Thread: Poll: Voters Split Between Clinton and Trump in Hypothetical November Matchup

Apr 12 2016, 6:07 am ET

Poll: Voters Split Between Clinton and Trump in Hypothetical November Matchup

by Hannah Hartig and Stephanie Psyllos

Hillary Clinton still leads the Democratic field nationally with 49 percent support among Democrats and Democratic-leaners, but her margin narrows slightly to six points from nine points last week, while Bernie Sanders has support from 43 percent of the Democratic electorate, according to the latest NBC News/SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking poll.

Apr 12 2016, 6:01 am ET

In the Republican primary race, Donald Trump continues to lead the field by 16 points with 46 percent support among Republicans and Republican-leaners, with Sen. Ted Cruz up two points from last week with 30 percent support and Gov. John Kasich trailing behind with 16 percent support, down 2 points from last week.

The poll was conducted online from April 4 through April 10 of 11,204 adults aged 18 and over who say they are registered to vote.

Apr 12 2016, 6:01 am ET

With a possible contested convention on the horizon for the Republicans, both Cruz and Trump have argued that they would be best suited to beat Hillary Clinton — if she is the nominee — in the general election in November. It is interesting, then, to look at whether Trump or Cruz would be more competitive in a general election match up against the current Democratic front-runner.

When given the choice between Clinton, Cruz, a third party candidate, or not voting, registered voters are fairly split between Clinton and Cruz: Thirty-seven percent would vote for Clinton and 32 percent would vote for Cruz. Another 19 percent would vote for an unnamed third party candidate and 10 percent would not vote at all.

If these were the candidates in November...
If these were the candidates in November... NBC News/Survey Monkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll
Apr 12 2016, 6:02 am ET

When asked about Trump as the GOP nominee in November instead of Cruz, registered voters are split between Clinton and Trump, though the race is tighter: Thirty-eight percent would vote for Clinton and 36 percent would vote for Trump. Another 16 percent would vote for a third party candidate and 8 percent would abstain from voting.

If these were the candidates in November...
If these were the candidates in November... NBC News/Survey Monkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll
Apr 12 2016, 6:02 am ET

When looking at this question by candidate support, only about half of Cruz supporters and half of Trump supporters said they would vote for the other GOP candidate in a general election should the Democratic candidate be Hillary Clinton.

In a theoretical November contest wherein Clinton and Trump were the candidates, 56 percent of Cruz supporters would vote for Trump and a quarter would vote for a third party candidate.

How Cruz supporters would vote in November
How Cruz supporters would vote in November NBC News/Survey Monkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll
Apr 12 2016, 6:03 am ET

Similarly, 53 percent of Trump supporters would vote for Cruz and 28 percent would vote for a third party candidate if their options in November were between Clinton and Cruz.

How Trump supporters would vote in November
How Trump supporters would vote in November NBC News/Survey Monkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll
Apr 12 2016, 6:03 am ET

Though the race is tighter in a general election match-up between Clinton and Trump, a hypothetical contest between Clinton and either GOP front-runner is still very close.

The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking poll was conducted online April 4 through April 10, 2016 among a national sample of 12,692 adults aged 18 and over, including 11,204 who say they are registered to vote. Respondents for this non-probability survey were selected from the nearly three million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. Results have an error estimate of plus or minus 1.3 percentage points. A full description of our methodology and the poll can be found here.

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016...atchup-n554306

(click on link for graphs)

So Trump winning primary voters by 16% and within 2% of beating Hillary, closer than Cruz. OH YES!!

And Trump hasn't even gotten started on Hillary.

STAY TRUE!! STAY TRUMP!!

i don't want her in the wh why so she can kill then rest of us just like she kill our 4 guy No thank

Trump has the best chance to beat a democrat - republican party should realize that fact and back him instead of a "no chance to win nationally" cruz. They would rather lose than close the borders, remove illegals, reduce importing persons to take our jobs or be on the dole.

They also want to perpetuate this free trade treason globalism. Cruz supported the TPP and legalization. He will do so again, and this is what this STOP TRUMP, NEVER TRUMP and ANYONE BUT TRUMP is all about. It's not about Trump or his "tone", there's nothing wrong with his "tone", it's not about Trump and his "rhetoric", there's nothing wrong with his rhetoric, he just tells it like it is and tells us the truth many of have known for years but others haven't and he's informing them in a massive way that we can't. The STOP TRUMP, NEVER TRUMP and ANYONE BUT TRUMP is about the two issues of immigration and trade, they want to keep open borders and these bad trade deals. That's why the Establishment hates Trump, that's why the state party insiders hate Trump and that's why the PACS were formed to try to stop him lies and personal attacks.

The "Trump can't beat Hillary" mantra won't fly, because it's not true. He can certainly beat her or Bernie. He has to start a campaign and focus on them which he hasn't done yet because he's still batting the leftovers out of the park. Will he win the General Election? We don't know who will win, but Donald Trump has everything it takes to win this and win it big. He's got the track record, experience, knowledge, intelligence, common sense, genius instincts, courageous judgment, the will and skill to fix our country, and an unwavering loyalty to the American People.

Donald Trump is truly the best candidate for President of the United States that we've had the opportunity to put in the White House in my life time. Lets don't mess this up. Trump is our ONE SHOT to actually fix our poor beleaguered country, bring peace on earth and leave a healed, strong, prosperous and happy nation in a much safer better world for the next generation.