Mapped: how much immigration your area will see by 2024 – and six things you should know about it





Asa Bennett Laurence Dodds 26 MAY 2016 • 4:35PM


Immigration has been a subject of fierce controversy during the referendum campaign, and now we have a slew of official figures about how much is happening.

First, the ONS has released estimates of England's population in 2024, depicting how much it will grow or fall in every single English local authority and how much of it will be due to immigration.

Second, we've got data about how many people came into Britain as a whole during the past year – the last time we'll get such figures before the referendum on June 24.

Together, they paint a picture of how Britain is changing right now and how it could change over the next ten years.

We've made this map to show you how much the population of your area will change and why. And below, we've drawn out six key points from the ONS data which will help you understand the future of immigration to Britain.

1. Future immigration will be high

The change predicted by the ONS is large. Between 2t014 and 2014, England's population is expected to increase by 4.1 million – about as many people as we gained in the previous decade.

By 2039, the population of England alone will be larger than the population of the whole UK in 2011, while London will already have become a "megacity" (defined as more than 10 million people) some time between 2017 and 2018.

Almost half of this rise will come from from international migration. The rest comes from "natural change", meaning the differences between births and deaths.

It's hard to extrapolate from this what that will actually mean for British demographics. These numbers say nothing about race, ethnicity, culture, religion, or all the other thorny things which are often bound up with debates around immigration. Moreover, "natural change"includes children born in Britain to first-generation immigrants.

What we can say is that immigration will continue to be a significant driver of population growth.

2. Immigration will be HIGHLY concentrated

Here's a graph showing how different regions will gain and lose population. Notice anything?

In raw numerical terms a huge amount of England's immigration will be to London, accounting for 50 per cent of its growth. In the South East and the South West it is under 30 per cent.

That is balanced out by the many people who will leave London, with the East, South East, and especially the South West being the beneficiaries.

Some people will immediately link that to the ongoing debate about "white flight" from London. But we should be wary of drawing such inferences. First, again, these numbers say nothing about race. And second, people are continuously leaving London, for all kinds of reasons, mostly to do with getting older, richer, and more interested in settling down.

Interestingly, the pattern elsewhere does not strictly map to urban centres. But it is very concentrated. Population growth form net international migration in London will make up about a third of England's total, while no other area will have more than a tenth.


In fact, only 24 out of 326 areas will have more than 10 per cent growth from immigration. And although the borough with the most is Newham, at 32 per cent, the median amount is only 1.2 per cent.

In short: almost all of England's population growth from international migration will be concentrated in just a handful of local authorities.

3. Net migration is stable – for now

Now let's look at what's going on right now. The ONS says that 330,000 more people arrived than left Britain in 2015 – what they call "net long-term international migration". That number has been broadly stable since last year.

Crucially, these figures do not include migrants who come to Britain for less than a year – a fact which caused controversy earlier this month. Still, they are broadly accepted as a good measure of long-term migration.

Moreover, they are what David Cameron was referring to when he promised to cut net migration into "the tens of thousands".

Much of this growth is actually due to falling emigration. The ONS thinks slightly fewer people have arrived in Britain since the previous year, but a drop in the number who are leaving has kept net migration high.

4. Only half of it is from the EU

These migrants have mostly come from outside of the European Union, but only just. Of an estimated 630,000 people coming into the country, 277,000 came from outside the EU, while 270,000 came from within. The other 83,000 were actually returning Brits.

It's clear to see how both the raw number and the proportion of EU migrants has increased since 2012, when Britain's economy was in the doldrums. Since then, we've outpaced many European nations – and research indicates most EU migrants come here for jobs.

This presents a bit of a pickle for the EU referendum. Leavers say we can more easily control our immigration levels if we leave the EU. That is obviously true. But currently, Britain is not significantly reducing the numbers it can control.

5. Some places are losing their youth

International immigration isn't the only trend Britain has to get to grips with, as citizens are able to move around the country as part of "internal migration".

This means young working-age Britons may move to more lucrative parts of the country, like London, and abandon where they used to live. Meanwhile, older citizens move out of cities to settle in the green belt.

For some areas, that could be a problem. Look at the statistics below for the north of England, especially the North East. Many of these regions are predicted to actually lose population to internal migration. You can see how working-age populations will stagnate or even fall – perhaps a sign that professionals are moving away for better prospects in the South. . Meanwhile, the population of over-65s will continue to rise.


The result? Steadily greying populations, with greater health requirements, and a slow drain in people who can generate the tax to pay for it all.

This feeds into a wider trend across the country as the effects of increased life expectancy come to bear. Over-65s are expected to be the fastest-growing age-group by far in all regions of England, with increases over 20 per cent in most areas. The long term projections also show the number of people over the age of 90 in England passing 500,000 next year and reaching one million between 2033 and 2034.

So Britain's population is set to grow in size, age and be increasingly found down in the South.

6. What does this mean for the referendum?

Immigration is a political gift to Brexiteers as they make their case for why Britain should leave the European Union, with polls regularly showing that they are more trusted than Europhiles on this issue.

The latest immigration figures will consolidate their mastery. These are the last numbers to come out before the referendum, and David Cameron is nowhere near meeting his "no ifs, no buts" cap of 100,000 on net migration.

Still, this won't be enough to seal the deal, because Remainers prefer to fight over which option is best for the economy in the referendum. Brexiteers argue that immigration is inherently linked, as an excessive rate strains public services, and deprives native Britons of jobs.

But if the public believes it's a straight choice between "less immigration" and "a bigger economy", they'll probably choose the latter. Most voters rank the economy as a more important issue than immigration, and polls suggest that Remain is more trusted on the issue. Leave will not be able to rely on worries about immigration if they want to take a majority of voters with them on June 23.

Mapped: how much immigration your area will see by 2024 ? and six things you should know about it