Thread: At 104 degrees, the forecast is death

At 104 degrees, the forecast is death
A plan to warn illegal immigrants when the desert turns deadliest stirs controversy at the Arizona border

By Michael Martinez
Tribune national correspondent
Published March 18, 2007


TUCSON, Ariz. -- A controversial new initiative by an Arizona doctor would actually predict, like a weather report, the likelihood of a death among immigrants illegally crossing the border from Mexico when the desert heat hits this spring.

The season of triple-digit heat will be arriving soon, and Dr. Samuel Keim is ready for it, planning to roll out what state officials call a first-of-its-kind prognosticating report stating which days will have "a probability of death" for immigrants crossing the arid wasteland.

"By May, we will have an extreme heat warning based upon increasing probabilities that deaths will occur among border crossers," Keim said. "From four consecutive years of data, we have found that as the temperature on a given day reaches 104, the probability of death among the border crossers in [Pima] County reaches 50 percent."

Border deaths--and efforts to alleviate them, such as installing water stations--are fiercely debated in a state that has become the nation's busiest area for smuggling illegal immigrants. Even getting an accurate toll is contentious, as a federal audit recently criticized how the Border Patrol could be undercounting border deaths, which doubled over 10 years to 472 in 2005, mostly in Arizona.



Deaths may be understated

The Government Accountability Office found that the different methods of data collection among Border Patrol sectors "may have resulted in . . . understating the number of deaths in some regions." For years, activists have charged that their higher counts were more comprehensive but were ignored by the Border Patrol.

Though some observers wonder whether Keim's chance-of-death forecast plan would dissuade anyone, Keim said the perennial body count has grown to "a public health concern."

"These people are dying on U.S. soil. This is a U.S. issue. It's not a Mexico issue. If 100 people died anywhere in a single county from exposure, I think it would make national news," said Keim, 46, an associate professor of emergency medicine at the University of Arizona.

"Whoever is willing to listen, if the temperature reaches a certain figure, we're going to say that there's this X, Y or Z risk for crossing the border," he added. "We're hoping it will provide a probability of death for the day so that people can say there is a 50-50 probability that at least one or more crossers will die if they cross the border."



`Aiding and abetting'

Barbara Coe, an activist who's conducted civilian patrols of the border in Arizona and elsewhere with the Minuteman Project, excoriated Keim's proposal as "criminal."

"That's called aiding and abetting," said Coe, also founder of the California Coalition for Immigration Reform. "Illegal aliens are criminals.

"Nobody wants anybody to die. I can tell you that the blood of these people [is] on the hands of the Mexican government . . . and corrupt U.S. politicians who welcome them to come to our country illegally," she said. "They can save their own lives by staying home."

State and local health officials support Keim's idea, especially as a hotter-than-normal summer is forecast this year. Longtime border area residents know how to avoid triple-digit heat and are more likely to be exposed to a thunderstorm or flood warning than a heat advisory, a Pima County health spokeswoman said. Migrants, however, come from all over Latin America and many may not know how deadly the Sonoran Desert can be, officials said.

The deaths have spurred other initiatives that have been criticized, such as church groups putting water stations in the desert, with tall flags for easy location. Routine temperatures of 120 degrees make it difficult for anyone to carry enough water for a journey of two days or more, officials said.



90 degrees and deadly

The chance that a border crosser will die of heat stroke is much greater than for a U.S. citizen, and Keim believes it is due to the illegal migrants' covert behavior, trying to avoid capture on very hot days, he said. In 2002 and 2003, a day in which an immigrant died in the desert was 21 times more likely to have been 90 degrees or more, according to a 2005 journal article by Keim, the Pima County Medical Examiner Bruce Parks and others.

"What's interesting is that the risk of death increased at what we as local citizens thought" were benign temperatures, the mid-90s, Keim said. "This isn't a function of increased volume of crossers. It's the increased risk."

Patti Woodcock, community relations manager of Pima County Health Department, supported Keim's initiative. "How do you not do something to try to stem the deaths?" she said.

Some, however, wondered if Keim's plan would work.

"I think anything that raises consciousness as to dangers is a good thing," said Raquel Rubio-Goldsmith, coordinator of Binational Migration Institute at the University of Arizona, which recently studied border deaths.

"But I don't know if it will make a difference," she added. "You have no idea of the determination of the people who come. It's astounding."

As the hot season approaches, the Border Patrol is stepping up its year-round Spanish public service announcements in Mexican and U.S. media under a campaign called "No mas cruces en la frontera," which translates to "no more crosses on the border."

"It's a very good idea," Border Patrol senior agent Jim Hawkins of Tucson said of Keim's plan. "I can't endorse what he's doing one way or another. I'm just saying we do the same thing" under the public announcements.

- - -

Taking temperatures, predicting fatalities

Overall, heat-related deaths in Arizona are rare for residents, but not for illegal immigrants. There has been a steady increase in immigrant deaths on the U.S.-Mexican border. (See chart.)

A forecast coming this spring and summer will determine the likelihood of a death on the border based on temperature. For example, when the mercury hits 104 degrees, there is an even chance that one crosser will die that day.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nati ... ?track=rss

This is why we need a wall with barbed wire at the top. No trespassers = no deaths. It also means no more Latino invaders destroying our cities and culture.

As the hot season approaches, the Border Patrol is stepping up its year-round Spanish public service announcements in Mexican and U.S. media under a campaign called "No mas cruces en la frontera," which translates to "no more crosses on the border."

Which translates to DO NOT ENTER! I would hope that they can understand the ad which is in English and Spanish. Americans do not encourage illegal aliens to come here. The Mexican government, which printed books on how to enter America illegally, should be held accountable for every death caused by crossing over the desert to enter America.

The Mexican government should be accountable for every single person that dies in the desert. If these people were not encouraged, they would still be alive.