Thread: Study: Improved economy draws illegal immigrant

7:54PM EDT October 25. 2012 - Want a sign that the economy is on the rebound? Illegal immigration from Mexico is starting to rise again, according to a new report.

Immigration from Mexico fell to historic lows during the worst years of the recession. After four decades that brought 12 million people from Mexico to the U.S., people started heading back home and continued doing so from 2007 to 2011.

It's impossible to pinpoint the exact number of people crossing the southwest border with Mexico, but the study by U.S. and Mexican researchers estimates that immigrants headed north in the first half of 2012 outnumbered those heading back for the first time since 2007.

"Illegal immigration is a market indicator," said Roy Beck, CEO of NumbersUSA, an Arlington, Va.-based think tank that advocates lower levels of legal and illegal immigration. "They all got gigantic networks of family and friends who are already here sending information back and forth. So this is basically another sign that the economy is picking up."

The report is a collaboration between the University of Southern California and El Colegio de la Frontera Norte in Tijuana, a Mexican government-sponsored research group. Researchers used interviews with people along the border and data from the U.S. and Mexico.

Jeffrey Passel, the senior demographer at the non-partisan Pew Hispanic Center who was not involved in the report, said the findings look legitimate. But he said the small increase in people coming from Mexico does not mean the United States is close to the massive influx of illegal immigrants seen recently. For example, in 2000, 770,000 Mexicans immigrated, legally and illegally, to the U.S. In 2010, that number fell to 140,000.

"Right now, we're in a period where Mexican migration to the U.S. is at very low levels," Passel said.

Roberto Suro, a public policy professor at USC and co-author of the report, said people cited the weakening economy and increased enforcement measures for returning to, or staying in, Mexico.

Beck said the renewed rise in illegal immigration is due partly to President Obama's immigration record. He said a new program that could allow up to 1.8 million illegal immigrants brought to the U.S. as children to have their deportations deferred sends a signal that the border remains open.

"The word has gone out that this administration is going to do all it can to keep you from having to leave the country," he said.

Ali Noorani, executive director of the National Immigration Forum, which supported Obama's deportation deferral program, pointed to the fact that Obama has set records for the number of people deported as proof that he's serious about enforcement.

Noorani said the renewed rise in illegal immigration simply shows that the country's legal immigration system remains broken.
"Now that our economy is recovering, the bigger question is: How is our immigration system going to serve a growing economy?" he said.

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Rio Grande Valley Border Patrol

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DHS/CBP in DC aren't currently answering their phone, or responding to email queries regarding end-of-year apprehension numbers.

Study: Undocumented Immigration From Mexico on the Rise

By Rosa Ramirez |10/25/2012

A slight bump in the flow of undocumented Mexican immigrants during the first half of 2012 appears to signal a rebound of someU.S. sectors that realy on low-skilled workers, according to a two-nation study.

The population of illegal immigrants has reached prerecession levels (11.7 million). That figure led the study’s authors to argue that laws such Arizona’s SB1070 that aim to expel undocumented immigrants by making it impossible for them to live and work in the U.S. had little impact.

In a way, the study reveals a simple fact: People will move where there is work. The latest federal jobs report shows that of the 114,000 jobs added in September, most were in health, transportation, and warehousing, sectors that employ minorities, including low-skilled legal and unauthorized immigrants.
Even a small increase in the need for Mexican labor “would prompt a positive response in the migration flows despite intensified enforcement efforts by the federal government, several states, and some local governments,” according to the study.

Despite three years of unemployment levels at 8 percent or higher, “the size of the Mexican migrant population has not shrunken.” Similarly, record levels of federal deportations and state immigration laws have not curbed undocumented immigration, the study found.

The data are in direct contrast to an April Pew Hispanic Center study that revealed that net migration from Mexico to the U.S. had fallen to zero or had even reversed.

“Mexican Migration Monitor” is a joint publication of the University of Southern California’s Tomás Rivera Policy Institute in Los Angeles and El Colegio de la Frontera Norte in Tijuana, Mexico. The study analyzed data from various sources, including unpublished data from the Border Survey of Mexican Migrants.
Key highlights of the report:

• While the construction industry has continued to shed jobs through 2012, opportunities have been increasing in the leisure and hospitality arenas.
• Mexican migrants still come to the U.S. primarily to work as low-skilled laborers.
• Immigrants deported from the interior of the country, such as those caught during workplace immigration raids, are likely to be have resided in the U.S. longer, often are heads of households, and are age 35 or older. People apprehended closer to the border often are younger and have been in the U.S. for a shorter length of time.
• Study: Undocumented Immigration From Mexico on the Rise - Yahoo! News