Control of U.S. Senate could be decided in California
Control of U.S. Senate could be decided in California
By San Jose Mercury News san Jose Mercury News –
Tue Oct 26, 11:51 am ET
Mike Zapler, mzapler@mercurynews.com
WASHINGTON -- When voters choose between Barbara Boxer and Carly Fiorina in California's hard-fought Senate race Nov. 2,
they may also be deciding control of the entire U.S. Senate.
The contest between the three-term Democratic incumbent and the Republican former Hewlett-Packard CEO
is shaping up as one of a small handful of races around the country that will determine whether Democrats retain
power in the Senate or cede it to Republicans, three election handicappers told the Mercury News.
More 2010 elections coverage.
While Republicans are widely expected to win the House, it's a much taller order in the Senate, where there are 41 Republicans
compared with a Democratic caucus of 59 (57 Democrats and two independents).
GOP candidates would have to hold all of their current seats (likely) and then win 10 seats now held by Democrats.
Election handicappers are predicting GOP gains of six to nine seats; to get to 10, Republicans would have to take almost every competitive race.
It would mean knocking off Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada, claiming Barack Obama's former Senate seat in Illinois
and nabbing the West Virginia seat held by the late Democratic Sen. Robert Byrd for more than five decades.
Assuming all that happens, and then some, the prospects for a Republican takeover would come down to victory in one of
two liberal strongholds, Washington or California. Both are represented by Democratic women elected in 1992 --
the so-called Year of the Woman -- running against Republican former business executives.
In Washington, Sen. Patty Murray has maintained a small but steady lead on Republican Dino Rossi in recent polls.
The same is true of Boxer, who is running slightly ahead of Fiorina. Neither incumbent, however, is a lock for re-election.
Will the GOP wave reach the Left Coast? Anything is possible in this most unpredictable of election years.
"The problem with a wave election is you have no idea how big it is until it lands," said Jennifer Duffy, senior editor
of the Cook Political Report, which predicts Republicans will gain seven to nine seats and rates the Boxer-Fiorina contest
a tossup. "If Fiorina wins in California, it's clearly a big wave."
Elections expert Larry Sabato's "Crystal Ball" politics website has Republicans falling one or two seats short
of a Senate takeover. However, he -- like other prognosticators -- is hedging his bets.
One historical nugget that gives him pause: Since the 1940s, each of the six times that control of the House
has changed parties, the Senate has switched in the same election.
"Five of the six times, people thought (beforehand) that the House would switch but not the Senate," said Sabato,
director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics. "If there's a surprise on election night, that's where it will be."
The prospect of a GOP Senate takeover has been a boon to Fiorina. National Republicans have sent almost $5 million
to her campaign, narrowing Boxer's fundraising advantage and keeping Fiorina competitive in the all-important
arena of TV advertising in the campaign's final weeks.
It shows "not only the importance of this race but also the viability of Carly," campaign spokeswoman Andrea Saul said.
The Boxer campaign did not dispute that. The fact that outside groups, including the U.S. Chamber of Commerce
and the National Republican Senatorial Committee, are spending millions to help Fiorina proves the importance of the race to Republicans.
"They want to invest where they think they can win," Boxer's campaign manager, Rose Kapolczynski, said.
"Right now, we're ahead, but not by enough to deter outside groups from getting involved here. "...
Fiorina is a credible candidate, and we always knew this would be a tough race and she has been right on our heels."
Of the election experts interviewed by the Mercury News, Duffy of the Cook Political Report gives the first-time
candidate the best odds of taking out Boxer.
The Democrat is "sitting in the mid-40s (in polling), which is not a very healthy place for an incumbent to be,"
Duffy said. "She hasn't quite closed this deal. As long as Fiorina is still on TV and at some parity, this is still a race."
But Sabato and the Rothenberg Political Report both rate the California race "lean Democrat" and believe Republicans
have a better shot in Washington state. Nathan Gonzales, the Rothenberg political editor, said Fiorina "is in the game
with two weeks to go, which is not insignificant in a state like California." But he still favors Boxer to win because
of "the Democratic nature" of the state.
And without California, the GOP odds of winning the Senate are that much longer.
"There are so many variables and all of the pieces have to fit just right for the Republicans to do it," Sabato said. "Usually, that doesn't happen."
Contact Mike Zapler at 202-662-8921
CAN GOP WIN 10 SEATS?
For the Republicans to win control of the Senate, they would need to keep all of the seats they now have and
take away 10 seats currently held by Democrats. Difficult? Definitely. Impossible? Perhaps not. Here's a
look at the 12 potential pickups for the GOP, along with the Rothenberg Political Report's most recent rating of each race:
Arkansas: Blanche Lincoln* (D) vs. John Boozman (R): Republican favored
California: Barbara Boxer* (D) vs. Carly Fiorina (R): Lean Democrat
Colorado: Michael Bennet* (D) vs. Ken Buck (R): Pure tossup
Connecticut: Richard Blumenthal (D) vs. Linda McMahon (R): Lean Democrat
Illinois: Alexi Giannoulias (D) vs. Mark Kirk (R): Tossup/Tilt Republican
Indiana: Brad Ellsworth (D) vs. Dan Coats (R): Republican favored
Nevada: Harry Reid* (D) vs. Sharron Angle (R): Pure tossup
North Dakota: Tracy Potter (D) vs. John Hoeven (R): Safe Republican
Pennsylvania: Joe Sestak (D) vs. Pat Toomey (R): Tossup/Tilt Republican
Washington: Patty Murray* (D) vs. Dino Rossi (R): Tossup/Tilt Democrat
West Virginia: Joe Manchin (D) vs. John Raese (R): Pure tossup
Wisconsin: Russ Feingold* (D) vs. Ron Johnson (R): Lean Republican
*Incumbent
Source: Rothenberg Political Report
mercurynews.com/
http://www.mercurynews.com/elections/ci ... source=rss
Re: Control of U.S. Senate could be decided in California
Quote:
Colorado: Michael Bennet* (D) vs. Ken Buck (R): Pure tossup
Nevada: Harry Reid* (D) vs. Sharron Angle (R): Pure tossup
West Virginia: Joe Manchin (D) vs. John Raese (R): Pure tossup
Another liberal slanted story, in all of these races the Republican has had a lead in 4 out of 5 polls for many months, they should be tilt Republican.
In fact now in West Virginia:
____________________________
Wednesday, October 20, 2010
Republican John Raese has now opened up a seven-point lead over West Virginia Governor Joe Manchin in perhaps the most improbably close U.S. Senate contest in the country. It’s Raese’s biggest lead yet.
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely West Virginia Voters finds Raese with 50% support to Manchin’s 43%. Two percent (2%) like some other candidate in the race, and five percent (5%) are undecided.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... l_election
_____________________________________________
So that means the races are actually:
Arkansas: Blanche Lincoln* (D) vs. John Boozman (R): Republican favored
California: Barbara Boxer* (D) vs. Carly Fiorina (R): Tossup/Tilt Democrat
Colorado: Michael Bennet* (D) vs. Ken Buck (R): Tossup/Tilt Republican
Connecticut: Richard Blumenthal (D) vs. Linda McMahon (R): Lean Democrat
Illinois: Alexi Giannoulias (D) vs. Mark Kirk (R): Tossup/Tilt Republican
Indiana: Brad Ellsworth (D) vs. Dan Coats (R): Republican favored
Nevada: Harry Reid* (D) vs. Sharron Angle (R): Tossup/Tilt Republican
North Dakota: Tracy Potter (D) vs. John Hoeven (R): Safe Republican
Pennsylvania: Joe Sestak (D) vs. Pat Toomey (R): Tossup/Tilt Republican
Washington: Patty Murray* (D) vs. Dino Rossi (R): Tossup/Tilt Democrat
West Virginia: Joe Manchin (D) vs. John Raese (R): Lean Republican
Wisconsin: Russ Feingold* (D) vs. Ron Johnson (R): Lean Republican
There are five Safe/Lean Republican /favored,
and four Tossup/Tilt Republican, for a total of 9 likely Republican pickups if there is no voter fraud/illegals voting.
Then there are the two Tossup/Tilt Democrat, California and Washington, winning one or both of them would give the Senate to Republicans, and our hero Jeff Sessions would be in charge of immigration policy/bills!!!
And that is exactly why I am voting Carly Fiorina for Senate, I am not actually that fond of her, in essence I am voting for Jeff Sessions.
