Thread: Trump Up +16 In Latest SC Poll; Leads By +10 With Evangelicals

by JOHN NOLTE
12 Feb 2016
257 comments

After a dry spell of nearly a month, and all the political drama and actual voting that has taken place in Iowa and New Hampshire, we finally have a new poll out of South Carolina, where the next round of voting begins in less than 10 days. And, quite incredibly, it shows that … almost nothing has changed. Donald Trump is still up by double digits, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)
is in second, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) is in third.

The Augusta Chronicle poll, taken on February 10 and 11, almost perfectly mirrors its immediate predecessor, a NBC poll taken during the third week of January. With 36% support, Trump is in first place by +16 points. Cruz is in second with 20%. Rubio jumped a statistically insignificant +1 to enjoy 15% support.

Jeb Bush jumped +2 to 11%.

The only notable change is Kasich’s leap from 1% to 9%. That’s a nice jump … into fifth place.

The best news is for Trump, who has managed to hold on to a substantial lead. The news for Rubio is mixed. After that brutal debate performance, the Florida senator’s support didn’t crater in South Carolina like it did in New Hampshire. Nevertheless, he’s still stuck -21 points behind Trump. On the flip-side, he is leading in the Establishment Lane, and holding that lead will become increasingly important as this primary campaign rolls on.

Another South Carolina poll released today shows almost the exact same results — Trump: 36%, Cruz: 19%, Rubio: 15%, Bush: 11%. Kasich: 9% — and adds the fascinating detail that Trump is leading Cruz among evangelicals by +10 points.

http://www.breitbart.com/big-governm...beats-rubio-5/

NEW SOUTH CAROLINA POLL RESULTS LEAKED SHOW CRUZ WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE OF THE DONALD


Posted by The Right Scoop on Feb 11, 2016 at 1:22 PM in Politics | 534 Comments
By The Right Scoop

Oh my. I think these new South Carolina poll results leaked to Bill Kristol at the Weekly Standard are gonna cause some new Trumpertantrums to emerge:

I’ve just heard from a political operative whom I’ve known a long time and whose integrity I trust. This person is working with an organization—not one of the campaigns—that was in the field (using a very reputable pollster) Wednesday night in South Carolina.

Here’s what the pollster found:

Trump 32
Cruz 26
Rubio 20
Bush 10
Carson 7
Kasich 2

We know nothing about this poll except these few results. But if they are any indication, Trump may have a fight on his hands in South Carolina from the Cruzster.

I’ll be posting more polling info on South Carolina once official results start coming out.


Read more: http://therightscoop.com/new-south-c...#ixzz3zzDvlcKb

Here we go: Trump 36, Cruz 19, Rubio 15, Bush 11, Kasich 9 in Opinion Savvy poll of South Carolina
posted at 11:21 am on February 12, 2016 by Allahpundit

Thanks goodness the poll drought of SC is over. I knew I was in withdrawal when I started physically shaking yesterday, but I didn’t realize how bad the problem was until I started seriously considering blogging a national poll this morning — after individual states had started voting! — just to get my fix. This is what addiction looks like.

If you’re curious about Opinion Savvy, their final poll of Iowa had Trump at 20, Cruz at 19, and Rubio at 19. They caught Rubio’s surge in other words, but missed his actual take of the vote by five points and Cruz’s take by eight. But then, even an eight-point miss on this new survey of South Carolina would still leave Trump winning the state. That’s how big his lead is.

Trump leads among those describing themselves as “very conservative,” “somewhat conservative,” “moderate” and “somewhat liberal.” John Kasich leads among the few South Carolina GOP voters who describe themselves as “very liberal.”

Nearly 60% of the voters in the GOP primary identify themselves as “evangelical” in the poll. But even among these evangelical voters, Trump leads Cruz by ten points. Of course South Carolina primaries can be very volatile and turnout can greatly impact the final numbers. But it appears Trump has consolidated and expanded upon his lead in South Carolina after New Hampshire in this poll. This is notable given that recent Opinion Savvy surveys of this race in South Carolina have shown Trump in a closer race there than most other surveys.

Per the crosstabs, Trump and Cruz are basically tied among “very conservative” voters but Trump obliterates him among every group further to the left of that. Needless to say, if Cruz can’t pile up a lead among evangelicals and the most conservative voters, we’re looking at a blowout next Saturday. Meanwhile, look at how badly Bush and Kasich are hurting Rubio here. He’s in contention for second place and they’ve got 20 percent(!) of the vote between them, presumably most of which would move to Rubio as a second choice if they weren’t in play. If you’re wondering why Cruz is still attacking Rubio in SC, a la that “therapy group” ad that got pulled last night because one of the actors had done softcore porn, these numbers would explain why. If Cruz really is staring at a distant second in South Carolina then he has a lot more to worry about from Rubio catching him than from Trump winning. Cruz can survive losing here, although a landslide would damage his strategy of cleaning up in the SEC states. Finishing third behind Rubio would be devastating, though. You’ll know Trump is walking away with this race and Rubio is in striking distance of Cruz by who Cruz ends up targeting in his ads next week.

Oh, all right. Let’s blog the national poll too. New from Morning Consult:

Trump 44, Cruz 17, Carson 10, Rubio 10 (click on link for chart)

Those are registered, not likely, voters, but if you’re looking for evidence that Trump’s big win in New Hampshire is building momentum for him in other states, here’s some. The fact that he’s blasted through 40 percent, even temporarily, also seems significant in that the mid- to high 30s have been his ceiling in most national polls until now. In fact, not only is 44 percent his best take ever in a national poll, it’s only the third time he’s cracked the 40-point ceiling. He reached 41 percent a few weeks ago in a CNN survey and 41 again in a Monmouth survey in early December. (Both also polls of registered voters, it should be noted.)

The idea that the field will winnow and the anti-Trump faction will carry someone else to victory continues to seem plausible-ish to lots of righty commentators, but I wonder how many Republicans out there who like Trump and know him much better than the other candidates by dint of his celebrity are newly open to him as nominee now that he’s scored a major win (and may be on the brink of another). One of the key “arguments” against Trump for some undecideds, I think, is “c’mon, we’re not gonna nominate Trump.” The weaker that argument seems, the more undecideds it may shake loose.

http://hotair.com/archives/2016/02/1...outh-carolina/

Lawsuits, soft porn stars, $20 parking, push polls........what next?

What's the $20 parking story? Is that what people and garages are charging for people to park at Trump events?

What's the $20 parking story? Is that what people and garages are charging for people to park at Trump events?

Big rally in Fla. and CNN filmed signs posted for parking for $20, his campaign was asked why the charge, they have not answered yet. Not a big deal.

Originally Posted by joe s

Big rally in Fla. and CNN filmed signs posted for parking for $20, his campaign was asked why the charge, they have not answered yet. Not a big deal.

In all fairness the parking fee probably had absolutely nothing to do with the Trump campaign. It was probably just a private owner taking advantage of the situation (guesswork on my part).

Originally Posted by MW

In all fairness the parking fee probably had absolutely nothing to do with the Trump campaign. It was probably just a private owner taking advantage of the situation (guesswork on my part).

It is totally irrelevant, a non-issue. What is relevant however is Trumps new ad in SC on illegal immigration, POWERFUL STUFF.

An illegal immigrant (gang member) released from prison guns down a young African-American man and the father of the deceased youth supports Trump because he is going to enforce the law on immigration.

Joe s wrote (excerpt):

It is totally irrelevant, a non-issue. What is relevant however is Trumps new ad in SC on illegal immigration, POWERFUL STUFF.

I never said it was relevant and I wasn't the one that brought it up. I was just pointing out that the price probably had nothing to do with Trump or his campaign.

Originally Posted by MW

Joe s wrote (excerpt):



I never said it was relevant and I wasn't the one that brought it up. I was just pointing out that the price probably had nothing to do with Trump or his campaign.

I was not directing relevancy at your comment, but at the issue of paying for parking. My apologies if it came out that way or was construed that way.