Thread: Iowa poll: Trump leads Cruz by 7

Iowa poll: Trump leads Cruz by 7

By POLITICO Staff

02/01/16 08:07 AM EST

Donald Trump leads his nearest rival, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, by 7 percentage points — 31 percent to 24 percent — heading into today's caucuses, the final Quinnipiac University poll of Iowa finds.

Trump's edge, powered as it is by a big lead among what Quinnipiac has identified as likely first-time caucus-goers, could be more tenuous than it looks. The race is still fluid: Although 3 percent said they were undecided, 28 percent of those who did name a candidate said they were open to changing their minds.

Florida Sen. Marco Rubio trails both men with 17 percent, with retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson in fourth place at 8 percent. The other GOP candidates are all at or below 4 percent.

The poll shows Trump pulling away from Cruz and Rubio catching up — Quinnipiac's Jan. 26 survey had Trump at 31 percent, Cruz at 29 percent and Rubio at 13 percent.

The Quinnipiac Iowa poll was conducted on Jan. 25 - 31 and, for its GOP sample, surveyed 890 likely Republican caucus participants, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/0...leading-218518

And it's a big poll with 890 participants. HUGE!!

Anyone still laughing now?!!

Originally Posted by Judy

And it's a big poll with 890 participants. HUGE!!

Anyone still laughing now?!!

Yep, still laughing. Not huge at all. I can throw a pail of water off the Empire State Building and hit 890 folks. Effective 01/2016 there were over 2 million registered voters in Iowa.

Today we'll get to see how accurate all these polls are.

You want to see something that should give us real concerns? Just check this poll out:

Opinion Savvy Poll: Trump, Cruz, Rubio in Iowa Dead Heat


By Greg Richter | Sunday, 31 Jan 2016 10:01 PM

Donald Trump, Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio are in a statistical dead heat in the latest poll of likely Republican caucus-goers by Opinion Savvy, which shows less than 2 points separating first from third — well within the margin of error.

Here's how the candidates line up in the poll:

• Donald Trump: 20.1 percent
• Ted Cruz: 19.4
• Marco Rubio: 18.6
• Ben Carson: 9.0
• Rand Paul: 8.6
• Jeb Bush: 4.9
• Mike Huckabee: 4.4
• John Kasich: 4.0
• Carly Fiorina: 3.8
• Chris Christie: 3.0
• Rick Santorum: 2.1
• Undecided: 2.2

The pollsters said the results show Trump has lost his edge, and that Cruz suffered from a "voter scorecard debacle" in which his campaign sent out official-looking flyers that graded voters on their past caucus participation.

A high expected evangelical turnout also is seen as a key factor as is Trump's skipping Thursday's debate.

​"Among those who watched the Republican debate, voters prefer Cruz and Rubio to Trump by a margin of 10 points," the pollsters said. "As the results came in, there was a marked shift in support for Rubio on Saturday night, likely as a result of Cruz’s mailer mishap."

The poll was conducted January 29-30 and talked to 887 registered Republican voters who said they were likely to attend caucuses on Monday night. It has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.2 percent.

Read Latest Breaking News from Newsmax.com http://www.newsmax.com/Headline/trum...#ixzz3yvnPs09h


I'm fine with where Trump and Cruz stand. It's Rubio that concerns me. How did this amnesty loving nut job sneak up in a dead heat with Cruz and Trump?

Well, lets see that was Fri and Sat following the GOP Debate. So Rubio did well at the Debate, Ted didn't do well, Trump boycotted, so it makes sense to me that Rubio would rise up. Trump is the mean hard-liner on immigration, Ted is the flake, and Rubio is the honest compassionate "conservative". There are a lot of conservative religious Republicans in Iowa who support Rubio's position.

I think Trump is going to win significantly because of his Trump Supporters who include first time Caucus goers, Independents and Democrat cross-overs, who weren't polled by Opinion Savvy.

Originally Posted by Judy

Well, lets see that was Fri and Sat following the GOP Debate. So Rubio did well at the Debate, Ted didn't do well, Trump boycotted, so it makes sense to me that Rubio would rise up. Trump is the mean hard-liner on immigration, Ted is the flake, and Rubio is the honest compassionate "conservative". There are a lot of conservative religious Republicans in Iowa who support Rubio's position.

I think Trump is going to win significantly because of his Trump Supporters who include first time Caucus goers, Independents and Democrat cross-overs, who weren't polled by Opinion Savvy.

Why do you, knowing full well Cruz has supporters on here, constantly feel it is necessary to attach negative names to Cruz? Furthermore, if you consider the big picture, I don't see Trump as any stronger against illegal immigration than Cruz.

Oh that's simple, because I want illegal aliens deported en masse on the earliest possible date in accordance with our laws. Cruz thinks my view is turning US into a "police state". I took that personally. It's the same as calling me and every other American who wants these illegal aliens out of here a Nazi. He even referred to "jack boots", which of course our police don't wear, the Nazis wore those. Calling him a wacko-bird and a flake is being kind, in my view.

And poor Steve King, man oh man, has he stepped into hit. Unbelievable.