U.S. population estimates vary based on immgrants

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U.S. population estimates vary based on immgrants

Posted 6m ago
By Haya El Nasser, USA TODAY

The U.S. population could be as high as 312.7 million and as low as 305.7 million, depending on the number of immigrants in the country, according to Census Bureau estimates released Monday.

The five estimates — based on Census surveys and administrative records such as births, deaths and immigration — come about three weeks before the official 2010 Census numbers are released and raise the possibility that the nation has fewer people than had been estimated.

"This is independent of the Census," said Census Director Robert Groves. "It gives us another measure of the April 1 population."

Estimates such as those released Monday are traditionally used as a yardstick to measure how accurate the official Census is. It's the first time the agency has put out five wide-ranging estimates — a reflection of the churn in immigration patterns this decade caused by the recession and crackdowns on illegal immigrants.


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"Immigration is the key," says John Long, who headed the Census population division in 2000 and is a private consultant at USA Demography.

The 2000 Census put the nation's population at 281.4 million.

The 2010 Census being unveiled this month is the official count that will be used to apportion seats in the House of Representatives among the 50 states. Texas could gain four seats and Florida two while Ohio and New York could lose two seats, according to an analysis by the Election Data Services consulting firm.

For the first time, the estimates made public Monday include information on Hispanics under the age of 20. They show how crucial they have been to the growth in the youth population, says Kenneth Johnson, demographer at the University of New Hampshire's Carsey Institute.

On April 1, Hispanics represented 21.8% to 25% of the U.S. population under age 20, compared with 17% in 2000, according to the estimates.

Under any scenario, "Hispanic young people accounted for all the growth in the youth population since 2000," Johnson says. "The U.S. population is becoming more diverse from youngest to oldest and Hispanics are the driving force behind this youth diversity."

http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/cen ... ates_N.htm

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