Thread: Is A Greek Military Overhaul An Attempt To Prevent A Coup

Is A Greek Military Overhaul An Attempt To Prevent A Coup?

Submitted by Tyler Durden
11/01/2011 13:29 -0400
Comments: 131 / Reads: 10,046

While the calls for G-Pap's resignation grow louder and Merkozy's blood pressure rises, we couldn't help but notice a potentially significant action among the top military leaders in Greece. Athens News reports that the Minister of Defense is proposing a complete replacement of the country's 'top brass'.

From Athens News: Top Brass Replaced: http://www.athensnews.gr/portal/8/49916

In a surprise move, the defence minister proposed on Tuesday evening the complete replacement of the country’s top brass.

At an extraordinary meeting of the Government Council of Foreign Affairs and Defence (Kysea), which comprises the prime minister and other key cabinet members, Defence Minister Panos Beglitis proposed the following changes to the army, navy and air force and the general staff:

General Ioannis Giagkos, chief of the Greek National Defence General Staff, to be replaced by Lieutenant General Michalis Kostarakos

Lieutenant General Fragkos Fragkoulis, chief of the Greek Army General Staff, to be replaced by lieutenant general Konstantinos Zazias

Lieutenant General Vasilios Klokozas, chief of the Greek Air Force, to be replaced by air marshal Antonis Tsantirakis

Vice-Admiral Dimitrios Elefsiniotis, chief of the Greek Navy General Staff, to be replaced by Rear-Admiral Kosmas Christidis

It is understood that the personnel changes took many members of the government and of the armed forces by surprise.

What better way to consolidate power than to bring in 'your guys' as the country lurches closer to all out chaos?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/greek-mil ... event-coup

Independent Strategy On "Greece The Ungovernable" - "Go short the euro and PIIGS debt — and hold on to your seats!"

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/01/2011 09:59 -0400
Comments: 73 / Reads: 7,531

default European Central Bank Eurozone Greece Gross Domestic Product International Monetary Fund Italy Portugal Recession

Must read update on Greece from Independent Strategy

Greece the ungovernable

The Greek PM's call for a referendum on the bailout package reveals that Greece is becoming increasingly ungovernable under the weight of fiscal austerity and recession.

Expect weeks of uncertainty in markets and rising contagion in other weaker EMU states. If the vote is lost, Greece will default. Stay short the euro and PIGS debt.

The decision by Greek PM Papandreou to call for a referendum on the latest Greek bailout deal shows that Greece is becoming ungovernable. The PASOK leader made this decision because riots in the streets, increasing refusal by civil servants to implement the austerity measures and the likely loss of his majority in parliament made the survival of the government unlikely within weeks or months.

So Papandreou has gone for broke. He hopes that by winning a vote on the bailout plan he can shut up the opposition both in parliament and on the streets. But this high-risk strategy threatens to bring the whole house of Euro cards down.

At best, we face two months of uncertainty before the vote. The Greek parliament must approve the call for a referendum and the President must agree. And then it depends on how the referendum question is worded. If it is ‘do you want to accept the latest bail out plan’ then the answer will be a resounding no. If they word it so it says ‘do you wish to remain in the Euro zone’ then the answer will be a resounding yes.

At worst, Greece may not even make it to mid- January before there is a disorderly default. Parliament could defeat a vote of confidence in the government on Friday and Greece would be plunged into elections, with the opposition likely to win on a programme of ‘renegotiating’ the bailout plan so tortuously agreed with the Euro leaders.

Also the latest tranche of official funding from the EU and the IMF under the old Greek bailout plan could be frozen if the government falls. Under IMF rules, it cannot disburse a tranche if there is no government. The EU would have to step up to the plate and provide all the funding until the election or referendum is over. Without this money, Greece would be bankrupt.



And just imagine if Greece heads into two months of a referendum campaign with riots and demonstrations in the streets. A run on Greek banks — Argentina-style — would become very likely. It’s true that the rich and many corporations have already moved their euros abroad, but the populace at large would soon be running to get their euros under mattresses fast if they thought that Greece was set to default and leave the euro.

The Greek public debt ratio may be heading towards 180% of GDP next year without the bailout plan, but if Greece leaves the Eurozone with a no-vote in the referendum, a New Drachma devalued by 50% or more would double that debt ratio.

The optimistic scenario is that the Greek parliament backs the government and a referendum campaign is conducted on ‘staying in the euro’, which is won. The Eurozone and the IMF continue to finance the Greeks over the next two months before the new bailout package takes over. The 50% haircut for the banks on their holdings of Greek debt goes through with over 90% involvement; the banks receive funds to recapitalise; and the EFSF is enhanced with new firepower to inoculate Portugal, Spain and Italy from the Greek nightmare. And the G20 meeting comes through with new measures of funding to help Europe.

The more you think about, the less likely that sounds. More likely, the uncertainty will undermine the efficacy of enhancing the EFSF through adequate funding from a Special Purpose Vehicle. It will increase contagion for Italy and Spain, increasing the cost of ring-fencing. And a disorderly default would trigger losses for the ECB itself on its holdings of Greek debt.

Go short the euro and PIIGS debt — and hold on to your seats!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/independe ... your-seats

Emergency Greek Cabinet Meeting At 4 pm Local - Early Elections, Referendum To Be Discussed

Submitted by Tyler Durden
11/01/2011 09:38 -0400
Comments: 27 / Reads: 3,526

News is now coming fast and furious, with the latest locus of activity once again Greece, where we learn that there will be an emergency meeting in minutes, at 4 pm local. Dow Jones reports that early elections, and the referendum, will be discussed by the Greek cabinet, according to a government official. Supposedly G-Pap is trying to control the revolt in the socialist party. We fail to see how this is remotely good news, as early elections are merely another form of popular referendum which will simply delay the final outcome of the prevailing hatred toward the bailout, only with it it risks esclating the country closer to outright civil conflict.

We will bring more as we see it.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/emergency ... -discussed

Mutiny On The Acropolis

Submitted by Tyler Durden
11/01/2011 09:01 -0400
Comments: 89 / Reads: 7,462

Oh this is getting good.

Greek Health Minister Says Referendum Won’t Happen: Proto Thema
Next up: the army arrives in full party regalia to pay the capital a visit.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/mutiny-acropolis

Another Defection- Greek Ruling Party "Majority" Down To 151

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/01/2011 08:41 -0400
Comments: 32 / Reads: 2,986

Margin of error: zero

Greek Ruling Pasok Party Majority Falls to 151, Kerdos Reports - BBG
Intessa Sanpaolo celebrates by being halted down over 14%..... and Banco Popolare.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/another-d ... y-down-151

Europe On The Verge Of A Political Crisis

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/01/2011 07:52 -0400
Comments: 48 / Reads: 5,328

And the hits just keep on coming, with the Greek government now just one vote away from total collapse

ONE GREEK RULING SOCIALIST LAWMAKER QUITS PARLIAMENTARY GROUP - STATE TV MORE - RTRS

GREEK MP'S MOVE REDUCES PM PAPANDREOU'S MAJORITY TO 152 OUT OF 300 DEPUTIES - RTRS

More resignations/defections from Greek ruling part is possible according to an Official - Dow Jones

As a reminder 151 votes are needed to pass a vote. But that's not all:

Senior member of Italian opposition says party has asked president Giorgio Napolitano to form new government before G20 summit in Cannes

Oh yes, Italy, the one place everyone was terrified about before Greece stormed back to center stage with a bang. Result:

ITALY 2-YR BOND YIELD SPREAD VS GERMANY HITS NEW EURO LIFETIME HIGH ABOVE 500 BPS


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/europe-ve ... cal-crisis