Thread: Democrats could decide Republican Assembly winner

Democrats could decide Republican Assembly winner

THE ORANGE COUNTY REGISTER
By MARTIN WISCKOL
COLUMNIST
ublished: Nov. 17, 2011
Updated: Nov. 18, 2011 11:37 a.m.


Thanks to the open primary, the winner could be a Republican who reaches out to Democrats.

The 74th Assembly District race is quickly shaping up to be a lot more dramatic than it appeared at first glance, with three established Republicans now angling for advantage - and with non-Republican voters holding the power to decide which GOP candidate will prevail.

Assemblyman Allan Mansoor, R-Costa Mesa, looks like he has the incumbent's edge ... until you notice that only 20 percent of his old district is in the newly drawn 74th Assembly District. He still has considerable name recognition, thanks in good measure to his ardent anti-illegal immigration activism dating back to his time as a Costa Mesa councilman, and he will also have the possible benefit of having "Assemblyman" as his job designation on the ballot.

But immigration isn't the top issue these days, incumbency doesn't add the sparkle it had in better times, and the addition of Newport Beach and Irvine to the turf Mansoor is vying for adds a new demographic element to what had been a more blue-collar constituency.

Enter Newport Beach Councilwoman Leslie Daigle, a governmental relations specialist in her current day job. Daigle's name didn't much surface as a possible candidate until after the new district lines were finalized, but the Republican studied those boundaries and is now all-in, raising money and actively networking - including with all members of the Democratic-majority Irvine City Council.

Every candidate's expertise this election is, of course, economics and job creation, but Daigle has also made her mark for her environmental activism along the coast and with the Newport Back Bay. While Mansoor's social conservatism may play well in the Costa Mesa portion of the district (60,000 voters) and the Huntington Beach portion (70,000), Daigle has the opportunity to appeal to the more socially moderate profile of the Newport Beach (65,000), Irvine (80,000) and Laguna Beach (19,000) portions.

No Democratic candidate?



But wait - there's more. Longtime Republican activist and former vice chairman of the California Republican Party Keith Carlson, a Huntington Beach resident, declared his candidacy before the new lines were drawn and hasn't flinched when it turned out he'd be running against incumbent Mansoor.

Carlson touts himself as the non-politician at a time when politicians have screwed everything up. He'll have to sell that well to voters if he's to compensate for his lack of name recognition and lack of experience in elected office. And while he'd welcome votes from non-Republicans, he doesn't sound much more likely than Mansoor to bend his policy to appeal to Democrats.

"We need to convince non-Republicans that things in the state have to change," he told me.

No Democrats have been seriously rumored to be running. That's probably because Republicans account for 43 percent of the district's voters, and Democrats account for 29 percent.

"We probably don't have a lot of people who want to run a death race like I ran," said Democratic activist Steve Young from Irvine, who has run unsuccessfully for Congress and, in 2010, Assembly.

Moderates may be key



With the new top-two open primary, voters can cast ballots across party lines. If there are no Democrats running a serious campaign, voters could send two Republicans to the general election. Democrats and independent voters could not only help decide who goes to the general election, but who wins in November.

In 2000, when there was a different, short-lived form of the open primary, Republicans Tom Harman and Lynn Daucher won their respective GOP Assembly primaries despite not winning the majority of GOP votes. That was thanks to successful campaigning among Democrats and independents who didn't want to waste votes on a Democratic candidate who didn't have a chance in the general election, largely because of Republicans heavy advantage in voter registration.

Will Daigle be the one to best court Democrats and independents, while maintaining a platform of fiscal conservatism? That could not only get her into the general election but could also carry her to victory. How much to court non-Republicans also creates a dilemma for Mansoor and Carlson, who have reputations as being loyal conservative Republicans.

I look forward to seeing if all three sign the no-new-taxes pledge.

While Republicans have a clear advantage in voter registration, independents and swing-voting Republicans make it a moderate district. Proof? Barack Obama won among those voters in 2008, edging out John McCain 49 percent to 47 percent.

The contest is likely to unfold as slowly as a chess match, but it should be a good one.

Contact the writer: 714-796-6753 or mwisckol@ocregister.com

http://www.ocregister.com/articles/repu ... oters.html

Great, just what America needs... Another politician that acts like a blend of Dems and Reps... another RINO Republicrat or Demorepublican.

I think it is pretty clear already that we have a one party system masquerading as a two party system.

W

Originally Posted by ALIPAC

Great, just what America needs... Another politician that acts like a blend of Dems and Reps... another RINO Republicrat or Demorepublican.

I think it is pretty clear already that we have a one party system masquerading as a two party system.

W

No doubt. So what do we do about it? That is where so many good peoples frustrations just percolate. Work your fingers to the bone what do you get? "BONY FINGERS!" And same as it ever sucked..RINOS!, traiters, and morally, criminally corrupt buffoons.
The People Giveth, Our Politicians Steal It! From one dirt bag hand to another!