Thread: Anti-immigration-reform’s laid-back summer

Anti-immigration-reform’s laid-back summer



Anti-immigration groups aren’t drawing large crowds to their rallies. | M.Scott Mahaskey/POLITICO

By ANNA PALMER | 8/20/13 5:00 PM EDT Updated: 8/21/13 6:20 AM EDT

Anti-immigration forces were so effective in 2007 that on the eve of a critical Senate vote they mobilized thousands of angry callers and shut down the Capitol switchboard — effectively killing the bill.

But this time around members of Congress are under much less pressure from the opposition, even as the pro-reform movement has kicked into high gear in the final weeks of the August recess before lawmakers return to the immigration debate in Washington.

Anti-immigration groups aren’t drawing large, loud crowds to their rallies — only about 60 people showed up to hear headliner Rep. Steve King in Richmond, Va., last week. And the tea party groups famous for turning out supporters and firing up town halls ahead of the 2010 midterm elections are much more focused on Obamacare than immigration.

(PHOTOS: Steve King speaks at tea party rally)

The anti-reformers say opposition is still alive and well. It’s just that conservatives feel little need to show their force, since they believe the GOP-controlled House would never accept the immigration bill passed by the Senate this spring.

And while many observers agree prospects for a big bill look unlikely in the House, momentum has been picking up in corners of the Republican Party. If pro-immigration forces can harness the softening Republican line, they just might breathe new life into their cause — leaving anti-reformers regretting not spending August on offense.

“The people on our side, right now, they aren’t all that terrified,” Roy Beck of the anti-immigration reform group NumbersUSA said. “The day after the Senate bill passed, the storyline in the media was this thing is dead on arrival at the House.

For six weeks almost all the media stuff they’ve been seeing is they are not going to let the Senate bill come forward. It’s very inside baseball about what Cantor and Boehner are up to. It’s not an in-your-face kind of threat for most people.”

(CARTOONS: Matt Wuerker on immigration)

But while the anti-immigration forces have lain low this summer, a number of conservatives have begun to change their line on the issue.

GOP Reps. Daniel Webster of Florida and Aaron Schock of Illinois said this month they support an eventual pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants. California Republicans like Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy are showing signs of support for at least some legal status for immigrants. And Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) is back making the case for an overhaul on conservative talk radio, which anti-reformers dominated for years.

So far, the megaphone over how to overhaul the country’s immigration laws this month has been pretty much one-sided, with pro-reformers organizing hundreds of rallies, putting operatives on the ground and making sure lawmakers are hearing from local leaders who support the effort.

Outside groups worried that anti-immigration reform activists would make a big push to persuade House Republicans to remain steadfastly opposed to an overhaul to the country’s immigration laws say their fears haven’t been borne out.

(WATCH: McConnell says immigration bill has ‘serious flaws’)

“We’ve got over 400 events taking place in August — we thought we would at least have some competition,” said Frank Sharry of the pro-reform group America’s Voice. “So far, we haven’t seen it.”

Numbers USA and the Federation for American Immigration Reform argue that the small Virginia rally isn’t reflective of the size or intensity of their movement.

“Rallies and demonstrations have never really been the cornerstone of the lobbying effort on our side,” said FAIR’s Ira Mehlman. “It’s more constituent pressure through the normal channels — phone calls, emails, those sort of things. … The street demonstrations are more the hallmark for people pushing amnesty than the people on our side.”

And the opposition hasn’t been entirely silent.

FAIR ran a television ad earlier this month attacking Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) for his involvement on immigration reform. And hundreds of tea party activists signed onto a letter to House Republicans just before the August recess urging them not to vote for the Senate package or for a bill that would go to conference with the Senate. And, the groups that participated in the Virginia rally have plans to hold events this month in several other places, including Harrisburg, Pa.; Dallas, Texas; and Toledo, Ohio.

“We’ve got millions of dollars we’re putting behind this,” Beck said. “Angry mobs aren’t showing up on either side. It’s a very calm August. As I’ve said over and over again, we’re on the side of trying to hold at least 118 Republicans. … They’ve got to change minds.”

And groups like Numbers USA boast that their numbers have only increased in size. In 2007, the group said it had 350,000 members. It now, says there are more than 1.4 million.

But the conservative activist landscape has changed with the emergence of the tea party since their last battle and the those groups continue to have a fervent focus on repealing Obamacare.

“I’m not going to pretend to say right now the grass roots — I think it’s pretty obvious people aren’t worked up anywhere near the groups are that are fighting Obamacare,” Beck said.

Many tea party groups aren’t weighing in on immigration at all, and for those that do it hasn’t emerged as a top-tier issue.

“As far as intensity on an issue our supporters are much more concerned about government over spending and the economy and Obamacare,” said Tea Party Patriots’ Jenny Beth Martin. “Those are our primary issues, so immigration and even reforming the IRS and Tax Code, those are secondary issues for us.”
And while tea party groups have continued to train their fire on Obamacare and government spending, many third party conservative groups are staying away from taking a position on immigration reform at all.

Club for Growth and Americans for Prosperity, for example, are two that are staying out of the fray.

AFP spokesman Levi Russell said the group made the decision a long time ago not to get involved in immigration reform.

“We stick to our issue areas of government spending, health care and energy,” Russell said. “A lot of folks are conflicted. I haven’t seen any real effort to organize support against it.”

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/0...#ixzz2ccWKt1pk

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