Thread: Once again, N.H. to test McCain

Once again, N.H. to test McCain
Senator faces familiar challenge in must-win contest against better-funded opponent
Dan Nowicki
The Arizona Republic


HOLLIS, N.H. - Don't call Sen. John McCain "the Comeback Kid," even if he pulls off a repeat upset victory in Tuesday's New Hampshire primary.

"I hate that phrase because it was used by somebody else some time ago," said McCain, jokingly alluding to President Bill Clinton's victory in the 1992 Democratic race for the White House.

"How about 'The Mac is back'? How about that?"

McCain is in a familiar predicament. Once again, as in the 2000 presidential primary, he is locked in a must-win battle for New Hampshire against a formidable Republican foe who has a lot more money.

Eight years ago, the Arizonan defeated then-Texas Gov. George W. Bush by 18 percentage points.

Can he do the same to Mitt Romney?

Enthusiastic, over-capacity crowds at rallies and town-hall meetings suggest that McCain again is resonating in New Hampshire. Voters mob him for autographs on books and photos. Polls reflect a tight struggle with Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, although several recent surveys have shown McCain in front. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, another GOP hopeful, damaged Romney by winning handily in Thursday's Iowa caucuses.

"McCain is definitely peaking at the right time," said Andrew Smith, a political scientist and pollster at the University of New Hampshire in Durham. "It's a very similar timing to what he did in 2000."

McCain, who finished in a near tie for third in Iowa, is reveling in the electrified political atmosphere, but usually keeps his optimism in check.

"I think we've got a little bit of the lightning in the bottle that we had in 2000, but we've got a lot of work to do," McCain said Friday on his Straight Talk Express campaign bus.


Race for independents
For McCain, the New Hampshire political battlefield of 2008 is not the same as 2000's.

Eight years ago, McCain was the maverick who won the cheers of independents and centrists by jousting with the GOP establishment. This year, he is fighting for each independent vote with Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., who beat Sen. Hillary Clinton, the national Democratic front-runner in Iowa Thursday. Obama is drawing huge crowds in New Hampshire this weekend. Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, could make a play for libertarian-minded, anti-war independents, although McCain's advisers don't expect him to pull many votes from their candidate.

McCain said he is confident of his enduring appeal to many independents, who in 2006 made up 44 percent of New Hampshire's electorate. He believes many remain undecided.

"It's interesting to me because people are saying that they'll either go to Senator Obama or me," McCain said on the Straight Talk Express bus. "And that means that in the general election, I would compete for the independent voter, which I hope would make many Republicans look at my electability over any of the other candidates."

Some New Hampshire Republicans are doing exactly that.

"My husband and I are Republicans, and we feel that McCain is the only candidate who can beat the Democrats," said Amy Medling, 36, a homemaker from Nashua who greeted McCain at a Hollis pharmacy while holding her son, Rhett, 4. "With Mitt Romney having such a poor showing in the caucus, I think that's only going to help McCain out here."

Zo Tobi, a Lyndeborough independent who volunteers with the League of Conservation Voters and the Carbon Coalition, isn't sure if McCain can capture enough independent support. After quizzing McCain about global warming at a Friday night event in Hudson, Tobi, 22, said McCain's climate-change positions don't go far enough, although he leads the GOP field on the topic.

"I'm a good New Hampshire voter, and I haven't decided yet," Tobi said. "I would challenge all of the Republicans who are looking for my vote, and the vote of all the other independents here in New Hampshire - and there are a lot of us - to start taking this issue seriously."


McCain vs. Romney
Another big difference between 2000 and 2008 is that his opponent, Romney, is not underestimating McCain.

Romney, who also desperately needs a New Hampshire victory, is pounding McCain on immigration and taxes in a barrage of television ads. The Romney campaign has put out a series of "Straight Talk Detour" news releases, including one on Saturday that details McCain's past run-ins and criticisms of other Republicans and his occasional use of profanity. Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, long at political odds with McCain, appeared Saturday at a pro-Romney news conference in Manchester with former presidential candidate and Rep. Tom Tancredo, R-Colo.

Tancredo and Arpaio have national reputations as hardliners against illegal immigration. McCain's support of last year's immigration-reform bill, which critics like Tancredo blast as providing "amnesty," is one of McCain's vulnerabilities with Republicans.

"I didn't really get too negative about McCain - I left that to the congressman," Arpaio said after the event. Arpaio is Romney's honorary Arizona chairman.


'Change' is key
On Friday, Romney ridiculed McCain as a Washington insider who can't credibly make the claim that he'd "change Washington."

McCain, who has run tough TV ads focused on Romney, responded by saying throughout the day that he didn't believe New Hampshire voters would reward Romney's negativity. McCain also defended his Capitol Hill record, particularly his push for a "change" in strategy in the Iraq war.

"While working in Washington, I brought about many reforms, but the one I'm most proud of is the one that he had nothing to do with, when we were talking about the surge," McCain said. "The record is clear that he said nothing when we said we needed a change in strategy and we needed the surge. The greatest reform you can make is saving American lives and succeeding on the battlefield."

The McCain campaign also distributed by e-mail an October 2002 quote from Romney praising McCain. At the time, Romney was a Massachusetts gubernatorial candidate.

"He has always stood for reform and change," Romney had said of McCain. "And he's always fought the good battle, no matter what the odds."

On Saturday, the McCain campaign pointed out that in his 2004 book Turnaround, Romney called McCain "Washington's number one watchdog against waste."

Romney still respects McCain and believes he has served our country honorably, campaign spokeswoman Gail Gitcho said Saturday in an e-mailed statement.

"However, you can be honorable and also wrong on some of the issues that are important to the American people," Gitcho said.


McCain fans optimistic
McCain supporters say that despite Romney's criticism, they think their candidate is on the upswing, evidenced in the swelling crowds and excitement. At one McCain event on Saturday, the crowd was so large that fire marshals had to stop people from entering.

"The last couple of weeks, he's been picking up momentum, momentum, momentum, and I think this is going to ride him right through New Hampshire," said Dr. Griffin Dalianis, 65, a retired Nashua psychologist who served in Vietnam and is one of many military veterans backing McCain.

"I think he's going to win, and it will be a nice victory for him," predicted Rep. Christopher Shays, R-Conn., the House sponsor of McCain's 2002 campaign-finance-reform law, who appeared with McCain in Hudson. "John is doing well because he stayed true to his values."

Last week, McCain was asked in Iowa what he would do if he doesn't win New Hampshire.

"Suicide," he deadpanned. "I might have to go back to the United States Senate."

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I have serious concerns about McCain's mental capacity. There is something just not right about that man and the last thing we need in the White House is another lunatic !!