Early Polls are Warning Shot Across GOP Bow
Posted by Bobby Eberle
March 3, 2006 at 7:16 am
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It’s March in America, and college basketball will give us the excitement of March Madness. In politics, we have our own form of craziness: polls and pundits making early predictions on the outcome of the November elections. So far, the picture does not bode well for Republicans, but rather than be discouraged, these early indicators should serve as a wake-up call to get our act together and take a strong conservative message to the American people.
As noted in Dems Poised to Win US House, Bipartisan Poll Reveals, two prominent pollsters are saying that “Democrats appear poised this year to win back seats in Congress.”
The two pollsters — Democrat Celinda Lake and Republican Ed Goeas — conduct the noted Battleground Poll. Goeas, as quoted in the news report, noted that if the current political environment continues “you have to assume [the election] will tip for the Democrats” and they will win control of the U.S. House.
Celinda Lake added, “[Voters] continue to be very dissatisfied with the government and that sets the stage for change.”
According to the latest Battleground Poll:
46 percent said they would vote for the Democratic candidate for Congress from their district, while 40 percent said they would vote for the Republican. There was a 3 percent margin of error.
Congressional job approval was also fairly low, with 56 percent of voters expressing their disapproval. More voters believe that the Democrats in Congress will be better at solving the biggest problems facing the U.S. than Republicans.
Goeas notes in his analysis of the poll that the mood of the country does not appear to be anti-Republican or anti-Democrat, but rather, anti-Washington. The problem, of course, is that Republicans control the House, Senate, and White House, so if there is an anti-Washington mood, it is not a good situation for Republicans.
My feeling, and it is echoed by Celinda Lake, is that the political climate is similar to that of 1994 when Republicans ran on a reformist message — the Contract with America — and had tremendous electoral results. No one predicted the gains Republicans would make that year. Now, the Democrats are poised to return the favor by labeling Republicans as immersed in a “culture of corruption” with the Democrats somehow being the party of purity. That’s a laughable comparison, a classic “pot calling the kettle black,” but in this case the “culture of corruption” label has stuck to some extent, and it’s up to Republicans to shake it off.
The Republicans do have one important asset on their side: the conservative message. Yes, there are similarities between 1994 and today regarding voter disapproval of Washington, but there are also important differences. In 1994, the Republicans ran on a positive message. They took a platform of ideas to the American people and said, “This is what we are going to run on, and this is the type of legislation you will get from us.” Positive ideas, real reform, and a great message strategy translated into historic GOP gains.
In 2006, the situation is different. Despite the struggles of the GOP, the Democrats have absolutely no message or original ideas. In the 2004 presidential election, Sen. John Kerry blasted president Bush on Iraq, yet offered no plan of his own. The Democrats criticized efforts to reform Social Security, but in all their criticism, they offered no positive ideas. They are a party devoid of innovation and out-of-the-box thinking. Despite their efforts to use colorful terms such as progressives, moderates, new Democrats, and on and on, they are still, at heart, a collection of left-wing liberals.
So, the Republican Party has a chance in November. The warnings are there, and the mood of the American people is clear. It’s up to us as the party of conservative thought to right the ship now and steer it on a course that will inspire America. It’s not too late, but we can’t just sit back this time and wait for the Democrats to implode. We must be proactive. We must stand strong for conservative principles and send a message to the American people that will reaffirm their faith in Republican leadership.
No one likes to look like a fool. Over the past decade and more, the American people made a clear choice. They said, “We want Republicans to lead.” This is evident in the number of governorships, and the legislative and executive control Republicans have in Washington. It’s up to Republicans now to show the American people that they made a good choice. If we heed the warning signs, I know we can do it.
http://www.gopusa.com/theloft/?p=229
