Thread: Poll: Ted Cruz Holds Lead in Wisconsin Days Before GOP Primary

Poll: Ted Cruz Holds Lead in Wisconsin Days Before GOP Primary

2

by MIKE FLYNN 3 Apr 2016 1044

A new poll from CBS News shows Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) up 6 in Wisconsin just days before the crucial winner-take-most primary. At stake on the April 5th primary is 42 delegates and a serious challenge to Trump’s quest to accumulate 1,237 delegates before the RNC convention.

The poll of 675 likely Republican primary voters finds Cruz with 43 percent of the vote, followed by Donald Trump with 37 percent. Ohio Governor John Kasich is a distant third with 18 percent of the vote. Its the 5th public poll of Wisconsin this week to find Cruz with the lead in the Badger State. Cruz leads the RealClearPolitics average of polls in the state by 6.8 points.

Trump had led polling in the state in February.

The CBS poll found that almost half of Republican voters in Wisconsin, 49 percent, report more negative views of Trump in recent weeks. A third of Republican voters say their opinion of Cruz has improved of the past weeks.

Almost half of Wisconsin Republicans, 48 percent, say they would be disattasifed or upset if Trump were the GOP nominee.

Cruz likely received a bump in his polling this week when he was endorsed by Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker. The former presidential candidate and popular governor has filmed a TV ad in support of Cruz and has campaigned with him around the state.

The winner of the Wisconsin primary receives 18 at-large delegates. Another 24 delegates are awarded to the winner of the state’s Congressional Districts. The winner of each of the state’s 8 districts receives 3 delegates. There is no proportional allocation in Wisconsin.

Donald Trump, however, holds a clear edge in New York, his home state. The Empire State is next on the primary calendar, awarding 95 delegates on April 19th.

Trump has the support of 52 percent of New York Republicans. Ted Cruz is a distant second with 21 percent, followed by John Kasich with 20 percent.

New York Republicans, however, are divided on how the party should address Trump’s dominance of Republican primaries. A plurality, 42 percent, believe Republicans should stop him from being nominated at the convention, while 37 percent say the party should rally behind him.

New York votes two weeks after Wisconsin. It’s possible that a Cruz victory in the Badger State could give him a boost in New York. Trump, however, remains firmly in control of that primary.

http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presid...-primary-poll/

That's far better than the 2 polls that showed Cruz 10 points ahead. So Trump is surging.

Ted Cruz Wins Pennsylvania Conservative Straw Poll

Wisconsin Primary Could Be Key to Contested Convention

• 
  By MEGHAN KENEALLY
• ALANA ABRAMSON

Apr 4, 2016, 10:42 AM ET



Neither Donald Trump nor Hillary Clinton, their respective party’s front-runner, are ahead in the latest polls in Wisconsin, where Sen. Ted Cruz is leading Trump by 10 percentage points and Sen. Bernie Sanders is leading Clinton by 4 points.

What Voters Care About in Wisconsin Ahead of the Primary

Trump Tries to Counter Anti-Trump Ads in Wisconsin Ahead of Primary

If that polling, released by Marquette University last week, holds true and Cruz wins Tuesday, Trump's inevitability might be in jeopardy, ABC News political analyst Matthew Dowd said.

"If he would win Wisconsin, he likely gets it, if he loses Wisconsin he likely doesn't," Dowd said of Trump’s securing the nomination outright.

"It's still possible, but much more difficult."

Delegate Math Determining the Conventions

There are 42 delegates up for grabs by the Republicans. Candidates have the potential to win all 42 delegates, but would need to win both the statewide vote and all of the state’s congressional districts in order to do so.

A Cruz win would mean Trump has an even smaller window to clinch the nomination by the time voting ends in June, increasing the likelihood that Cleveland will be a contested convention.

A Trump win in Wisconsin, particularly one where he wins all 42 delegates, would give him a chance to widen his delegate lead, lowering the percentage he has to win for the nomination, and giving him momentum heading into his home state of New York.

Additionally, it could also cement his credibility among unbound delegates who are deciding whom they will support at the convention in July.
Scott Olson/Getty Images
Democratic Fight for Momentum

For the Democrats, there are a total of 96 delegates available, 86 of which are pledged and 10 others who are superdelegates: the party leaders or elected officials who can support a candidate of their choosing at any point in the process, including as far out as the Philadelphia convention in July.

"On the Democratic side, it's important because if Bernie Sanders wins [Wisconsin], he's won six out of the last seven states," Dowd said.

"I don't think Hillary loses the nomination because of a loss in Wisconsin, but it complicates her life greatly. ... It continues his momentum and it forces her to rely on superdelegates."

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wisco...ry?id=38135757