Thread: Ponzi Scheme: Is America a gigantic Ponzi scheme?

Ponzi Scheme

By Puru Saxena
Feb 12 2010 11:20AM
www.purusaxena.com

Let’s face it, the government-bond market in the West is a gigantic Ponzi scheme. Most governments in the ‘developed’ world are drowning in debt, they are running mind-boggling budget deficits and printing money like there is no tomorrow. Furthermore, under the guise of quantitative easing, their central banks are buying their own newly issued debt!

It is our contention that similar to Mr. Madoff’s hedge fund, the sovereign debt markets in the West have now become gigantic scams. Only this time around, the players have changed and the sums involved are significantly larger.

Figure 1 highlights the incredible expansion in America’s national debt. It is noteworthy that at the turn of the millennium, America’s national debt was less than half of its current value. Put simply, American policymakers have taken on more debt over the past decade than they have over the last one hundred years!

What is more astonishing is the fact that America is funding a large portion of its newly issued debt by direct purchases from the Federal Reserve. In other words, as private-sector demand for US Treasuries wanes, Mr. Bernanke is creating new money so that Mr. Obama’s government can bail out insolvent financial institutions. Strangely, the American establishment is quite content to pledge the economic fate of its future generations in order to protect the bondholders of dubious ‘too big to fail’ corporations. Hmm, talk about change…

Figure 1: Is America a gigantic Ponzi scheme?



Source: Treasury Direct

Apart from the world’s largest economy, various other nations in the ‘developed’ world are also following such misguided policies. For instance, UK’s national debt is exploding and is forecast to reach GBP1.1 trillion by 2011. At present, its national debt is worth GBP891 billion and this equates to GBP14,304 for every man, woman and child in the United Kingdom!

Elsewhere in Europe, the situation is equally dire in nations such as Ireland, Spain, Greece and Italy. Furthermore, various countries in Eastern Europe are on the verge of economic doom.

Given the precarious state of so many economies in the West, we are amazed that the respective government bond markets have not fallen apart at the seams. Perhaps, they are all heading down Japan’s route, where national debt is now above 170% of GDP, yet the yield on Japanese government debt is pathetic. But then again, perhaps they are not…

In our view, in the not too distant future, the interest payments on the outstanding national debts in the overstretched ‘developed’ nations will become so large that their central banks will need to create money just to keep the Ponzi schemes going. When that happens, the game will be up and we will probably experience a total breakdown of the fiat-money experiment. At this stage, we do not know when the day of reckoning will arrive but we do know that all Ponzi schemes ultimately collapse under their own weight and this one will be no different.

Given the shocking debt overhang in the West and the threat of surging inflation later this decade, we cannot understand why anybody would want to lend money to bankrupt governments!? In the worst case scenario, these naïve bondholders risk losing their entire capital and the best outcome involves a significant loss of purchasing power due to inflation. Accordingly, we are not investing in sovereign debt and we suggest that you refrain from lending money to dubious governments.

Finally, although we are pessimistic about the long-term prospects of government debt, we are aware of the possibility of a near-term rally; especially if there is another round of risk aversion in the financial markets. So, if we do get another deflationary scare and bond prices rally, holders of government debt are best advised to liquidate their positions.

Furthermore, if our world-view is correct, extremely high inflation is now inevitable. As long as the monetary velocity in the US is weak, inflationary expectations will remain subdued, but once the economic activity picks up, the world will experience spiralling inflation. When that occurs, hard assets will protect the purchasing power of your savings. Accordingly, we have allocated a large portion of our clients’ capital to energy (upstream companies, oil services plays and alternative energy plays), precious metals miners and diversified base metals miners.

At the time of writing, precious metals are at a critical juncture and the price of gold is trading above an important support level.

Figure 2 shows that the price of gold peaked at US$1,075 in October 2009 and that level is now acting as important support. Now, if the bull-market’s trend consistency is intact, then the price of gold must rally immediately and challenge its December high. At the very least, the price of gold must hold above US$1,075 per ounce. So, will gold manage to stay above this critical support level?

Before we attempt to answer this question, we must confess that short-term forecasting is extremely difficult and we really do not know what will happen over the following days. However, what we do know is that the macro-economic environment has never been better for the yellow metal. After all, mined supply is in decline, investment demand is rising, the public sector has become a net buyer of gold and hatred towards paper currencies is on the rise. Under these circumstances, we expect gold to perform very well. However, you must remember that the American currency is in rally mode and this is exerting downward pressure on all metals.

Now, if we were forced to take a stand at gunpoint, we would say that the odds of a rally in gold are 65/35. Accordingly, we are holding on to our positions in precious metals mining stocks and may consider lightening up during spring (which is when precious metals usually make an intermediate-term peak).

Figure 2: Gold at an important juncture



Source: Stockcharts

Now, if gold does the unexpected and breaks below US$1,075 per ounce, then we envisage a deeper correction to the US$1,000 per ounce level. Even if that happens, we will continue to hold on to our positions in gold mining companies, which have already depreciated in the ongoing stock-market correction.

Short-term setbacks notwithstanding, we continue to believe that hard assets are in a secular bull-market, which will probably end in a gigantic mania. According to our guesstimate, the bull-market will end in the latter half of this decade; at a time, when inflationary expectations are spiralling out of control.

Make no mistake, the policy actions of the past 18 months are extremely inflationary and once the American economy stabilises, we will experience a significant increase in the general price level. And before this is all over, government bonds will (once again) be recognised as ‘certificates of confiscation’.

Puru Saxena

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Saxena/feb122010.html

Yes America has become one giant ponzi scheme. Look at one of the core elememnts. Social Security. Irwin Schiff's bokk, The Great Social Security Swindle (How Anyone Can Drop Out). In it he unveils the socialistic, cartel "piramid style" structure it embraces and endorses just by its existance. The trouble is, the same structure has managed to infiltrate many different programs as the Supreme Court has not had the nards to make it unlawful in its application. The same way they shot down FDR's National Industrial Recovery Act (NRA) in the 1935 Scheckter Poultry case. As it created a "cartel" structure for every industry in the nation and was said by the bourt to "unknown to our law".

This ponzi scheme as it has been perpetuated would make even the crime syndicates green with envy, as they are a top down pyramig that no one can escape from because it is run by the government. Yet if John Q. Public sets up the same thing, John Q. Public gets sent to the pokey for quite a long time.

The Federal Reserve is another example. They print money that is about a worthless as Parker Bros. Monopoly Game Money, as it has nothing of value backing it except our labor. There is no commodity to rescue it, i.e.: gold and silver. That would at least be certificate that has something behind it, also called fiduciary money. But nothing can ever replace the real money the Constitution demands in the form of gold and silver coin.

If we want to see an end to this NWO madness, stop these illegal pwergrabbing, wealth stealing programs, and return to the American People their real property, and money and rid us of all these unConstitutional freebees government has deceived the population with.

Yes America has become one giant ponzi scheme.

Can a ponzi scheme continue even after detection by those who participated in the scheme? Or will it collapse upon detection? Will people participate in a scheme after it has been exposed?

Some people in society will go right along with a system despite its negative reprecussions to society as a whole, so long as they feel they can eat at the table of deception, they profit from, in some manner. People turn their head, they choose not to see.

Morals (at the societal level) at this point transform from accepted norm, what was considered just, to a deteriorating, ever so slowly, accepted new set of morals (or some may say lack of), led by their stomachs as opposed to their faith or their ability to reason.

Will you sell your soul for a nickel? Economics will dictate morals (norms, what is accepted) in the absence of a faith based set of morals, not warm and fuzzy feelings. He who has the gold makes the rules, your desires be damned.

If we want to see an end to this NWO madness, stop these illegal pwergrabbing, wealth stealing programs, and return to the American People their real property, and money and rid us of all these unConstitutional freebees government has deceived the population with.

Who's afraid of the big bad wolf?

I want a real dollar. One I can bury in the ground and dig up when I wish and still have something of value. A dollar that a man half way around the world cannot steal the value from while I sleep. A dollar that would truly belong to me after the sweat was invested, my dollar, not the banks dollar, my dollar. My dollar to do with as I wish. And when I get one of your dollars or you get one of mine, we will know the ownership of that dollar. No third party of thieves needed.