Thread: Cloture Vote Guesses - The Hunt For 60

Beginning with Whose votes are likely to switch? found here:
http://hotair.com/archives/2007/06/1...ill-next-week/

Here's the "Cloture Vote Guesses" follow-through from the hotair.com's entry :

Noam Askew

Disclaimer: First of all, don't trust this list; these senators can be very tricky, especially on this issue. These are only guesses and hunches--some more informed than others. Have some news/arguments for me to change the list? Tell me about it! This page may be updated a lot depending on the news...

Also, this list focuses on those who voted against cloture last time and may switch to vote in favor of it next time, the assumption being that senators who voted for it last time will be unlikely to switch. However, if you have any news about pro-cloture senators who have announced that they may switch to vote against it, tell me about it, and I can revise this list....

List of those who voted against cloture last time and how likely they are to switch to vote in favor of cloture next time (assuming there is a next time for this bill)...The bill needs 15 more cloture votes to continue...
6/14 Update: See this post on D Sen.'s and indecision of Chambliss, Isakson, Ensign, and Cornyn.

Switch from pro-cloture to anti-cloture?
Ben Nelson (D-NE) voted for cloture last time but has been pretty skeptical about this bill, and he voted against last year's bill. Even if he ultimately votes against this year's bill, he may still vote for cloture. Last year, he voted against S.2611 but for cloture on it. He says he's still against "amnesty" based on reports I'm getting--but does anyone have any info. about how he'll go for cloture on this bill?


Very Likely to Switch
Kyl (R-AZ)-coalition member
Lott (R-MS)--pushing hard for bill; willing to "reign in" dissenters
McConnell (R-KY)-pushing hard for bill
Craig (R-ID)--has said he will

Likely to Switch
Boxer (D-CA)--voted in favor of bill last year
Collins (R-ME)--voted in favor of bill last year
Snowe (R-ME)--voted in favor of bill last year
Domenici (R-NM)--voted in favor of bill last year
Murkowski (R-AK)--voted in favor of bill last year
Stevens (R-AK)--voted in favor of bill last year


Could very well switch
Smith (R-OR)--voted for bill last year, but could be up for a tough re-election...
Alexander (R-TN)--voted against cloture last time
Gregg (R-NH)--voted in favor of bill last year
Bingaman (D-NM)--voted in favor of bill last year--but has been a little more critical now...
Bennett (R-UT)--voted in favor of bill last year
Hatch (R-UT)--voted in favor of cloture last year
Cochran (R-MS)--voted in favor of cloture last year



Toss-ups
Warner (R-VA)--up for re-election; voted for bill last time, but, w/Webb, he might not switch
Sanders (I-VT)--who knows! He's independent!
Coleman (R-MN)--up for re-election; voted for bill last time, but has been more critical now
Isakson (R-GA)-- the Georgians are tough: both voted against cloture before
Chambliss (R-GA)-- but are more favorable to ultimate bill now....
Pryor (D-AR)--up for re-election; voted in favor of bill last year, but more critical now....


Could Very Well not Switch
Hutchison (R-TX)--voted against cloture last year (but also against bill)
Webb (D-VA)--new but has been somewhat skeptical
Rockefeller (D-WV)--has been a skeptic with Byrd
Tester (D-MT)--seems skeptical....
Baucus (D-MT)--up for re-election; also seems skeptical (even though he voted for bill last time)
Ensign (R-NV)--seemed at one point slightly favorable to bill, but it's hard to say....

Somewhat Unlikely to Switch
Corker (R-TN)--new but still seems skeptical
Cornyn (R-TX)--up for re-election; voted against bill last time
McCaskill (D-MO)--new but still seems skeptical
Landrieu (D-LA)--up for re-election; voted against bill last time


Very Unlikely to Switch
DeMint (R-SC) signed enforcement letter to president
Dorgan (D-ND)--voted against cloture last year; consistent bill skeptic
Bunning (R-KY)----voted against cloture last year; consistent bill skeptic
Burr (R-NC)----voted against cloture last year; consistent bill skeptic
Byrd (D-WV)----voted against cloture last year; consistent bill skeptic
Sessions (R-AL)----voted against cloture last year; consistent bill skeptic
Shelby (R-AL)----voted against cloture last year; consistent bill skeptic
Sununu (R-NH)----voted against cloture last year; consistent bill skeptic
Crapo (R-ID)----voted against cloture last year; consistent bill skeptic
Dole (R-NC)----voted against cloture last year; consistent bill skeptic
Vitter (R-LA)----voted against cloture last year; consistent bill skeptic
Grassley (R-IA)----voted against cloture last year; consistent bill skeptic
Thune (R-SD)----voted against cloture last year; consistent bill skeptic
Allard (R-CO)--voted against cloture last year
Bond (R-MO)--voted against cloture last year
Inhofe (R-OK)--voted against cloture last year
Roberts (R-KS)--voted against cloture last year


Missed Last Cloture
Enzi (R-WY)--often misses votes on clotures for immigration bills--has missed votes for last year's cloture and this year's...
Brownback (R-KS)--sends a lot of mixed signals, but seems--sometimes--in favor of bill...
Coburn (R-OK)--probably against cloture
Johnson (D-SD)--unlikely to vote at all (ill health)


Here's the official Senate vote list on cloture for last week:
YEAs ---45
Akaka (D-HI)
Bayh (D-IN)
Biden (D-DE)
Brown (D-OH)
Cantwell (D-WA)
Cardin (D-MD)
Carper (D-DE)
Casey (D-PA)
Clinton (D-NY)
Conrad (D-ND)
Dodd (D-CT)
Durbin (D-IL)
Feingold (D-WI)
Feinstein (D-CA)
Graham (R-SC)
Hagel (R-NE)
Harkin (D-IA)
Inouye (D-HI)
Kennedy (D-MA)
Kerry (D-MA)
Klobuchar (D-MN)
Kohl (D-WI)
Lautenberg (D-NJ)
Leahy (D-VT)
Levin (D-MI)
Lieberman (ID-CT)
Lincoln (D-AR)
Lugar (R-IN)
Martinez (R-FL)
McCain (R-AZ)
Menendez (D-NJ)
Mikulski (D-MD)
Murray (D-WA)
Nelson (D-FL)
Nelson (D-NE)
Obama (D-IL)
Reed (D-RI)
Reid (D-NV)
Salazar (D-CO)
Schumer (D-NY)
Specter (R-PA)
Stabenow (D-MI)
Voinovich (R-OH)
Whitehouse (D-RI)
Wyden (D-OR)


NAYs ---50
Alexander (R-TN)
Allard (R-CO)
Baucus (D-MT)
Bennett (R-UT)
Bingaman (D-NM)
Bond (R-MO)
Boxer (D-CA)
Bunning (R-KY)
Burr (R-NC)
Byrd (D-WV)
Chambliss (R-GA)
Cochran (R-MS)
Coleman (R-MN)
Collins (R-ME)
Corker (R-TN)
Cornyn (R-TX)
Craig (R-ID)
Crapo (R-ID)
DeMint (R-SC)
Dole (R-NC)
Domenici (R-NM)
Dorgan (D-ND)
Ensign (R-NV)
Grassley (R-IA)
Gregg (R-NH)
Hatch (R-UT)
Hutchison (R-TX)
Inhofe (R-OK)
Isakson (R-GA)
Kyl (R-AZ)
Landrieu (D-LA)
Lott (R-MS)
McCaskill (D-MO)
McConnell (R-KY)
Murkowski (R-AK)
Pryor (D-AR)
Roberts (R-KS)
Rockefeller (D-WV)
Sanders (I-VT)
Sessions (R-AL)
Shelby (R-AL)
Smith (R-OR)
Snowe (R-ME)
Stevens (R-AK)
Sununu (R-NH)
Tester (D-MT)
Thune (R-SD)
Vitter (R-LA)
Warner (R-VA)
Webb (D-VA)

Not Voting - 4
Brownback (R-KS)
Coburn (R-OK)
Enzi (R-WY)
Johnson (D-SD)

Source: http://noamaskew.blogspot.com/2007/06/c ... or-60.html

Very Unlikely to Switch
DeMint (R-SC) signed enforcement letter to president
Dorgan (D-ND)--voted against cloture last year; consistent bill skeptic
Bunning (R-KY)----voted against cloture last year; consistent bill skeptic
Burr (R-NC)----voted against cloture last year; consistent bill skeptic
Byrd (D-WV)----voted against cloture last year; consistent bill skeptic
Sessions (R-AL)----voted against cloture last year; consistent bill skeptic
Shelby (R-AL)----voted against cloture last year; consistent bill skeptic
Sununu (R-NH)----voted against cloture last year; consistent bill skeptic
Crapo (R-ID)----voted against cloture last year; consistent bill skeptic
Dole (R-NC)----voted against cloture last year; consistent bill skeptic
Vitter (R-LA)----voted against cloture last year; consistent bill skeptic
Grassley (R-IA)----voted against cloture last year; consistent bill skeptic
Thune (R-SD)----voted against cloture last year; consistent bill skeptic
Allard (R-CO)--voted against cloture last year
Bond (R-MO)--voted against cloture last year
Inhofe (R-OK)--voted against cloture last year
Roberts (R-KS)--voted against cloture last year

I never realized how important a senator can be. I never paid too much attention when I voted. That was BB. (Before Bush).

Look at Senator Dorgan up there all by himself except for one other Democrat senator. He's a senator that I believe we can depend on. I'm going to send him an email right now, then I'll get to work on the LOL-08.
LOL means LIST of LOSERS in 2008

Please thank Byrd, too, while you're at it. These 2 Dems really are stand-outs and they both deserve the recognition for being stalwart and for supporting the people of our Nation (citizens!).