Thread: Expert: U.S. population to hit 1 billion by 2100

Expert: U.S. population to hit 1 billion by 2100

04-29-08



By Haya El Nasser, USA TODAY



If the USA seems too crowded and its roads too congested now, imagine future generations: The nation's population could more than triple to 1 billion as early as 2100.

That's the eye-popping projection that urban and rural planners, gathered today for their annual meeting in Las Vegas, are hearing from a land-use expert.

"What do we do now to start preparing for that?" asks Arthur Nelson, co-director of the Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech, whose analysis projects that the USA will hit the 1 billion mark sometime between 2100 and 2120. "It's a realistic long-term challenge."

The nation currently has almost 304 million people and is the world's third most populous, behind China (1.3 billion) and India (1.1 billion). China passed the 1 billion mark in the early 1980s.

Nelson's projection assumes that current fertility rates remain constant but that longevity and immigration will continue to rise.

Jeff Soule, director of outreach for the American Planning Association, hopes it will be provocative enough to inspire planners who anticipate development patterns and infrastructure needs to look beyond their lifetimes and localities. "We have to be more aggressive about looking out at the long term," Soule says. "It may get people thinking beyond their jurisdictions. … It's clear we have to think about such issues as food, water and basic transportation infrastructure."

Nelson says China and India are accommodating billion-plus populations on less land area than the USA occupies.

"We have a surprising amount of space in existing urban areas," he says. "We can easily triple the population in our urbanized areas with much of that growth occurring on, of all things, parking lots."

Nelson advocates converting parking lots into commercial and residential buildings and extending light-rail lines and rapid transit to reduce dependence on cars.

"We could accommodate half or more of the new population (on parking lots)," he says. "For the other half, we need to figure out which parts of urban areas need to be redeveloped. We should start asking these larger questions now."

The population projection is provoking some skepticism.

Robert Lang, Nelson's co-director at the Virginia Tech institute, says he expects immigration to decline, largely because birth rates in other countries are declining.

"People are not going to have as many children, and their children won't have as many children, and there'll be (fewer) people to immigrate to the U.S.," Lang says. "I would rather focus on the near certainty that we will gain 100 million people by 2043. … No one plans for 100 years from now except to preserve a national park."

Population projections for most countries do not extend much beyond 2050. Carl Haub, senior demographer at the non-profit Population Reference Bureau, has estimated that India's population could reach 2 billion around 2075. That won't happen, however, if India's fertility rates decline at a faster rate than they have been, he says.

Nelson, who will become the founding director of the Center for the New Metropolis at the University of Utah this fall, says many events from disease to famine could throw his projections off course.

"We could certainly have a comet hit the planet and pulverize the atmosphere," he says. "But what if none of these things happen? … Do we plan on a calamity, do we assume that half the population's planet might be wiped out? I don't think that's very responsible."

http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/cen ... titialskip

Yes, indeed.

And what the article above does not allude to, is the fact that the basic ability for our biologically-based systems to sustain populations that large (eg. the 'carrying capacity'), is not a certain prospect. In fact, based on what I know about the subject and what I see happening today, I'd bet against it.

We have TODAY (just in the US alone):

* Regular shortages of water in arid and semi-arid areas
* Big problems of air pollution and the occurrence of respiratory problems
* Huge inefficiencies (and more pollution) generated from traffic congestion
* Constantly loosing suburban farmlands (often conveniently located to large cities, and on productive soils) to greater residential development
* And, did I hear echoes of global food supply concerns lately (eg. rice, and secondarily corn, wheat, etc? - Oh yes I did)
* (etc)

How does adding more human bodies help solve any of the problems above???

Sierra Club, what's your stand???

Update/Edit: And then we could talk of the impending environmental disasters which are underway in parts of Asia, Africa, South America, etc.

Did you know the desertification of the Gobi desert has reached such serious a state, that the blowing sands of the Gobi are within 15 miles of the outskirts of Beijing? Speaking of China, heard about the air quality in cities like Beijing or other industrial cities there? (It's bad and getting worse very quickly - as the Chinese use primarily coal to generate electricity - for it's 1.5+ billion people, well most of them...)

Know about the Aral Sea in Kazahkstan - and how it has shrunk over the last couple decades (due to overuse and altering flow of replenishing sources)?

Nelson says China and India are accommodating billion-plus populations on less land area than the USA occupies.

What's your point? The quality of life in China and India doesn't compare to that of the United States (not even close).



Calcutta, India



New Delhi, India



Communist China Village



Communist China crowded street

Good one MW. I noticed that point too, but you found the appropriate visuals to respond before acted on it. (Thanks)

Thanks "MW" all I can say is I am glad I won't be here and I pray there is no such thing as reincarnation!

Do we the American people have any say in this?!

PhredE wrote:

Good one MW. I noticed that point too, but you found the appropriate visuals to respond before acted on it. (Thanks)

SOSADFORUS wrote:

Thanks "MW" all I can say is I am glad I won't be here and I pray there is no such thing as reincarnation!

My pleasure.