Thread: William: Question for Ron Paul Supporters

I'm guessing that there's a small chance that Paul could win via delegates at a brokered convention. If McCain reaches that magic number of 1151 (or whatever it is) before the convention, then I believe that McCain is the winner.

The good thing is that Paul supporters have been really good about trying to become delegates, and, for example, just because Florida has 57 delegates and McCain won Florida, I don't think that he necessarily automatically gets all of those. With alot of Paul people as delegates, some of those may actually go to Paul. I can't prove that at this time, but I need to research the article that I saw that mentioned that.

I don't want to tell ALIPAC what they should do. That should be a function of the leaders of the group. I'd like it if they supported Paul, but in the end, I'll still be an ALIPAC supporter even if they don't, or do something else, and I'll still be a Paul supporter whether he wins, loses, or drops out.

I'm glad that ALIPAC is trying to reach out to the membership to get their opinions, though.

Thanks W for trying to handle this in a very compassionate, logical way.

Ostrich

I do not think Ron Paul will run as a third party candidate because of his Congressional seat, and he has said that he would not. At this point, I guess a brokered convention is our only hope. In my county, I held my nose and changed my voter registration to Rep. and have become a delegate to the county GOP convention. I know of other Ron Paul supporters in my area who have done the same thing. I do know the strategy to get delegates is still in force, and have heard of no plans to make changes. From what I heard at our GOP precinct meeting Tuesday evening, I think in NC that GOP voters will be more likely to swing from Romney to Huckabee rather than to McCain, which would certainly make the chances better for a brokered convention.

Thanks William for considering our opinions in deciding what to do next! While I would love to see ALIPAC endorse Ron Paul, I can see how that might cause problems. However, I am afraid it is going to take something really DRASTIC to defeat McCain/Hillary/Obama. I refuse to vote for any of them, and will be hard pressed to vote for Huckabee either.

PS--Hope sturmruger is right that RP can retain his seat AND run as an independent at the same time. Personally, I'd like to see him run as a Constitutionalist, but they aren't on the ballot in every state. But then, neither are the Libertarians.

Part of message from Ron Paul Campaign....

January 30, 2008

Our opponents are free to beat up on each other and wear themselves down while we gather our supporters and prepare to storm the convention with delegates.

Last night, over 60,000 people stood up and asked for an end to the runaway violation of our liberties. But contrary to the impression you may be getting from the mainstream media, no national delegates have yet been won in Florida. Those delegates will only be awarded between February 6 and April 30 at delegate selection caucuses, and many of those delegates will be supporters of Dr. Paul.

Originally Posted by TheOstrich

I'm guessing that there's a small chance that Paul could win via delegates at a brokered convention. If McCain reaches that magic number of 1151 (or whatever it is) before the convention, then I believe that McCain is the winner.

The good thing is that Paul supporters have been really good about trying to become delegates, and, for example, just because Florida has 57 delegates and McCain won Florida, I don't think that he necessarily automatically gets all of those. With alot of Paul people as delegates, some of those may actually go to Paul. I can't prove that at this time, but I need to research the article that I saw that mentioned that.

I don't want to tell ALIPAC what they should do. That should be a function of the leaders of the group. I'd like it if they supported Paul, but in the end, I'll still be an ALIPAC supporter even if they don't, or do something else, and I'll still be a Paul supporter whether he wins, loses, or drops out.

I'm glad that ALIPAC is trying to reach out to the membership to get their opinions, though.

Thanks W for trying to handle this in a very compassionate, logical way.

Ostrich

Well said Ostrich. That pretty much sums up my thoughts as well.

Originally Posted by ShockedinCalifornia

NO. I don't think ALIPAC should throw support to Ron Paul or any other candidate at this time, or perhaps ever. Statistically, he has no chance to win. I agree with William that unless an independent candidate emerges that fits with our basic tenents we should surround the two frontrunners with flaming arrows.

But what good does doing just that do? We can bad mouth the front-runners (Huck, McCain, Clinton, Obama) all we want. But ultimately, if they are the only choices left, the asleep American masses will just sheepishly vote for one of them or just not vote at all (just the way they've done in the primaries). Either way, the pro-amnesty establishment wins.

Wouldn't it be easier over the next 8 months to excite people and recruit for our cause if we're united behind even a small glimmer of hope (Ron Paul) rather than recruit via the throw-in-the-towel/ vote-for-whoever / we-lost-the-Presidential-race mentality ? Just a thought........

Originally Posted by ALIPAC

My question for Ron Paul supporters is, isn't it almost mathematically impossible for Ron Paul to generate the delegate votes he would need to win the GOP Primary?

It's a long shot, for sure. Arguably, Romney's suspension may have narrowed the odds for a brokered convention.

Here is my take. To win the GOP nomination, you need 1,191 delegates. According to CNN, McCain currently has about 697 pledged delegates. Twenty two state primaries remain, ranging from Vermont to New Mexico to North Carolina. These remaining primaries will award 1,017 delegates. If McCain gets 494 of those delegates, he wins the nomination.

I'm not a statistics major, so take the following figures with a grain of salt. Hopefully they at least paint a general picture of what is going on.

McCain has averaged a delegate count of about 23 delegates from the last 30 primaries. If this stayed constant, at the end of the 22 remaining state primaries he would have 506 additional delegates. Added with the 697 he already has, that would have come to 1,203 delegates...just over the required 1,191.

So if all things had remained the same, McCain would have won the nomination BARELY. So, without Romney, there now needs to be some sort of backlash against McCain and in favor of both Paul and Huckabee to have hope for a brokered convention.

The reality is that if a brokered convention is the goal, than all emotions aside, Huckabee has to have a good showing. I know people don't want to hear that, but objectively speaking, if Huckabee drops out now or loses out, McCain gets the nod. Paul needs to do better as well, of course.

Romney's delegates are an X-factor. He may use them as a bargaining chip somewhere down the road.

To sum it up, a brokered convention is looking less likely as we get down to fewer and fewer candidates. That might be the reason we haven't had one in fifty years.

Maybe contacting Ron Paul and letting him explain his plan would be the best thing to do.

Since TX has a lot of delegates is it possible RP could win his home state of TX ? If he and Huckabee could get first and second in some upcoming primaries it may be enough to stop McClain.

If we pull together at least we will know we have done everything we could and I still feel RP has a chance.

He has brought some new people on board and just today he added 2 people.A foreign policy expert and a terrroist expert so he seems to be gearing up instead of slowing down.

He is scheduled to be in the MSN debate later this month too.

I will abide by whatever W decides but I still will support RP.

Maybe contacting Ron Paul and letting him explain his plan would be the best thing to do.

Since TX has a lot of delegates is it possible RP could win his home state of TX ? If he and Huckabee could get first and second in some upcoming primaries it may be enough to stop McClain.

If we pull together at least we will know we have done everything we could and I still feel RP has a chance.

He has brought some new people on board and just today he added 2 people.A foreign policy expert and a terrroist expert so he seems to be gearing up instead of slowing down.

He is scheduled to be in the MSN debate later this month too.

I will abide by whatever W decides but I support RP.

This is my take on it. Romney was either pressured by the party or promised something big to suspend his campaign. He didn't quit so he holds all those delegates. Huckabee will stay in the race to win the rest of the southern states and collect those delegates. Close to the convention Romney and Huckabee will drop out and give Mccain all of their delegates thereby blocking a brokered convention at ALL COSTS. McCain will win the nomination and take either Romney or Huckabee as a running mate. God Bless Ron Paul they have trumped his stradegy...sigh.

Originally Posted by jazzloversinc

This is my take on it. Romney was either pressured by the party or promised something big to suspend his campaign. He didn't quit so he holds all those delegates. Huckabee will stay in the race to win the rest of the southern states and collect those delegates. Close to the convention Romney and Huckabee will drop out and give Mccain all of their delegates thereby blocking a brokered convention at ALL COSTS. McCain will win the nomination and take either Romney or Huckabee as a running mate. God Bless Ron Paul they have trumped his stradegy...sigh.

Maybe not if the conservative wing sticks together and is adamant about not voting for McCain.