Thread: If the housing boom goes bust, so do illegal workers

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/edi ... 95552.html

Aug. 4, 2006, 6:42PM
If the housing boom goes bust, so do illegal workers
What do we do with those here illegally, unemployed?

By MARIA FOTOPOULOS

ONE of the effects of the housing boom that has followed the dot-com bust of 2000 has been to draw hundreds of thousands of illegal workers to the United States. What will happen to this large illegal work force if the building boom busts?

Before answering this, the first question to address is whether or not a bust is likely. Many believe the tremendous building expansion is yet another bubble creation like the dot-com era — another illusion of wealth — but with larger implications because of the greater leverage involved.

On a recent trip to the Phoenix area, I could only wonder where so much water and energy were coming from to supply the myriad new subdivisions and roads that have risen — and are continuing to rise in the desert — since visiting five years ago. (I wondered too where all the people were coming from to fill the houses.) The signs of massive housing developments are just as evident driving across I-10 into California, where real estate now represents a staggering 25 percent of the value of all U.S. housing. Through the desert cities of the Palm Springs area, large acreages lining the interstate were being readied for building behind green canvas fencing. But that's just an anecdotal view.

The current economic advance has been fed by the fast-food of debt — super-size. Debt has grown faster than at any time in history. Since 2001, federal debt has increased 53 percent, with the debt limit increased in 2006, the third time in the last four years.

On an individual level, consumer debt (excluding mortgages) averages $11,669 per person currently, up 12.5 percent from 2005. Median mortgage debt, meantime, has more than doubled from $46,900 to $96,000 in the period from 1989 to 2004. In the first half of this year, 90 percent of homeowners refinancing took cash out, versus 2003 when only 20 percent did.

Housing has been a major component of this debt creation.

Governments — unless Bono is around to intervene for forgiveness — and individuals alike have to pay off their debts. In the current economy, with the average consumer spending more than he or she earns, the risk of debt not being repaid is high when lending standards have been so weakened through creative financing, including adjustable rate mortgages and interest-only loans, that previously unqualified buyers are in the game.

This softening in standards, coupled with low interest, has created a housing market rife with speculation.

The illusion of wealth-awaiting-the-taking that has been conjured beckons immigrants legal and illegal — the threat of tougher border enforcement notwithstanding. Illegal immigration has continued to rise dramatically in recent years. As of March 2006, the Pew Hispanic Center, a nonpartisan research center, estimated that the illegal population in the United States is between 11.5 million and 12 million. Of this population, approximately 7.2 million are in the work force.

With housing being the biggest jobs driver in the post-dot-com boom, it's not surprising that 20 percent of the 7.2 million illegal work force is laboring in construction and related building jobs. In some specific construction trades, illegal workers account for large percentages of the work force.

For instance, according to Pew, 36 percent of all insulation workers are estimated to be illegal, as are 29 percent of roofers and 28 percent of drywall and ceiling tile installers.

But now the housing sector may be losing traction, as evidenced by growing inventories of homes and declining mortgage applications. There's potential to see an unprecedented and ugly bust that would result in large job losses. A bust most certainly would have an impact on the employment status of the estimated 1 million illegal immigrants working in construction in the country.

These are some of the very illegal workers that government officials would like to offer a path to citizenship.

To address the earlier question, if the boom busts, there will be a large illegal work force unemployed and, by extension for those with spouses and children here, more illegal dependents without a primary provider. The effects of unemployment will reverberate throughout the economy. New jobs will be difficult to come by; and there will be greater demand on social services.

Under proposed Senate legislation, large numbers of these unemployed workers could become citizens, further burdening the country. This potential scenario is courtesy of what appears to be a manufactured pretense of prosperity.

Fotopoulos is a senior writing fellow for Californians for Population Stabilization, (www.capsweb.org).

I need Pat's sarcasim emoticon to preface this but use your imagine please and ty.

What will happen to this large illegal work force if the building boom busts?

The government will provide them with job training for a new field.

BAD XANA BAD

Originally Posted by MARIA FOTOPOULOS

What will happen to this large illegal work force if the building boom busts?

Well, Maria, if you would read this website you'd know the answer. Illegals will do what they do best - what most Americans won't do!

Larceny
Rapes
Murders
Home Invasions
Car-jackings
Drug dealing
Identity theft
Counterfeiting

Spend some time on this ALIPAC website, Maria - find out what's really going on!

Originally Posted by xanadu

The government will provide them with job training for a new field.

Yes indeed, they'll be well rewarded while Americans stand in the unemployment lines.

Well the housing market has already slowed down in California. We have an over supply of houses on the market that are not selling very quickly.

Also I noticed a K&B developement in the area doesn't seem to be in any hurry to build new homes either. They quickly put up some models but other building of new homes has seemed to stop.

And we're now getting illegals in NC who are coming from CA because of the job shortages there.

Wonder where they'll go once they overrun the illegal job market here?