The next major move in the stock market will be DOWN
Last vestiges of a rally similar to what we saw in 1931


by Bob Chapman
Global Research, June 17, 2009





The next major move in the stock market will be down. We are seeing the last vestiges of a rally similar to what we saw in 1931. The rally we expected at 6600 up to 8500 will end as soon as all the financial institutions that need to sell what stock is necessary to bolster their balance sheets. Our guess is the rally has been aided in a big way by short covering and the participation of the US government. Those who believe the SEC has stopped naked short selling are sadly mistaken. Markets weaken during the summer as volume dries up during the vacation season. In addition, second quarter earnings will be very disappointing, especially in the financial segment. Unemployment continues to worsen and capacity utilization is at its lowest level in years. Banks continue to cut credit lines and not lend nearly as much as they did before. Citigroup’s earnings should turn down again. They won’t have another $2.7 billion gain or another $400 million mark-to-market fictitious gain. Absent those gains they would have lost $2.8 billion.

The credit crisis certainly isn’t over after 23 months. The credit markets are still very tight and the residential and commercial real estate markets are still in a state of collapse. In the midst of this ongoing fiasco the Fed is monetizing $2.2 trillion in treasuries, Agencies and CDOs, collateralized debt obligation, otherwise known as toxic junk. Our fiscal deficit for this year ended 9/30/09 will be between $2 and $2.5 trillion, followed by more than $2 trillion in 2010.

Times are tough, everywhere and export nations are determined to keep their products cheaply devaluing their currencies.

When all is said and done the Fed will have to remove hundreds of billions in toxic assets from lender balance sheets, get consumers to spend and allow banks to lend again. Ben Bernanke at the Fed would really like to see a lower dollar, to get consumers to spend. But if that happens interest rates will move higher hurting real estate sales. As Ben dreams, unemployment increases adding more downward pressure on home prices, causing lower prices and reducing equity. Congress is pushing to have returned TARP money back to the Treasury and the PPIP program looks like a nonevent, because it could cause insolvencies. Public funds would be used to protect bondholders of mismanaged companies. Ben and Tiny Tim want to reopen securitization markets that caused the problem in the first place. They have to be insane. They want to bring back leverage that caused this monstrous problem we have.

The TALF, Term Asset-backed Securities Loan Facility, makes non-recourse loans, willing to buy AAA bonds backed by consumer and small-business loans, in a market that is frozen. Then for private investors there is a guarantee because the loan recipients cannot pay the loans back. This would cost taxpayers hundreds of billions more dollars.

The public is de-leveraging, which means less consumption, less profits and more savings. The bear market is far from reversible. The rally is over. Dow 6600 will be retested. The basis and support for growth no longer exists. Credit markets are still semi-frozen and the financial system is no better off now than it was 23 months ago.

The big foreign lenders have brought a new global dynamic into the game. Rising yields are a signal that the unusual dollar rally that should never have been, is over. The safety of the dollar is no longer sacrosanct. In fact, it is being in some quarters perceived that the dollar is no longer safe and it has to vie with gold as the safe haven go to asset. Fiscal deficits are projected this year to be $2 to $2.5 trillion and well over $1 trillion annually for years to come.

Commodity prices have surged over the past several months as the dollar has weakened, which reflects anticipated future inflation as well as rotation. We have seen this reflected in precious metal prices as well. The leeway the Fed experienced some months ago via deleveraging has past making it much more difficult to employ quantitative easing, monetization. The job of pegging long-term as well as short-term interest rates will be difficult and very injurious to the value of the dollar, as more and more money and credit are made up out of thin air. Trillions of dollars of MBS, ABS and CDO being purchased by the Fed incurring long-term losses can’t be tolerated indefinitely.

Sadly as the Fed and the Treasury go so does most of the nations of the world. In that case most all currencies depreciate against gold. Yes, the Fed can drive rates down, but for how long? Especially as the economy fails to perform and taxes rise as do borrowing costs. Import costs are already rising as well. Foreign lenders, with each passing day, become more skeptical of monetization, the damage it will do to the dollar and the Fed’s ultimate ability to retire dollars from the financial system. Dollar selling will feed on itself under those circumstances pushing the dollar lower versus other currencies and gold. It is now only a question of when will the system break? We do not know that, but we do know it will break and the only safe haven to preserve wealth is in gold and silver.

Higher interest rates have to have caused great consternation in the banking community concerning their IRS and CDS swaps. This is an unregulated market so no one except the players know what is going on inside. For a number of years these contracts have caused interest rates to be abnormally low. If these swaps were to blow up interest rates could and probably would move substantially higher.

The big loser in all of this will be the dollar as more and more dollar owners become fearful and sell dollars. If you look at a USDX chart you will see what we mean. A total breakdown as the dollar struggles to begin momentum and break out over 81 again. It is not going to happen. The question is how long will it take to get to 71.18? We can list all the reasons for pressure on the dollar, but you already know them.

The Fed is monetizing about $2.3 trillion in Treasuries, Agencies and CDOs. We said week’s ago that these monetizations would be followed by an additional $2 trillion if not by the end of this year, by March 2010. The Fed has no other choice. This is going to go on indefinitely until the dollar reaches 40 on the USDX and at that point no one will want to buy dollar denominated securities or to even borrow dollars. That is when we’ll have our next Bretton Woods type conference where all currencies will devalue and default and gold and silver will reach great heights. We saw all this coming when we warned you earlier in the year that you had until June to refinance debt. We hope you did so. We are now entering a new stage in real estate. Price pressure is going to press a further downward bias that will last a minimum of 3-1/2 years. How long we will be on the bottom no one knows.

This is why you do not want to own US Treasuries or US corporate or municipal bonds. A better currency is the Canadian dollar if you must have money in Treasuries. All your funds should really be in gold and silver related assets.

Interest rates have now become a dummy’s game driven by derivatives. They are going to explode. It is only a question of when. All the major banks, holding 75% of US deposits are insolvent, and they will collapse when the derivative bomb explodes. In addition there are lots of other losses on the way as well. The ability of the Fed and the Treasury in the misuse of “The Working Group on Financial Marketsâ€