Thread: Slam dunk of passing in the senate? Someone please help me analyze this

Ok, in analyzing the upcoming senate vote for amnesty, it looks like to me the Gang of 8 has a very good chance of passing. I don't like it, but I am just trying to look at it realistically. Here is my analysis. Please tell me I am wrong.

The Dems plus the independents have 54 votes. It is possible they will lose a few of those. Let's say they lose up to 4 votes (to me seems unlikely but let's go to an extreme). That means they then have 50 votes.

Then, they already have the following supporters on the GOP:
Flake (Gang of
McCain (Gang of
Graham (Gang of
Rubio (Gang of
Ayotte (already announced publicly her support)
Hoeven (crafted the bogus border security enhancement)
Corker (crafted the bogus border security enhancement)
McConnell (listed on ALIPAC as supporting)
Cornyn (listed on ALIPAC as supporting)

That leaves ONLY ONE VOTE more they need. Senator Paul is listed on ALIPAC as leaning towards supporting the bill. Plus, there are NUMEROUS wussy GOP senators such as Murkowski, Alexander, Hatch, Collins, Heller, Kirk). It would seem impossible that not one of these 7 wussy GOP senators would vote yes.

Not trying to be negative. I just want to know what the odds are looking like in the senate. Please tell me I am wrong to make me feel better.

Looks like its over. I just read that Heller, Kirk, and Murkowski were sponsors of Hoeven and Corker's amendment. That puts them easily over 60 votes in the senate for the final vote.

I would point out that we NEVER really know what's going to happen until it does. Stranger things have happened. Yes, it appears that it will pass the Senate, but we don't KNOW that, so we should keep working and calling. If it does pass the Senate, please don't forget that the Republicans hold the House, so we will fight and call in the House!

As my favorite college basketball coach used to say, "Don't give up, don't EVER give up!!"
http://www.americanrhetoric.com/spee...oespyaward.htm

Good point. I am not saying to stop fighting amnesty in the senate. However, I do feel that an all out fight needs to begin now (and not wait until the senate vote) in the House. Every patriotic American needs to visit their House Rep in person at their district offices and demand no amnesty. I have been contacting the Republican Party also because they are helping to push amnesty.

You are right, we will have to hold the GOP's feet to the fire! They have to be reminded constantly that they are CONSERVATIVES (supposedly, anyway) You are also right that it won't hurt to start contacting House members in preparation for the bill moving there, in case it does. We have a list of house reps--
http://www.alipac.us/f8/alipacs-us-c...t-list-276375/

There is also a Congressional website-- www.house.gov/representatives/ --that will take you straight to a listing where you can find your rep and her/his website, contact information, and local offices.

We need to give it our all in the Senate. Never, ever give up. Remember, the House only requires a simple majority to to pass legislation, whereas the Senate needs 60 votes to end debate before proceeding to a vote. Yes, a number of Senators are indicating they will support S.744 with this amendment. However, keep in mind that politicians often do not take an iron-clad position on something until they have to (such as the cloture vote). Even Sen. Hoeven, one of the sponsors of this amendment, has apparently left himself an escape route. The only thing that is certain in the Senate is that we will lose if we stop trying. So keep calling your Senators!

Originally Posted by JamesBowen

We need to give it our all in the Senate. Never, ever give up. Remember, the House only requires a simple majority to to pass legislation, whereas the Senate needs 60 votes to end debate before proceeding to a vote. Yes, a number of Senators are indicating they will support S.744 with this amendment. However, keep in mind that politicians often do not take an iron-clad position on something until they have to (such as the cloture vote). Even Sen. Hoeven, one of the sponsors of this amendment, has apparently left himself an escape route. The only thing that is certain in the Senate is that we will lose if we stop trying. So keep calling your Senators!

Absolutely!! If you want to call House Reps, fine, but don't do it in place of calling the Senate. Do it IN ADDITION to calling the Senate, and call the Senate FIRST!!