor force increased from 55,345,000 in August to 55,553,000 in September, an increase of 208,000.

The participation rate for women also dipped in September to 56.7 percent; it has not been this low since September of 1988 when it was 56.6 percent. This means that only 56.7 percent of women participated in the labor force by either having a job during the month or actively seeking one.




The number of employed women decreased from 68,525,000 in August to 68,499,000 in September, a decline of 26,000. However, the number of unemployed women also declined from 4,466,000 in August to 4,390,000 in September, which means there were 76,000 less unemployed women in September.

The unemployment rate for women declined from 6.1 in August to 6.0 in September.

The business and economic reporting of CNSNews.com is funded in part with a gift made in memory of Dr. Keith C. Wold.

http://cnsnews.com/news/article/ali-...ng-labor-force

Is history repeating itself?

Did The BLS Give Obama A Major Election 2012 Gift?

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(Photo credit: Wikipedia)


Just one month before the 2012 election, the Obama campaign received a major illegal campaign contribution from the Commerce Department. The Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on October 5, 2012 that the nation’s unemployment rate suddenly dropped sharply over the prior month, from 8.1% to 7.8%. That supposedly ended the longest period in the nation’s history with unemployment over 8%, except for the Great Depression, which occurred under President Obama.

Just before the election. How convenient.

That was totally unbelievable at the time, and I and others said so then. In my Forbes column the very next week, “President Obama’s Unemployment Still Stuck at 14.7%,” I noted how inconsistent the supposed unemployment drop was with other contemporaneous economic data. The sharp unemployment drop supposedly resulted from a total of 114,000 new jobs created in September, 2012, according to the Establishment Survey of business payrolls of the Bureau of Labor Statistics that the Obama Administration had been emphasizing throughout its first term. But economist John Lott noted atFoxnews.com that the working age population had grown by 206,000 in September, 2012. With normal labor force participation during a recovery from a steep recession, that would have required 138,000 new jobs that month, just to keep pace with population growth, let alone to reduce the unemployment rate.

Moreover, the BLS also reported for September, 2012 that the number of full-time jobs declined by 216,000 in that month. The supposed 0.3% drop in unemployment that month was also inconsistent with that data. The unemployment rate had never before in American history declined by nearly a third of a point in one month, while the economy was losing over 200,000 full time jobs in the same month.

That supposed drop in unemployment in September, 2012 was also wildly inconsistent with GDP growth at the time, reported as a meager 1.3% in the second quarter of that year, in long term decline from 1.6% over the first half of that year, 2% in 2011, and 2.4% in 2010. President Obama’s pitiful economic growth record has been only half of normal long term economic growth for America, and only a third or less of the historic growth from a deep recession, such as the Reagan recovery from the 1981-1982 recession.

The American historical record over the nation’s entire history has been the deeper the recession, the stronger the recovery. Too many people are giving Obama a pass on his disastrous economic performance because the recession was so bad when he entered office. That view is held predominantly among the low information voters who are literally clueless about the realities of the nation they live in. The severity of the recession was precisely the foundation for a booming economic recovery to come out of it, which the well informed Obama who does know that real American economic history was expecting. But Obama’s consistently anti-growth economic policies got in his own way, and prevented that recovery, which is still baked in the cake, and will break out spectacularly, once America is liberated from the current, Obama Democrat, economic repression.

The statistical decline in the unemployment rate for September, 2012, came out of a supposed highly implausible 873,000 new jobs for that month reported in the separate, Household Survey, which is conducted for the BLS by the Census Bureau. That is highly inconsistent with the results of that Survey for both before and after September, 2012. That same Household Survey reported adecline of 119,000 jobs in August, 2012, and a decline of 195,000 jobs in July, 2012, when the Obama Administration told us the Household Survey should be ignored because it was highly unreliable.

Moreover, if the Household Survey found 873,000 new jobs created in September, 2012, that should have been followed by similar increases for quite some time. The economy shows no record of suddenly creating nearly one million new jobs for a month, and then going back to the doldrums thereafter. But that is exactly what the Obama economy has done, once Obama squeaked through to reelection.

But now comes evidence that the September, 2012 jobs report was doctored after all. The New York Post reported on November 18 of this year,

“Just two years before the Presidential election, the Census Bureau had caught an employee fabricating data that went into the unemployment report….And a knowledgeable source says the deception went beyond one employee – that it escalated at the time President Obama was seeking reelection in 2012 and continues today. ‘He’s not the only one,’ said the source, who asked to remain anonymous for now but is willing to talk with the Labor Department and Congress if asked.
Post reporter John Crudele added, “The Census employee is Julius Brockman, according to confidential documents obtained by The Post. Brockman told me in an interview this past weekend that he was told to make up information by higher-ups at the Census.”

The next day, November 19, The Washington Examiner reported,

“The House Oversight Committee is demanding answers from the director of the Census Bureau after a news outlet reported that Census employees may have fabricated data for a jobs report that showed a significant drop in unemployment under President Obama just a month from Election Day 2012. Committee Chairman Darrell Issa, R-Calif., wrote Tuesday to Census Bureau Director John Thompson calling the allegations in the New York Post ‘shocking.’ Issa requested information about Julius Brockman, the employee the Post said fabricated data after being unable to reach the people who had the information he needed….Issa wants all of Brockman’s emails, his list of supervisors and any material related to a government investigation of Brockman’s actions, which according to the Post took place in 2010 and escalated in the months leading up to the election.”

That same day, November 19, Crudele reported in the New York Post,

“I don’t know how high up in the Census Bureau the orders to fake unemployment survey data came from, but the director of the Philadelphia region was aware of those charges against one of his field representatives back in 2010. Fernando E. Armstrong, the regional director at the time, admitted as much in an internal Census report I have reviewed. And that field representative, Julius Brockman, who filed as many as 100 fake reports a month – and admitted to me faking household survey reports – was not the only field rep to do so, according to a Census source. And the source insists that the faking of the household survey, which could fudge the unemployment rate, is still happening.”

Crudele added, “The source told me that ‘multiple people’ were doing what Brockman was doing – making up people and attaching jobs so Census could meet the quota of interviews required by the Labor Department. Brockman said he was told to falsify data by a supervisor. And Brockman got paid by the interview, so cutting corners and filing more surveys got him more pay.”

The best evidence that shenanigans and falsification of data was going on in the Commerce Department in September, 2012 is the data analysis discussed above, which appeared in my own Forbes column back in October, 2012. And I stand ready to testify to explain and point all that out yet again.

Obama apologists have already begun to attack and disparage the sources of these reports of Obama Administration falsification and fabrication of data, which may very well amount to federal crimes. But these apologists themselves have been given a free ride for far too long, and are now vastly contributing to the accelerating economic, and military, decline of America. They need to be directly called out, and held to account, for what they are doing to the rest of us.

America is suffering today from a rapidly gathering stock market bubble that is even more obvious than the housing bubble was in 2006, if not 2007. And with the appointment of Janet Yellen to head the Fed, President Obama is doubling down on the very same policies creating that bubble, and recreating the foundation for a much bigger financial crisis and crash than in 2008.

Moreover, the foolish flower child Obama/Kerry policies regarding Iran’s development of nuclear weapons are creating the foundation for a much, much ruder awakening one morning than on 9/11. More on these developing American tragedies in future columns.

Just remember, you were forewarned here of the lies you were being told during Campaign 2012. And you can now be forewarned here of even greater, developing American tragedies than that election, the greatest political error of the American people in history, is turning out to be.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/peterferrara/2013/11/27/did-the-bls-give-obama-a-major-election-2012-gift/

Census Bureau faked jobs report ahead of 2012 election: report




By Cheryl K. Chumley - The Washington Times - Tuesday, November 19, 2013

U.S. government job numbers were intentionally skewed to paint a brighter economic picture in the lead-up to the 2012 presidential election, a source told the New York Post.

The number manipulation involved several workers with the U.S. Census Bureau, who reportedly kept quiet about the false information that fed into the dramatic August-to-September unemployment drop, from 8.1 percent to 7.8 percent, the unnamed source told the Post.

The source said he would testify to Congress and speak to the Labor Department about what he claimed was falsified data, the Post reported.

The source claimed that two years before President Obama won his re-election campaign, the Census Bureau actually caught one of its workers changing and falsifying jobs’ numbers. But the problem didn’t end; rather, the skewing of statistics only intensified in the months leading up to the election.

The employee who was caught, Julius Buckmon, told the Post that he actually skewed numbers at the behest of his bosses.

The Census Bureau didn’t respond to requests for comment.

Read more: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/...#ixzz3FBf90Gr5
Follow us: @washtimes on Twitter

The October 2012 Pre-Election Jobs Report Was Faked



Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/18/2013 23:29 -0400

On Friday October 5, 2012, the BLS released what was arguably the most important report of Obama's first term: the final jobs number, and unemployment rate before the November 2012 presidential election. As so many predicted, it "plunged" from 8.1% to 7.8% allowing the president to conduct countless teleprompted speeches praising the success of his economic recovery. It also served as the basis for the infamous Jack Welch tweet: "Unbelievable jobs numbers..these Chicago guys will do anything..can't debate so change numbers" and prompted the pro-Obama media to quickly brand all those who questioned it as conspiracy theorists. The Atlantic did perhaps the most exemplary job in its task to discredit the "random anonymous cranks" who challenged the bullshit spewed by the administration's manipulative economic data reporting apparatus. From The Atlantic's Unemployment Plummets To 7.8%.

The unemployment rate plunged to 7.8 percent in September, its lowest level since Barack Obama took office in 2009. In addition, the Bureau of Labor Statistics made big revisions to data from previous months, showing huge increases in the number of jobs being created over the last three months. Total employment from the "household survey" also showed an increase of 873,000 jobs last month, the biggest one-month jump since June of 1983.

Not only has the unemployment rate gone down, but the report also undercut one of the key criticisms of previous drops in the number—that it was because the "participation rate" went down. That rate has actually gone back up, which means unemployment is down because people are actually getting work, not because they've stopped looking. Public sector jobs also went up, as did the average number of hours worked per week.

This report looks so good for President Obama that conspiracy theorists are already alleging that the fix is in. And not just random anonymous cranks, but supposedly serious business people, like former General Electric CEO Jack Welch.




He wasn't alone:

Keith Urbahn @keithurbahn
Follow
No, there's nothing at all curious about the last jobs report diving to 7.8% unemployment before the election.
7:34 AM - 5 Oct 2012





Rick Santelli of CNBC, noting that the rate has dropped below the magical number of 8 percent, said, "You can let America decide how they got there." When one side is convinced that something smells rotten, you know it's good news for the other guy.

As we noted his comment at the time...

"the current trend of these [jobs] numbers is so different from the current trend of any other numbers. If you were looking for conspiracies (and I'm not), you only need to change a certain number."

Of course, who cares if the "conspiracy theories" were substantiated by actual data. Such as the following from the same day:

An Odd Arima-X-12 Statistical Aberration?

Here's a peculiar statistical aberration:

• Household Survey people employed: +873,000 (source)
• Part-time jobs for economic reasons: +582,000 (source)

-> 582,000 divided by 873,000 = 0.666666666666*

Aka: precisely two thirds. Whatever are the odds... Goalseeking much Arima-X-12?

Or this also from the same day:

Reason For Today's Unemployment Rate Plunge: Part-Time Jobs For Economic Reasons Surge Most Since QE1 Announcement

We already noted the absolutely stunning surge in reported Household Survey jobs which "added" 873,000 jobs, or the most since 2003 and the second most in the past decade, which was just a little bit off the Household Survey used in the monthly NFP jobs changes, which came at 114,000, or about 8 times less. But what was the reason for this epic jump in Household survey jobs? Simple, and those who have read our series on America's transition to a part-time worker society know the answer. The reason is that the number of part-time people employed for economic reasons soared by582,000 to 8,613,000, the most since October 2011, and the largest one month jump since February 2009, when "restoring" confidence in the economy was all the rage... and just before the Fed announced the full blown QE1 in March of 2009. Odd symmetry.



So putting it all together, what does this mean for the true state of the US economy? Recall back in September one of our Charts of the Day was the number of Unemployed and Underemployed for the month of August, which was 25.8 million. Readers may be surprised to learn that when putting it all together, in September this number increased to 26.2 million.

Or this also from the same day:

The Strangest Number In Today's Jobs Number

While we already presented the explanation for the dramatic drop in today's unemployment report (almost entirely driven by the surge in part-time jobs for economic reasons, hardly a thing to be proud of as more and more full time jobs, especially those on Wall Street, are a thing of the past, while the transition to a part-time worker society has been documented extensively in the past here), there is another number that is by far the most perplexing in today's NFP dataset: that showing the employment of workers in the 20-24 year age category (both seasonally adjustedand unadjusted). See if you can spot the outlier in the chart below.

And many more other such reports posted on this site on the same day, alleging fabrication which as it turns out courtesy of the just released stunning disclosure by the Post, were absolutely spot on since the number was, you guessed it, manipulated.

The Post's John Crudele reveals the details on a data manipulation scandal, which we exposed back in October 2012, but this time with the actual "dirty details" that has the potential to be so big, Obama will need to start another YouTube-fabricated, false flag war just to distract from this latest scandal.
From The Post's "Census ‘faked’ 2012 election jobs report"

In the home stretch of the 2012 presidential campaign, from August to September, the unemployment rate fell sharply — raising eyebrows from Wall Street to Washington.

The decline — from 8.1 percent in August to 7.8 percent in September — might not have been all it seemed. The numbers, according to a reliable source, were manipulated.

And the Census Bureau, which does the unemployment survey, knew it.

Just two years before the presidential election, the Census Bureau had caught an employee fabricating data that went into the unemployment report, which is one of the most closely watched measures of the economy.

And a knowledgeable source says the deception went beyond that one employee — that it escalated at the time President Obama was seeking reelection in 2012 and continues today.

“He’s not the only one,” said the source, who asked to remain anonymous for now but is willing to talk with the Labor Department and Congress if asked.

The Census employee caught faking the results is Julius Buckmon, according to confidential Census documents obtained by The Post. Buckmon told me in an interview this past weekend that he was told to make up information by higher-ups at Census.

Ironically, it was Labor’s demanding standards that left the door open to manipulation.

Labor requires Census to achieve a 90 percent success rate on its interviews — meaning it needed to reach 9 out of 10 households targeted and report back on their jobs status.

Census currently has six regions from which surveys are conducted. The New York and Philadelphia regions, I’m told, had been coming up short of the 90 percent.

Philadelphia filled the gap with fake interviews.

“It was a phone conversation — I forget the exact words — but it was, ‘Go ahead and fabricate it’ to make it what it was,” Buckmon told me.

Census, under contract from the Labor Department, conducts the household survey used to tabulate the unemployment rate.

Interviews with some 60,000 household go into each month’s jobless number, which currently stands at 7.3 percent. Since this is considered a scientific poll, each one of the households interviewed represents 5,000 homes in the US.

Buckmon, it turns out, was a very ambitious employee. He conducted three times as many household interviews as his peers, my source said.

By making up survey results — and, essentially, creating people out of thin air and giving them jobs — Buckmon’s actions could have lowered the jobless rate.

Buckmon said he filled out surveys for people he couldn’t reach by phone or who didn’t answer their doors.

But, Buckmon says, he was never told how to answer the questions about whether these nonexistent people were employed or not, looking for work, or have given up.

But people who know how the survey works say that simply by creating people and filling out surveys in their name would boost the number of folks reported as employed.

Census never publicly disclosed the falsification. Nor did it inform Labor that its data was tainted.

“Yes, absolutely they should have told us,” said a Labor spokesman. “It would be normal procedure to notify us if there is a problem with data collection.”

* * *

During the 2010 Census report — an enormous and costly survey of the entire country that goes on for a full year — I suspected (and wrote in a number of columns) that Census was inexplicably hiring and firing temporary workers.

I suspected that this turnover of employees was being done purposely to boost the number of new jobs being report each month. (The Labor Department does not use the Census Bureau for its other monthly survey of new jobs — commonly referred to as the Establishment Survey.)

Last week I offered to give all the information I have, including names, dates and charges to Labor’s inspector general.

I’m waiting to hear back from Labor.

I hope the next stop will be Congress, since manipulation of data like this not only gives voters the wrong impression of the economy but also leads lawmakers, the Federal Reserve and companies to make uninformed decisions.

Don't hold your breath: the reason is that this particular instance manipulation is merely the tip of the iceberg - since virtually all data out of the BLS is manipulated and fabricated, as we report each and every month, the last thing the legislative and certainly the executive want is to offer the general public a glimpse of just how deep the rabbit hole goes. Because it goes very, very deep.

One can only hope this forces at least some more people to wake up about the sad farce this once great nation has devolved to in its quest to destroy the middle class.

The only real good news, as noted above, is that yet another conspiracy theory is forever cast into the void, and going forward the only thing the random, but manipulated, number generator out of the Bureau Of Lies And Subterfuge will be good for, is to prod the just as pathetic HFT algos into a buying frenzy when month after month the economy is painted with rosy brushes, even as millions forever drop out of the labor force, never to return.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-1...port-was-faked

September Jobs: Some Numbers Bubblevision Didn’t Mention



Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/04/2014 09:05 -0400

Submitted by David Stockman of ContraCorner
September Jobs: Some Numbers Bubblevision Didn’t Mention
The September establishment survey showed a 248k job gain, but that was the seasonally maladjusted, preliminarily guesstimated version which will be revised in October and November, and then re-benchmarked several more times in the coming years. So let’s take a pass on the enthusiasm with respect to this fleeting monthly delta and consider a couple of trend points evident in this morning’s release—-data points which aren’t going to get revised away and which actually provide some fundamental insight about the actual “employment situation” and the true condition of the US economy.
My favorite number is right at the top of the BLS table and it’s 155.9 million. That is the civilian labor force number for September and it compares to 154.9 million reported for October 2008 way back when the financial crisis was just erupting. The reason that rather tepid gain of 1 million labor force participants over the course of six years is important is that during the same period the working age civilian population (over 16 years) rose from 234.6 million to 248.4 million—-or by 14 million in round terms.
That’s right, the labor force grew by only 7% of the gain in adult population. That explains, of course, why the labor force participation rate of 66.0% back at the time of the crisis has plunged to a 36-year low of 62.7% in September. Or to put it another way, the employment-to-population ratio of 59.0% last month compared to just under 62% six years ago and 64.2% in the year 2000.
Needless to say, that huge 500 basis point decline in the true jobs ratio is dramatically more important than the monthly jobs delta—even if the later did trigger a run-the-stops burst by the robo traders within seconds of the release. The fact is, the plummeting rate of employment among the adult population means that the effective rate of taxation on labor hours worked has risen sharply, and will continue to do so as the baby boom ages.
So you don’t have to be a raving supply-sider to realize that a rising tax rate on labor—expressed as either current taxes or future debt service— as far as the eye can see is not a formula for the kind of perpetual earnings growth that is being capitalized by today’s bubblicious stock markets; and that’s especially true in a world crawling with cheap workers and massive excess production capacity stimulated by 14 years of financial repression and ultra-cheap capital by the world’s central banks.
Indeed, the single most important number in today’s report is 102 million, which is the rounded sum of adults either not in the labor force or unemployed, and it amounts to 41% of the adult population. Stated differently, that’s the number of adults who do not contribute to current production and must be supported either by family breadwinners or the state—-and nowadays especially the latter.
Indeed, when these trends for prime age workers (25-54 years) are viewed, the case is even more compelling. The employment ratio for that group is at 1982 levels——a ratio that prevailed when the female labor force participation rate was still climbing strongly. On a sex-adjusted basis, the prime age employment ratio has never been as low as it has remained since the end of the Great Recession.

Among other things, these dismal employment ratio numbers tells you why the Wall Street patter about PE multiples being at or below historical norms is so wrong-headed. The capitalization rate for the American economy should be falling because the dependency burden faced by workers and entrepreneurs is soaring at rates never before witnessed. Going back to September 2000, for example, there were only 76 million adults not in the labor force or unemployed, and that represented just 35.8% of the adult population of 213 million.
This means there has been a 26 million gain in the number of adults not working—-even part-time—during that 14 year period. About 10 million of that gain is accounted for by retired workers on social security—-a figure which has risen from 28.5 million to 38.5 million during the interim. But where are the other 16 million? The answer is on disability (+4.5 million), food stamps (+25 million), survivors and dependents benefits, other forms of public aid, living in parents’ basements on student loans or not, or on the streets.
There should be no mistake about the implications of these baleful trends as once again reinforced in today’s “jobs Friday” report. They do not represent merely a social problem or the fact that Washington’s fiscal calamity is going to get steadily worse in the years ahead. They also embody an endemic economic problem and staggering challenge to the Keynesian money printing regime now incumbent in Washington.
In the first place, the massive monetary experiment since 2000—which has seen the Fed’s balance sheet grow from $500 billion to $4.5 trillion or by 9X—-has not caused macro-economic performance to improve. The employment ratio has plunged; full-time breadwinner jobs have actually shrunk; total labor hours employed have been stagnant; real GDP has grown at only 1.8% annually for 14 years—compared to 4% annually between 1956 and 1970; and real net capital investment is 20% below its turn of the century level.

Breadwinner Economy Jobs- Click to enlarge


So what is really embodied in today’s report is more evidence that America’s dependency ratio is still rising and that the already crushing burden of the welfare state will weigh ever more heavily on an economy that is visibly failing as measured by any of the fundamental trends of performance. Indeed, it is well to recall that even today—after what the clueless occupant of the White House claims as 10 million new jobs when 90% of that number, in fact, represents “born again” jobs relative to the 2007 peak—-there are 110 million Americans living in households receiving means-tested benefits and 158 million in households that receive transfer payments of all types.
Yet as the burden of taxation and public debt resulting from these trends weigh ever more heavily, it leaves the mad money printers resident in the Eccles Building stranded in an impossible corner.
Unless they wish to destroy the monetary system and keep money market rates at zero forever, they will have to normalize interest rates. And rising interest rates—eventually 300-400 basis points at minimum— on top of rising taxes do not amount to a formula for booming growth. Or even any meaningful economic growth at all.
In that context, capitalizing S&P earnings at 20X reported profits on the eve of the coming storm is a fool’s errand. And you can look it up. What really counts for growth and stock market value beyond the day trader’s horizon is all right there in the September jobs report—-even if they didn’t mention it on bubblevision.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-1...80%99t-mention