No, that's not correct. Arrests are way up, and from that they deduce that illegal crossings are way up because that's how BP measures and reports on border crossings. Whether that is right or not, we don't know. That's just how they've measured it for at least the 13 years I've been following it. There are no illegal border crossing counts, they sneak nt, they're hidden, there's no way for BP to actually know how many entered illegally, they only know how many they caught and from that use a 1 to 5 ratio to estimate how many may have entered illegally.
It could be that with the fence, more agents, more equipment, better surveillance, etc., etc., etc. they are just doing a better job of making arrests and arresting more people without any rise in the number of border crossings. They have more resources than they did years ago, they have a mandate from the President to get r done, they also have new management, so it's entirely plausible that Border Patrol is actually doing a better job and being more successful in their operations resulting in more arrests without any increase in border crossings. In fact, that's more plausible than the assumption that nothing changed or improved despite all these new actions, resources, management and directives from the President by using the same 1 arrest out of 5 border crossings method of measuring border crossings. That ratio should be adjusted.
Politically, Trump is seizing on the notion of a "surge" because that supports his effort to get troops to the border, money for the wall, interior enforcement, ending chain migration, eliminating the visa lottery and fixing the loopholes in the UAC and Asylum programs. So if you are trying to get more appropriations and legislation, you claim a "SURGE". If you're trying to pat yourself on the back, you claim 46 year low. Trump went middle ground and claimed the "SURGE" and the "UNACCEPTABLE" 46 year low, meaning even these low numbers are still too many because any is too many.
It was all very clear to me. The pundits are confused, though. He sent them on a whirly-bird trip.
:)