Real Clear Politics
Immigration Bill Puts Focus on Red-State Democrats

By Caitlin Huey-Burns - June 5, 2013

Senate immigration reform architects expect to spend June cultivating support for the bill that's due to hit the floor next week. Most of the "informing, begging and listening," as Sen. Lindsey Graham put it, will be aimed at the Republican side, but some Democrats from conservative states need convincing too.


In particular, a handful of red-state Democrats up for re-election next year face difficult votes on this and other items on President Obama’s agenda, which have pinched them between the interests of state and party.


But unlike recent -- and controversial -- votes on gun legislation and the budget, immigration reform is an issue that many of these lawmakers are apparently looking for ways to say yes to.


There are still a few weeks of debate ahead before the bill -- which now includes a 13-year pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants, mandatory border security and workplace enforcements, and new guest-worker provisions -- is ready for a vote. As a result, most senators are just starting to dig into its 800-odd pages and are reluctant to commit their support.


Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid believes the measure will eventually draw the 60 “yes” votes needed for passage, and he told reporters Tuesday that "90 percent or more of Democrats are going to vote to move forward on immigration. We want this bill passed."


Supporters hope to garner more than the required number in order to pressure action in the House, where prospects are dimmer and where lawmakers want a bill (or bills) of their own. Chuck Schumer, a co-author of the Senate legislation, predicted Tuesday that an “overwhelming majority” of Democrats would vote in favor, though a tally has not yet been taken.


Florida Republican Sen. Marco Rubio, another co-sponsor and considered a linchpin for the bill’s chances of success, raised eyebrows Tuesday when he said there were not 60 votes to pass it because of “how little confidence people have that the federal government will enforce the law”; he said changes had to be made to enhance the border security provisions and triggers for citizenship.


South Carolina’s Graham said he hopes to gain support from roughly half of the 45-member Republican conference. He said the sponsors are open to changes in order to win more support, so long as the proposal’s triggers are still achievable.


“I don’t want a bad bill; I want a good bill to not have a third wave [of illegal immigration]. But the politics of this is pretty clear: The party that is seen as stopping immigration reform is going to pay a heavy price,” he told reporters. “If we’re not able to pass immigration reform in 2013 and it’s the Republican Party’s fault, we’re dead in 2016.”


Eventual backing from a significant amount of Republicans, who are facing pressure after election losses among the Latino electorate last fall, would provide cover for red-state Democrats. But lackluster support among Republicans could spook those same lawmakers.


Some red-state Democrats interviewed by RCP mentioned the importance of tough border security provisions in describing their thoughts on the bill. They are also assessing regional and economic supporting arguments.


“Most Americans, particularly moderates, think immigrants are good people, but also worry that they are a drain on government resources. Moderate Democrats need to emphasize that the Senate bill is fair to taxpayers,” said Lanae Erickson Hatalsky, director of social policy and politics for the center-left organization Third Way. “That includes reminding folks that immigrants earning legalization must pay their own way and won’t be eligible for health care subsidies, Medicare, or Medicaid during that transition.”


For these Democrats, the strategy to win re-election and to legislate depends on considering the nuances of their states first and their party affiliation second.


“The politics of immigration can often be more regionally based than party-driven,” Erickson Hatalsky said. “Southwestern Republicans -- like [John] McCain and [Jeff] Flake -- have been much more amenable than some Deep South or rural Democrats.”


Arkansas Sen. Mark Pryor (pictured) might be one of the tougher gets. He was one of five Democrats to vote with Republicans against the 2010 DREAM Act that would have created a citizenship path for the children of illegal immigrants, provided they attended college or served in the military. North Carolina’s Kay Hagan, and Montana’s Max Baucus and Jon Tester also voted against the bill, which some observers view as a litmus test on the issue. Pryor, Baucus, Tester and Louisiana’s Mary Landrieu also voted against the 2007 comprehensive reform bill that failed by seven votes.


Pryor was one of only four Democrats to oppose the bipartisan bill on gun-buyer background checks, which didn’t garner enough votes in April, and he is considered among the more vulnerable Democratic incumbents this election cycle. Pryor told RCP that he wants to support reform legislation but still needs to read through the bill. Constituent reaction “hasn’t really revved up yet,” he said.


Republicans in his state will be looking at the amendments proposed for the legislation. “How many of these poison-pill type of amendments we see put forward and how he votes on those will be pretty important,” an Arkansas GOP strategist told RCP.


Pryor and his Republican colleague, John Boozman, have been focused this week on a farm bill currently being debated on the floor and that is of great import to their agricultural state. Boozman also told RCP he wants to support immigration reform but is still looking through the bill.


Given their state’s farming industry, the two senators will heavily weigh the measure’s agriculture guest-worker provisions and consider concerns from the agriculture community about maintaining a reliable workforce. “Everyone agrees that the farm community needs to be taken care of. … But do you do it with a path to citizenship or a path to benefits, or do you do it with a stronger visa system?” Boozman asked.


Landrieu, also up for re-election next year, told RCP she is leaning in favor of the Senate bill and is working on “several friendly amendments” to improve it. The chairwoman of the Small Business subcommittee said she is interested in opportunities to hire high-skilled workers. She is looking to create an “express lane” for small businesses to ensure a fair share of high-tech worker visas, and to find ways to help small businesses implement the E-Verify background check system, which the bill mandates.


Landrieu said continued efforts are needed to secure the border, but noted that “we’ve spent billions of dollars . . . to secure the border and it’s much more secure today than it’s ever been in the history of our country.”


Alaska Sen. Mark Begich, another red-state Democrat, told RCP his initial concerns about border security and requiring illegal immigrants to pay back taxes and fines have been addressed in the bill, so he’s now focused on “some Alaska nuances,” such as ensuring that the fishing industry in his state has the right workforce available. He also noted that he wants to make sure there is a “true [citizenship] pathway at the end of the day, so it’s not that no one ever becomes a citizen.” Begich said that Numbers USA, an immigration reduction group, is running ads in his state calling the bill an amnesty measure that will threaten the Social Security system. “It’s a bunch of bull,” he said. “Alaskans know it and see it as outsiders trying to tell us what to do.”


North Carolina’s Kay Hagan is undecided about the bill, but told RCP that border security “is very, very important and I’m being briefed on all of the issues” addressed in the 800-page bill. Because her state’s research triangle brings attracts highly skilled immigrants to study and work there, and its farm communities attract seasonal and agricultural workers, Hagan will likely consider the different visa provisions in the measure.


Other Democrats from conservative states who aren’t running in 2014 are also important to watch. Baucus and Tester did not back the 2007 legislation because they didn’t think it was tough enough on illegal immigration. “I cannot support a bill that provides amnesty for illegal immigrants,” Baucus said at the time.


The six-term senator will retire in 2014, but Democrats studying the bill aren’t sure whether that will affect his vote. In April, for example, he voted against the background check bill, saying it wasn’t in his constituents’ interest. On Monday he expressed interest in the immigration proposal. “I’m hopeful to find a way to address reform,” he told RCP. “It’s a responsible thing to do because if you can’t [achieve it] now … this can can’t be kicked down the road.”


West Virginia Democrat Joe Manchin is undecided about the measure and “waiting to be persuaded,” but is focused on border security. He told RCP that it’s hard for people in his state to believe that the borders will be secured until they see that lawmakers can “really correct the immigration challenges we’ve had.” He added: “People understand we have a problem, [so] find the best way to fix the problem, stop the wave, have a pathway.” West Virginia also has a small illegal immigrant population, according to census data, and doesn’t experience the same kind of vexing issues as other red states.


Manchin and GOP Pennsylvania Sen. Pat Toomey took a political risk by introducing the gun sales background-check measure, and some observers have wondered whether they are now reluctant to support another complicated and contentious bill. But Manchin dismissed that concern, saying, “I take every piece of legislation on its own merits. … If you can’t go home and explain it, you shouldn’t vote for it.” Manchin plans to offer two amendments: one adjusting the DREAM Act provision requiring either a two- or four-year college degree or four years of military service, and another that would require the Department of Homeland Security inspector general to evaluate current drone use at the borders before the authorization of additional drones.


Indiana Sen. Joe Donnelly, a freshman, is noncommittal. “We’re just looking at it. I want to see the whole package,” the Democrat told RCP. (His predecessor, Dick Lugar, voted for the 2007 bill and for the DREAM Act.) North Dakota Sen. Heidi Heitkamp, another freshman, is leaning toward supporting the bill, but is concerned about security along the nation’s northern border. Her state’s energy boom has attracted many outsiders, and she might consider worker programs and labor issues.


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