Thread: Immigration reform: Don’t count on it

Immigration reform: Don't count on it
Posted July 12, 2008 8:30 AM

by Paul West

News flash: Barack Obama and John McCain share an identical position on a matter of intense interest to voters--immigration--that is a symbol of Washington's failure to solve the nation's problems.

Does that mean something will finally get done about immigration when the new president takes over? Surprisingly, perhaps, the answer appears to be "No." And that might raise questions about exactly how much change the next president will deliver.

At the moment, Obama and McCain are intensifying their efforts to gain support from Latinos, whose votes have the power to decide the presidential election. Both candidates support a comprehensive overhaul of immigration law, an issue that remains stalemated at the national level.

Chants of "Si, se puede (yes, we can)" greeted Obama's pledge here the other day, to representatives of the nation's oldest Hispanic organization, that he'd "bring undocumented immigrants out of the shadows" and "avoid creating second-class servants in our midst."

When McCain promoted a plan to give millions of illegal immigrants a path to citizenship, it nearly cost him the Republican nomination. His rhetoric is more muted now. But he remains dedicated to dealing "practically and humanely" with those who are here illegally, he told the same Hispanic audience that Obama addressed.

The next round in their duel for Hispanic votes will come in separate speeches to the National Council of La Raza, which calls itself the largest Hispanic civil rights and advocacy organization, at its current convention in San Diego.

By itself, having a supporter of immigration reform in the White House means little. A weakened President Bush was no match for grassroots activists, whipped up by conservative talk radio, who blocked the attempt to push immigration reform through Congress in his second term.

According to those who track the issue, the key to breaking the stalemate is early action in the next president's tenure, when his influence will be greatest.


If Washington "is to take serious steps to resolve the current impasse, it is widely thought that the new president will have to move swiftly and creatively in the honeymoon period," David A. Martin, former general counsel of the Immigration and Naturalization Service, concluded in an analysis for the Miller Center of Public Affairs at the University of Virginia.

Obama says he'd make immigration "a top priority in my first year as president" and finish the job "by the end of my first term." McCain says he'll make another run at reform once he's proved that the borders are secure.

But outside analysts say odds of action in 2009 have dimmed. For many voters, dealing with a faltering economy is far more important than fixing immigration.

"The next president will be called upon to focus early and intensely on the problems of the economy and the associated problems of energy and perhaps health care," said Bill Galston, a domestic policy adviser in the Clinton White House, now at the Brookings Institution. "Whether there would be space in the legislative agenda early on for an all-out assault on the immigration problems strikes me as a dicey proposition at best."

Like others, Galston believes that, at some point, the next president--whether it is Obama or McCain--will make "a serious run at immigration reform. There are all sorts of forces dissatisfied with the status quo."

Logic might argue that a Democratic Congress and a Democratic president would have a better chance of getting something done. But logic does not always explain how things work inside the Beltway.

Mark Krikorian, author of "The New Case Against Immigration, Both Legal and Illegal," points out that some of the Democrats who replaced Republicans in the 2006 election opposed the immigration measure co-sponsored by McCain and Democratic Sen. Edward M. Kennedy of Massachusetts. It is too early to know how the Class of '08 will come down on the issue, but the "anti" forces that successfully blocked action last year will be back to pressure Congress, no matter who's in charge.

Krikorian is no admirer of McCain--he's called him "weasely" and "terrible on immigration"--but thinks the Republican may be more committed to reform than Obama.
For McCain, the fight "is now personal," he says. "He wants revenge on the Republican Party for having stopped him last year, so he's much more likely to expend political capital when the going gets rough in Congress."

A President Obama, he adds, might not fight as hard for reform but would be less likely than McCain to put hardliners into top border and immigration enforcement positions at the Departments of Homeland Security and Justice.

Immigration, a hot topic in the primaries, especially for Republicans, wasn't expected to be part of the general election debate, since the candidates agree on the issue. But that appears to be changing.

Obama, in his speech to the Hispanic audience in Washington, accused McCain of abandoning his "courageous stance" on immigration when it became politically unpopular. The attack on his reputation may have gotten under McCain's skin.
"McCain is an honor politician, and he considers that kind of charge an attack on his honor that he has to defend," says Krikorian.

As if on cue, the McCain campaign is airing a new ad this weekend in three swing states where Hispanics could hold the balance of power--Colorado, New Mexico and Arizona. It features footage of McCain defending his immigration stance during a Republican primary debate.

In the ad, McCain praises the patriotism of Hispanic members of the armed services and points out that even those who are in this country illegally are "God's children. They must come into our country legally, but they have enriched our culture and our nation as every generation of immigrants before them."
http://oneoldvet.com/?p=7197
http://www.swamppolitics.com/news/polit ... count.html

Regarding God’s Children:
Those opposed to illegal immigration have never — ever— discounted the contributions of Hispanic citizens and legal residents to the welfare of America, especially not their long history of service to this nation in the armed forces. What McCain does is mix up and obfuscate legal and illegal immigrants. The issue is that is the problem is illegal immigration and border security, not whether we know that Americans of Hispanic descent have risked and given their lives for us in service to America.

At the moment, Obama and McCain are intensifying their efforts to gain support from Latinos, whose votes have the power to decide the presidential election. Both candidates support a comprehensive overhaul of immigration law, an issue that remains stalemated at the national level.

These two morons are traveling around this country and in mexico promising the illegal invaders they are going to get amnesty.

Amnesty is never going to happen and when it doesn't, the illegal invaders are going to riot in the streets, demanding their amnesty because they will claim they were mislead and lied to.

Have either McCain or Obama thought about the harm their pandering to these people might cause this country when their promises being made never come to fruition?

It could to get ugly...

Originally Posted by NoBueno

At the moment, Obama and McCain are intensifying their efforts to gain support from Latinos, whose votes have the power to decide the presidential election. Both candidates support a comprehensive overhaul of immigration law, an issue that remains stalemated at the national level.

These two morons are traveling around this country and in mexico promising the illegal invaders they are going to get amnesty.

Amnesty is never going to happen and when it doesn't, the illegal invaders are going to riot in the streets, demanding their amnesty because they will claim they were mislead and lied to.

Have either McCain or Obama thought about the harm their pandering to these people might cause this country when their promises being made never come to fruition?

It could to get ugly...

You're right NoBueno and they will have no one to thank but themselves.

The more they pander to illegal aliens lovers, the more AMERICANS become aware of what's been going on, which is good. Americans overwhelmingly oppose any amnesty for lawbreakers. Previous amnesties have failed and put us in this position, it's time to ENFORCE the LAW!

Legal is Great , thats what America is about . ILLEGAL = No Amnesty . You have NO right to step infront of others and the worst part is you illegals broke laws . Many different laws to get here and Whine your way to the top of the food chain . Boo on you . Never happen

According to those who track the issue, the key to breaking the stalemate is early action in the next president's tenure, when his influence will be greatest.

This is when we're going to have to be on highest alert -- to stop any mass amnesty attempts during the honeymoon phase of a new presidency.

Also, in a way this further shows how bogus McCain's rhetoric is that he will secure the border first. During one of his recent pandering fests, he admitted that amnesty would be a or "the" top priority during his first 100 days. Well, there is no way our border could be truly secured during the first part of 2009.

I agree with Krikorian. To McCain, amnesty is personal.

Zeezil wrote:

What McCain does is mix up and obfuscate legal and illegal immigrants.

He's got a lot of company on that count. Every illegal immigrant advocate is playing that game, including La Raza, LULAC, Obama, the MSM, MALDEF, MECHA, etc.