Thread: Poll: Trump's lead in New Hampshire grows, while Sanders' edge shrinks

Poll: Trump's lead in New Hampshire grows, while Sanders' edge shrinks

By Jennifer Agiesta, CNN Polling Director
Updated 6:51 PM ET, Sun February 7, 2016

Washington (CNN)Donald Trump holds a growing lead in New Hampshire, according to the latest CNN/WMUR tracking poll, while on the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders' still-wide lead is a bit smaller.

Overall, 33% of likely Republican primary voters say they back Trump, giving him a 17-point edge. After seeing his lead shrink to 11 points following a second-place finish in the Iowa caucuses, Trump once again more than doubles the support of his nearest competitor, Marco Rubio.

The race for second place has tightened once again, with the slight edge Rubio appeared to grab following his third-place finish in Iowa shrinking. Overall, 16% back Rubio, 14% Ted Cruz, 11% John Kasich, 7% Jeb Bush, 6% Carly Fiorina, 4% Chris Christie and 2% Ben Carson.

The poll was completed as Saturday night's debate in New Hampshire was getting underway, and the results do not reflect reactions to the debate itself.

Though support for both Cruz and Rubio is within the margin of error of where they were immediately post-Iowa, what had been a five-point gap between the two has narrowed to two points, suggesting the race for second place in New Hampshire is about as close as it was before Iowa.

It's unclear when voters will make a final decision, as several nights of tracking have shown few shifts in the share who say they've made up their minds. A sizable 30% of likely GOP voters say they are still trying to decide whom to support, down just four points since the immediate post-Iowa numbers.

These results represent the most recent four nights of interviewing in the tracking poll. The University of New Hampshire's Survey Center, which completed the interviews, will be calling voters Sunday and Monday, and CNN and WMUR will release an update to the numbers again on Monday evening.

Two-thirds of likely Republican primary voters say they expect a Trump win Tuesday, up a tick since immediately post-Iowa, and slightly fewer now say they've ruled out a vote for Trump: 30% would not vote for Trump now, down from 37% who said so just after Iowa.

Over on the Democratic side, Sanders holds 58% among likely Democratic primary voters, well ahead of Clinton's 35%. That's a tighter race than right after Iowa, when the poll suggested Sanders led Clinton by a 2-to-1 margin.

And despite Sanders' far-wider lead, the sense of inevitability among likely Democratic voters that he will win is about the same as the expectations game on the Republican side for Trump: 66% say they think Sanders will win compared with 21% who see a Clinton victory as likely.

The CNN/WMUR poll was conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center by telephone from February 3-6. The poll includes interviews with a random sample of 953 adult residents of New Hampshire, including 406 who say they plan to vote in the Democratic presidential primary and 362 who plan to vote in the Republican presidential primary. For results among the sample of likely Democratic primary voters, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points, it is 5.2 for likely Republican primary voters.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/07/politi...ernie-sanders/

I understand that NH is notoriously populist; but hopefully this trend holds, and the GOP hangers-on drop out.

By Reena Flores CBS News February 7, 2016, 1:08 PM

New GOP N.H. poll puts one man firmly in lead

Leading up to the New Hampshire primary, a new poll shows Donald Trump continuing to dominate the Republican presidential field in the state, while four of his rivals are locked in a dead heat for second place.

According to a new Monmouth University survey released Sunday, Trump holds a considerable double-digit lead over his opponents, with 30 percent of likely Republican primary voters saying they would vote for the billionaire businessman.

Four candidates trail Trump in a virtual tie for second place: Ohio Gov. John Kasich garnered 14 percent support, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio earned 13 percent, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush also drew 13 percent, and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz had 12 percent support. Most candidates remained unchanged in their numbers from last month's Monmouth survey, except for Bush, who jumped nine points since January.

No other candidates received support in the double digits. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie polled at six percent, Carly Fiorina at 5 percent and Ben Carson at 4 percent.

With just days before the state's primary on Tuesday, just under half of likely Republican voters -- 49 percent -- said they were completely committed to their candidate. Thirty-one percent said they had a "strong preference" but were open to changing their minds. Twelve percent had just a slight preference and nine percent said they were undecided.

Much of the polling was conducted before the final GOP debate before the New Hampshire primary, from Feb. 4-6, among 508 likely Republican primary voters. The margin of error is 4.4 percentage points.

For likely Democratic primary voters, the Monmouth survey found Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders held just a 10-point advantage over rival Hillary Clinton, 52-42 percent -- a slightly closer race than the 53-39 percent results from last month's poll.

Sixty percent of likely voters said they were completely devoted to their candidate choice. Twenty-three percent stated a strong preference but still considered themselves open to a change of heart. Only seven percent had a "slight preference." Ten percent remain undecided.

Monmouth polled 502 likely New Hampshire Democratic primary voters. The margin of error among Democrats was 4.4 percentage points.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-tru...new-hampshire/