Thread: New Hampshire Predictions: Obama Blowout; Romney Rallying

New Hampshire Predictions: Obama Blowout; Romney Rallying
by Robert Novak and Timothy P. Carney
Posted 01/07/2008 ET
Updated 01/07/2008 ET


New Hampshire Predictions:
Obama Blowout; Romney Rallying

McCain had seemed a clear winner over Romney in New Hampshire with two days left before the Republican voting, but Romney is coming back fast.

Obama looks like a winner over Clinton in Tuesday's New Hampshire primary, which will be damaging but not fatal to her Democratic presidential candidacy.

Here is our New Hampshire outlook based on a personal reporting trip by Robert Novak:

Republican

Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) had pulled even with front-running former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney prior to the Iowa caucuses and pulled ahead based on Romney's disappointing second-place finish in Iowa.


After Saturday night's ABC debate, Romney, from neighboring Massachusetts, seemed to be in freefall. The other candidates personally dislike him, and they ganged up on him. The only problem for McCain appeared to be that he overplayed his hand in going after Romney with too much vehemence and personal animosity.


But Romney made a remarkable comeback in Sunday night's Fox News debate, dominating his opponents. He capitalized on McCain's weaknesses on tax and immigration policy. We attended a focus group of mainly undecided Republican voters arranged for Fox by pollster Frank Luntz. They entered the room before the debate widely divided and left it after the debate heavily for Romney -- because of the immigration issue.


Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee never was expected to repeat his Iowa win in the less fertile soil of New Hampshire, but his performance in the Fox debate was truly dreadful. The Luntz focus group hated Huckabee's refusal to answer questions about his record.


Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani was not long ago battling Romney for the New Hampshire lead, but he abandoned the state a few weeks back as part of his "big-state" strategy and over the past weekend did little there except participate in the debates. Like McCain, he suffers because of the immigration issue.


If McCain does win in New Hampshire, he will be the new national frontrunner. Romney may be finished, with Giuliani given the best chance of overcoming McCain.
Our shaky New Hampshire projection on election eve:

1st Place: McCain, but vulnerable.
2nd Place: Romney, but rallying.
3rd Place: Huckabee.
4th Place: Giuliani.
5th Place: Former Sen. Fred Thompson (Tenn.).


Democratic

The third-place finish in Iowa by Sen. Hillary Clinton (N.Y.) had a negative impact in New Hampshire, where she had been slipping against Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) even before her loss in Iowa. It is beginning to look like a double-digit loss for Clinton.


She was supposed to come out swinging against Obama in New Hampshire, but her boring, pedantic campaign style had not really changed from Iowa. At one rally where we were present, Clinton never mentioned Obama by name and criticized him only once (on healthcare) as "one of my opponents." Former President Bill Clinton, campaigning separately, is sprightlier but no more effective.


In contrast, "Obamamania" reigns supreme -- generating enthusiasm not seen since the 1968 campaign of Robert F. Kennedy. He attracts new voters and generates support across ideological and party lines. In truth, he worries Republicans sick, but for now, he threatens the long, slowly built Clinton campaign.


Former Sen. John Edwards (N.C.), who dwells on finishing ahead of Clinton in Iowa, looks like the odd man out in New Hampshire, with very little interest in him.


Clinton will not drop out after New Hampshire, as has been reported, and she can still stop Obama in the big states. But it will not be easy or automatic.
Our election eve projection for New Hampshire:

1st Place: Obama, going away.
2nd Place: Clinton.
3rd Place: Edwards.
4th Place: New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson.

http://www.humanevents.com/article.php? ... s&id=24330

Fox is just saying........Even if McCain wins, there will NOT be a frontrunner after tomorrow night-----bieng that Romney nailed both McCain and Huckabee during the debates.

McAmnesty is banking on Independents to give him the win----but he may end up being a disappointed loser-----as a lot of Independents are going to support Obama!!

I as a lifelong conservative can never support McCain after his wallowing
with Teddy boy and their Shamnesty Bill!!!! I may for the first time ever,
stay home. You can only hold your nose just so tight.

Originally Posted by Catslave

I as a lifelong conservative can never support McCain after his wallowing
with Teddy boy and their Shamnesty Bill!!!! I may for the first time ever,
stay home. You can only hold your nose just so tight.

Tom Tancredo said on national television yesterday on Fox-----that he will NOT vote for McCain if he is the nominee!!

I agree with Tom!!!

Independents..I wonder about how strict the voting rules are in this primary..how many illegals are voting
I wondered about Iowa also..It is constant headache in the West
I hope the Court rules on that soon ..but no telling how the Court will rule..

If McCain does win in New Hampshire, he will be the new national frontrunner. Romney may be finished, with Giuliani given the best chance of overcoming McCain.
Our shaky New Hampshire projection on election eve:

1st Place: McCain, but vulnerable.
2nd Place: Romney, but rallying.
3rd Place: Huckabee.
4th Place: Giuliani.
5th Place: Former Sen. Fred Thompson (Tenn.).

The news media strikes again! Seems there are a couple candidates missing from the list. Would it have consumed so much space to list 6th and 7th place? Oops, I forgot, those names are taboo.

If Mc Lame or Julie-Annie ends up being the candidate, I will not vote for the GOP. I will call the Republican National Committee office on election day and tell them that they lost my vote when they chosed an open border candidate.

Let them learn their lessons. Pick a non-conservative candidate and you will lose elections.

Originally Posted by LawEnforcer

If Mc Lame or Julie-Annie ends up being the candidate, I will not vote for the GOP. I will call the Republican National Committee office on election day and tell them that they lost my vote when they chosed an open border candidate.

Let them learn their lessons. Pick a non-conservative candidate and you will lose elections.

I agree.......But, I am also not voting if Huckabee becomes the nominee!!