Thread: Iowa Poll shows GOP race wide-open

Iowa Poll shows GOP race wide-open

Des Moines Register Kathie Obradovich breaks down the most recent Iowa Poll.

Jennifer Jacobs, The Des Moines Register9:07 p.m. EDT June 7, 2014

(Photo: Mark, Marturello, The Des Moines Register)

DES MOINES, Iowa -- Chris Christie and Jeb Bush have the highest unfavorable ratings of 11 potential White House candidates, yet Iowa's Republican primary voters think they would have the best chance of being elected over the Democratic candidate in November 2016.

Paul Ryan, a fiscal hawk considered another establishment guy, earns the highest favorability rating in the poll. But voters don't think he or Mike Huckabee, Rick Perry and Rand Paul are as electable as the two East Coast governors, The Des Moines Register's latest Iowa Poll shows.

The other take-away: The GOP presidential race in Iowa is wide open. Forty percent or more of Republicans who planned to vote in last week's primary have a positive view of eight of the 11 potential candidates mentioned.

"That says, 'You all come,'" said J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., which conducts the Iowa Poll for the Register. "'Don't think you can't play in Iowa, because we'll talk to all of you.'"

The May 27-30 survey of 400 likely primarygoers has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

The views of poll respondent Michael Johnson, a 29-year-old farmer from Essex, reflect the internal tug of war that Iowa Republicans feel over the candidate they like best versus who they believe is most electable.

Johnson has a mostly unfavorable view of Christie, yet named him as one of the people he thinks has the best chance of victory over the Democratic nominee.

"I really like Huckabee," Johnson said. "But I think that he is, in some ways, too firm in his beliefs — which are my beliefs — to be able to be elected as a president. … Christie, I'm not really familiar with him other than what I've read, but he seems more appealing to a wider variety of people."

Nearly a quarter or more of Republicans who planned to vote in the primary say they aren't sure how they feel yet about six of the potential candidates tested, noted Republican political analyst Kristen Soltis Anderson. It's a year and seven months from decision time, when Republicans in Iowa, the first-in-the-nation caucus state, will start winnowing the presidential candidates.

Even among the best-known names, including Bush, Ryan and Huckabee, only about a third of voters have a strong opinion, rating them as "very favorable" or "very unfavorable," she noted.

"Voters are hoping someone can offer both electability and principled ideas on policy, and they are waiting to see who out of the large crop of contenders can best deliver on that promise," Anderson said.

When it comes to perceived general election punch, Christie, governor of New Jersey, leads the pack, the poll shows. Nineteen percent of Iowa Republicans who planned to vote in last week's primary think Christie has the best chance of beating the next Democratic presidential candidate.

Sixteen percent think Bush, a former Florida governor, would have the best shot.

Huckabee, a former Arkansas governor, and Paul, a U.S. senator from Kentucky, are the next strongest. Each gets 13 percent.

Tied in fifth place for general-election strength, at 10 percent each, are Ryan, a Wisconsin congressman and the 2012 vice presidential nominee, and Perry, governor of Texas.

But rated by favorability, there's a shift.

Wisconsin's Ryan is at the top of the list: 56 percent of Republicans who planned to vote in the primary have a positive view of him.

After that, it's Huckabee in second place (50 percent), Perry in third (49 percent) and Paul in fourth (46 percent).

The two establishment guys come in fifth (Bush is at 44 percent favorability) and seventh (Christie is at 42 percent). Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida slides in between them for sixth, with 43 percent.

Name identification is part of what's allowing Ryan, Huckabee and Perry to top the favorability list, Anderson said. They've all run in Iowa before, so comfort and familiarity are playing a role, she said.

But Rick Santorum, the former Pennsylvania senator who squeaked out a 2012 Iowa caucuses win after visiting every county, has among the lowest ratings — for both favorability and electability — of the 11 names tested.

That's striking, Anderson said.

"Running as strictly principled but ultimately doomed to fail electorally, as in Santorum's 2012 bid, has not made him a favorite looking to 2016," she said.

Another surprising finding is Perry's relatively high favorability rating, at 49 percent, which suggests he has rehabilitated himself to a certain extent since his 2012 presidential bid flopped.

Des Moines resident Wanda Pennybaker, who considers herself extremely conservative, said if Perry runs, he's got her vote. She understands that people make mistakes, like when Perry froze during a nationally televised debate and couldn't remember the names of all three government agencies he had vowed to eliminate.

"It's not really so much what he says," said Pennybaker, 54, who is currently unemployed. "I do believe he's willing to go through with whatever he promises."

Meanwhile, from 36 percent to 46 percent of primary voters still haven't formed an opinion about Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal.

"That makes sense since they haven't crisscrossed the state like some of the folks who were on the ballot on 2012," Anderson said.

Veteran conservative operative David Bossie predicted that 2016 will be similar to 2000, with "massive Obama fatigue just like there was Clinton fatigue."

"Republican caucusgoers will have to deal with the narrative of making sure they pick a perceived 'winner.' That will be the fight," Bossie said.

"Will they vote their principles or for someone the establishment says can win the general? And is there a candidate out there who represents both?"

(3 charts at link.)

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/p...open/10182163/

RELATED

Cruz Crushes Perry/Bush in Texas GOP Straw Poll

Here is a complete breakdown of the straw poll results:
Texas Senator Ted Cruz: 43.3 percent
Dr. Ben Carson: 12.2 percent
Kentucky Senator Rand Paul: 12.1 percent
Texas Governor Rick Perry: 11.7 percent
Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush: 3.3 percent
Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker: 2.9 percent
Florida Senator Marco Rubio: 2.6 percent
Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan: 2 percent
Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum: 1.9 percent
Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal: 1.7 percent
New Jersey Governor Chris Christie: 1.3 percent
Indiana Governor Mike Pence: 0.6 percent
Ohio Governor John Kasich: 0.5 percent
Iowa Congressman Steve King: 0.2 percent
Other: 2.7 percent
Undecided: 1.1 percent

Certainly none in that group that gets my support!

Originally Posted by kevinssdad

Certainly none in that group that gets my support!

If you don't mind me asking, exactly who could you support? I know Iowa's Steve King will never get any traction, but he is certainly someone I could support, especially since illegal immigration is my top issue. There are possibly 2-3 more on the list I may be able to support. There have been so many flip-floppers lately, it's hard to say this early. Steve King reminds me of former Rep. Tom Tancredo who never really got any traction. Just like Tancredo, King has never moved from his current position to my knowledge.

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And not this fool either!!!!!!

Originally Posted by MW

If you don't mind me asking, exactly who could you support? I know Iowa's Steve King will never get any traction, but he is certainly someone I could support, especially since illegal immigration is my top issue. There are possibly 2-3 more on the list I may be able to support. There have been so many flip-floppers lately, it's hard to say this early. Steve King reminds me of former Rep. Tom Tancredo who never really got any traction. Just like Tancredo, King has never moved from his current position to my knowledge.

What about Trey Gowdy, Steve King, Ron Paul! I like Cruz but his Father is not American born he is from Cuba. His Mother was working in Canada also at the time of his birth so he has dual citizenship on that count. He is not born of two American born citizens of America.