Thread: National poll: Clinton, Trump in dead heat

National poll: Clinton, Trump in dead heat

By NICK GASS 06/29/16 06:06 AM EDT

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are running neck and neck in a national Quinnipiac University poll of registered voters released Wednesday, as majorities of Americans agree that neither candidate will be a good president and levels of hatred and prejudice have increased as a result of the presidential election.

While Clinton leads Trump 42 percent to 40 percent, her advantage is half of what it was in a Quinnipiac poll conducted at the end of May that found her with a 4-point lead of 45 percent to 41 percent. The latest survey comes on the heels of two national polls, one an NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey that showed Clinton with a 5-point lead of 46 percent to 41 percent, and another, an ABC News/Washington post poll that showed the former secretary of state leading by 12 points, 51 percent to 39 percent. Trump denounced that poll as "dirty," and his campaign has been quick to note that the poll featured a 10-point gap between Democratic and Republican registered voters surveyed.

In Quinnipiac's latest survey, Democratic voters represented 31 percent of the results, while Republicans account for 28 percent. Quinnipiac conducted the poll from June 21 until Monday via landlines and cellphones, surveying 1,610 registered voters nationwide with an overall margin of error of plus or minus 2.4 percentage points.

The results reflect the usual deep divisions along partisan, ideological, age and gender lines that have defined the election cycle to this point. While Trump led among men, 47 percent to 34 percent, Clinton's advantage among women was even stronger, at 50 percent to 33 percent.

Among white men, Trump holds a healthy advantage of 56 percent to 25 percent, but among white women, Clinton leads 42 percent to 39 percent. Clinton earned the support of 91 percent of black voters participating in the survey, while Trump took just 1 percent. Among Hispanic voters, Clinton prevails over Trump 50 percent to 33 percent.

Clinton leads among those holding a college degree, 47 percent to 37 percent, while Trump leads among those who do not, 43 percent to 37 percent. While the former secretary of state holds double-digit advantages among registered voters between the ages of 18 to 34 (48 percent to 23 percent) and 35 to 49 (47 percent to 37 percent), Trump is out in front with voters between the ages of 50 and 64 (45 percent to 39 percent) and those older than 65 (51 percent to 35 percent).

In a four-way race including Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, Clinton's 2-point edge is unchanged, at 39 percent to 37 percent for Trump. Johnson, the former governor of New
Mexico, drew 8 percent, while 4 percent said they would vote for Stein if given that option on their respective state's ballot.

As far as whether Clinton would be a good president, 53 percent said they did not think she would, compared with 43 percent who said she would, largely divided down the same partisan and demographic lines. In terms of Trump, 58 percent said he would not make a good commander in chief, while 35 percent said he would. Among Republicans, 77 percent said Trump would do a good job, while 17 percent said they did not think he would. Asked the same of Clinton, 87 percent of Democrats said she would be a good president, while 9 percent disagreed.

Asked to best describe how they felt about voting for Trump or Clinton, 48 percent of registered voters said they would "never" vote for the presumptive Republican nominee, 10 percent said they would "probably not," while 18 percent said they probably would and 23 percent said they "definitely" would cast their ballot for Trump. Nearly half of independents surveyed, 47 percent, said they would "never" vote for Trump, while 56 percent of women said the same.

On the same question for Clinton, a similar share of 45 percent said they would "never" vote for the presumptive Democratic nominee, with 10 percent saying "probably not," 19 percent saying they probably would and 25 percent said they are "definitely" voting for her. The share of independents who said they would "never" vote for Clinton is slightly higher than for Trump, at 49 percent, while 53 percent of men said they would never vote for her.

Both major candidates remain deeply unpopular, with Trump's favorability rating at 34 percent to 57 percent, compared with 37 percent to 57 percent for Clinton. Most registered voters said they had not heard enough about Johnson or Stein to have an opinion about them.

But regardless of race, gender, education level, partisan affiliation or age, majorities of registered voters said the presidential election has increased the level of hatred and prejudice in the United States.

More than 6 in 10, 61 percent overall, said the race has only ratcheted up hatred and prejudice, while 34 percent said it has had no impact. Only 1 percent, well within the margin of error, said the election has cooled tensions.

In terms of who is to blame, 67 percent of those who said hatred and prejudice had increased pointed their fingers in the direction of the Trump campaign, while 16 percent put the responsibility on Clinton's effort. Once again, majorities of registered voters in most, but not all, of the demographic and ideological groups agreed on that, to varying degrees. The only group that did not: Republican voters, 42 percent of which put the blame on Clinton, 25 percent of which blamed Trump, 17 percent of which blamed both and 13 percent of which blamed neither.

National poll: Clinton, Trump in dead heat - POLITICO

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