Thread: Say It Ain't So, Tingles! MSNBC's Matthews Says Dems Could Lose 10 Senate Seats In Th

Could These Three BIG House Votes This Week Force Democrats Into the Danger Zone?

By Norvell Rose
2 10:40 am May 5, 2014

The Benghazi and IRS scandals are front and center in the U.S. House this week. And three looming House votes could put a number of vulnerable Democrat Reps in a real political pickle.
On Benghazi, a floor vote to empower a select committee to dig out the truth about the attacks on the U.S. compound will likely be held this week, with the Republican majority in the House all but certain to make sure the special investigative unit gets up and running. Named to head up this unit — Rep. Trey Gowdy (R-SC), the “Benghazi Bulldog”, known for his aggressive, unrelenting style of questioning.
Other votes — whether to hold former IRS official Lois “Stonewall” Lerner in contempt of Congress, and to demand a special counsel to look into the IRS targeting of Tea Party and other conservative groups.
The Washington Times sums up the political peril for nervous House Democrats in the danger zone — those facing tough re-election battles in November:

…Red-state Democrats in the House, some of whom are fighting for their political lives, will have to decide whether to side with the embattled president and resist the investigations and questions or whether to vote with Republicans.

With poll numbers for both Obama and the Democrats sinking, it’ll be interesting (fun) to watch how those red-state Dems try to dance their way through this political minefield.

http://www.libertynews.com/2014/05/c...e-danger-zone/

Poll Shows That Underdog Upsets Could Define 2014 Midterms

May 14, 2014 by Personal Liberty News Desk

As midterm election season heats up, new polling suggests that incumbent lawmakers are going to have to work hard to get re-elected. An overwhelming majority of Americans say that most members of Congress do not deserve reelection.
According to polling data from Gallup, 72 percent of likely voters want current members of Congress to have to find a new job. Just 22 percent said that they are happy with the job that current officeholders are doing.
The polling agency reports that the number of Americans who think their lawmakers deserve re-election is up slightly from 17 percent in January. Still, Gallup says, “even with the slight increase, the current 22% is lower than … any other election year.”
A small gap in opinions exists along party lines, with Democrats saying most members of Congress deserve re-election 28 percent of the time compared to 22 percent of Republicans. Just 16 percent of independent voters believe current members Congress should keep their jobs.
Gallup predicts:

A logical consequence of such dim views of Congress and its incumbents is that voters may take out their frustrations at the ballot box. Incumbent members of Congress are generally quite successful in getting re-elected, with roughly nine in 10 of those who seek re-election winning. However, the re-election rate tends to be lower in years when voters are less apt to think their own member or most members of Congress deserve re-election.
For example, in 1992 and 2010, when roughly 30% of registered voters thought most members of Congress deserved re-election and half thought their own member did, the incumbent re-election rate in the House of Representatives was lower than 90%. In turn, in the 1998-2002 elections, when U.S. voters were much more positive toward Congress, the re-election rates were 96% or higher.

Recent Tea Party victories West Virginia, Nebraska and Florida serve to illustrate that voters— at least conservative ones— are in a mood to revolt against the political establishment.

http://personalliberty.com/poll-show...2014-midterms/

Conservative Daily

We'd love to see Tingles say this to Sen. Tim Scott's face...



Tingles Goes Tingles: Republicans Have Primary Runoffs So 'No Black Guy' Can Ever Win

I'm sure Senator Tim Scott would beg to differ...
ijreview.com

Tingles Goes Tingles: Republicans Have Primary Runoffs So ‘No Black Guy’ Can Ever Win

By Mike Miller



I mean, seriously, what’s left to be said about MSNBC’s Chris Matthews and his obsession with race? In this episode, Tingles says that Republicans hold runoffs in close elections in the South to keep “black guys” from winning. Yeah, he really said that.
Ironically, when “black guys” do win Republican seats (See: South Carolina Senator Tim Scott), they are ridiculed and berated by the left for leaving the liberal plantation. Can’t win with these people.

Check Out The Administration’s Latest Backdoor Effort To Control Gun Sales

H/T – Truth Revolt

http://www.ijreview.com/2014/05/1402...-can-ever-win/

2014 Midterm Elections Forecast | About This Project
Election Lab

Projected Senate

48 Democrats | Republicans 52

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-tra...ction-lab-2014

2014 Midterm Elections Forecast | About This Project

Election Lab

Projected House

196 Democrats | Republicans 239

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-tra...ction-lab-2014

Like most forecasting models, Election Lab uses the past to predict the future. To predict House and Senate elections in 2014, we draw on the elections from 1980-2012. We first look at how well key factors were related to outcomes in those past elections. Then, we gather information about those same factors for 2014. Assuming that these factors will be related to election outcomes in 2014 in the same way they were from 1980 to 2012, we can make a prediction about who will win each race. Read more about our methodology.

Harry Reid and Senate Dems Paralyzed By Fear Of Mid-Term Elections

Posted on 29 June, 2014 by clyde

By Andrew Taylor, AP

A fear of voting has gripped Democratic leaders in the Senate, slowing the chamber’s modest productivity this election season to a near halt.

With control of the Senate at risk in November, leaders are going to remarkable lengths to protect endangered Democrats from casting tough votes and to deny Republicans legislative victories in the midst of the campaign. The phobia means even bipartisan legislation to boost energy efficiency, manufacturing, sportsmen’s rights and more could be scuttled.
The Senate’s masters of process are finding a variety of ways to shut down debate.
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., now is requiring an elusive 60-vote supermajority to deal with amendments to spending bills, instead of the usual simple majority, a step that makes it much more difficult to put politically sensitive matters into contention. This was a flip from his approach to Obama administration nominees, when he decided most could be moved ahead with a straight majority instead of the 60 votes needed before.

RedFlagNews

http://gopthedailydose.com/2014/06/2...erm-elections/

WaPo Model: GOP Has 86 Percent Chance of Winning Senate in 2014

Guy Benson | Jul 16, 2014




I wrote about a similar finding back in May, poking fun at the precision of this model (eighty-six percent, not eighty-five) as silly, while confessing I wasn't -- and still am not -- nearly as bullish on Republicans' chances as these Washington Post/Election Lab analysts are. Nevertheless, there's little doubt that Democrats are in for a difficult fight to maintain their Senate majority:

Our model suggests that the GOP has a very good chance of winning the Republican-leaning states: Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky, and Louisiana. That gives them five seats. They also have a better than 50-50 chance of winning Iowa, where Joni Ernst’s recent surge has made the race neck-and-neck—a trend that is consistent with what our model suggested about the Iowa race back in May. Meanwhile, Democrats have a good chance of winning Colorado, Michigan, and North Carolina.

That summary also assumes that Republicans will hold on to large leads in the contests to fill open seats in Montana, West Virginia and South Dakota. It also strangely lists Iowa is a likely Republican pick-up, while categorizing North Carolina as solid for Democrats. I'm dubious of both propositions, but this is all an imprecise science. Here's how the Election Lab Senate projection map looks at the moment, less than four months out from the midterms:



Rather than repackage my admonition from May, I'll take the liberty of quoting myself verbatim: "You may recall that Republicans were supposed to have a decent chance to capture the Senate two years ago. They managed to lose two seats. This round, if the party were to relinquish any of the 45 seats they currently control or fail to secure the trio of aforementioned low-hanging pick-ups, it’s probably game over right out of the gate. Moral of the story: Take nothing for granted." That being said, Chris Cillizza points to another historical trend that pulls strongly in Team Red's favor. This is why the lame duck president's dismal approval ratings still matter:





One of the biggest threats to Senate Democrats' control of the upper chamber is the relative ambivalence and disillusionment among core sectors of Obama's 2012 victory coalition. In order to mitigate their inevitable losses, Democrats must motivate these groups -- which explains their shameless and utterly perfidious grandstanding about the Hobby Lobby decision and birth control. The Washington Post's fact-checker ran through an embarrassing series of false and misleading statements from elected Democrats, who are attempting to convince their low-information base that the Supreme Court effectively handed employers veto power over the contraceptive choices of female employees. That's not what the Court did in its appropriate and narrow ruling, of course, but details are intentionally being subordinated to passions here. The Left's base-goosing, anti-liberty rhetoric is taking various forms. For instance:



Senate Democrats ✔ @SenateDems Follow .@SenWarren: Remember the government shutdown? That was started by a GOP effort to let employers deny workers access to birth control.
4:52 PM - 15 Jul 2014

Indeed, who among us doesn't remember that the government shutdown was all about birth control? And that anti-McConnell ad from a pro-abortion group jumps aboard the moronic "not my boss' business" bandwagon -- a specious slogan that gets things perfectly backward. Indeed, it's not women's boss' business what sorts of birth control they choose to use. The Obama administration proactively made it some "bosses' business" when they required -- for the first time in US history -- that employers pay for a litany of contraceptives, even if that act violated the proprietors' religious beliefs. The administration has also sought to extend this unprecedented coercion to explicitly religious groups, embodied by the outrageous lawsuit against the Little Sisters of the Poor. Defenders of religious liberty merely want to return America to the pre-2012 dark ages, when women were free to obtain the affordable birth control methods of their choice, and the vast majority of businesses voluntarily provided contraceptive-inclusive health coverage. Radical. One last thing: The NARAL ad hits McConnell for opposing "equal pay for women." Over to you, Obama White House.


http://townhall.com/tipsheet/guybens...campaign=nl_pm

Well, I will not be helping them, guaranteed that their will not be anyone in Congress again nexr term that I voted for!

Battleground Poll: Obama Disapproval Climbs to 57 Percent

Guy Benson | Jul 21, 2014



Politico's latest public opinion survey of competitive 2014 states and districts is reminiscent of NPR's similarly-designed poll released a month ago. President Obama's job approval rating is underwater by double digits (43/57), while the GOP owns a two-point edge on the generic Congressional ballot (which typically favors Democrats), and a seven-point lead on foreign policy. A 45 percent plurality of battleground voters support repealing Obamacare, with an additional 38 percent backing changes to the law. Fewer than one in five favor leaving Democrats' signature healthcare experiment intact. For all of their "fix, don't nix" rhetoric, Congressional Democrats' 2015 budget proposed zero changes to Obamacare, as liberal Senators and pundits alike continue to blindly extol its implementation:




The Washington Post, meanwhile, adds yet another data point to the very long list of worrisome 2014 turnout indicators for Democrats:

Aaron Blake ✔ @AaronBlakeWP Follow Dem primary turnout is down 30% from 2010. GOP primary turnout is on-par with history. http://wapo.st/1zY3WmO
2:32 PM - 21 Jul 2014

What's perhaps most notable, though, is the partisan difference. Republican primary turnout overtook Democratic turnout for the first time in 2010, and that difference is even bigger this primary season. This is hardly the first warning sign when it comes to Democrats' turnout problem...But if it portends anything close to what's coming in the 2014 election, that's really, really troubling for Democrats.

I'll leave you with one last tidbit from the poll:



(42/53).

http://townhall.com/tipsheet/guybens...-poll-n1864318

Human Events

Looks like 2014 is going to be a good year ==>



Forecast gives GOP 86 percent chance of taking over senate | Human Events
According to the Washington Post's "Election Lab" forecast model, the...
humanevents.com



http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-tra...ction-lab-2014

2014 Midterm Elections Forecast

Election Lab

Republicans are likely to take control of the Senate.
87% chance as of today.

Republicans are likely to retain control of the House.
Greater than 99% chance as of today.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-tra...ction-lab-2014