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  1. #1
    Senior Member carolinamtnwoman's Avatar
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    Why America's new baby boom bodes well for our future

    400 Million People Can’t Be Wrong
    Why America's new baby boom bodes well for our future.


    By Joel Kotkin
    NEWSWEEK
    Apr 16, 2010
    From the magazine issue dated Apr 26, 2010


    As the nonstop TV commercials have made clear, the U.S. Census Bureau really hopes you've sent back your questionnaire by now. But in reality, we don't have to wait for the census results to get a basic picture of America's demographic future. The operative word is "more": by 2050, about 100 million more people will inhabit this vast country, bringing the total U.S. population to more than 400 million.

    With a fertility rate 50 percent higher than Russia, Germany, or Japan, and well above that of China, Italy, Singapore, South Korea, and virtually all of Eastern Europe, the United States has become an outlier among its traditional competitors, all of whose populations are stagnant and seem destined to eventually decline. Thirty years ago, Russia constituted the core of a vast Soviet empire that was considerably more populous than the United States. Today, Russia's low birthrate and high mortality rate suggest that its population will drop by 30 percent by 2050, to less than one third that of the United States. Even Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has spoken of "the serious threat of turning into a decaying nation."

    Perhaps an even more important demographic gap is emerging between the United States and East Asia. Over the past few decades a rapid expansion of their workforce fueled the rise of the East Asian tigers, the great economic success story of our epoch. Yet within the next four decades, a third or more of their populations will be older than 65, compared with only a fifth in America. By 2050, according to the United Nations, roughly 30 percent of China's population will be more than 60 years old. Lacking a developed social-security system, China's rapid aging will start cutting deep into the country's savings and per capita income rates. A slowdown of population growth in poor countries can offer a short-term economic and environmental benefit. But in advanced countries, a rapidly aging or decreasing population does not bode well for societal or economic health.

    Between 2000 and 2050 the U.S. population aged 15 to 64—the key working and school-age group—will grow 42 percent, while the same group will decline by 10 percent in China, nearly 25 percent in Europe, and 44 percent in Japan. Unlike its rivals, America's economic imperative will lie not in meeting the needs of the aging, but in providing job and income growth for our expanding workforce. What the United States does with its "demographic dividend"—that is, its relatively young working-age population—will depend largely on whether the private sector can generate jobs, an issue that's particularly critical now, with more than 15 million unemployed.

    Immigrants may be one force that will lead the way: between 1990 and 2005 immigrants started one quarter of all venture-backed public companies. This enterprising spirit is crucial, because U.S. employment has been shifting not to mega corporations but to individuals; between 1980 and 2000, the number of self-employed people expanded tenfold to make up 16 percent of the workforce.

    To create jobs, America needs to pay attention not only to high-tech industries but also the basic ones—construction, manufacturing, agriculture, energy—that will employ our expanding blue-collar workforce. Expanding our basic industries, and focusing on the necessary skills training for those laboring in them, will provide new opportunities for the majority of workers who do not possess college degrees. It also will be critical to addressing the outflow of capital to other countries, and provide the basis for innovations that will create new exports.

    With the mobilization of our entrepreneurs and supportive government policies, the United States should be able to exploit its vibrant demography to assure its preeminence over the next four decades. If we fail to start taking these steps now, our current leaders will have earned the opprobrium that future generations will heap upon them.

    Kotkin is a Distinguished Presidential Fellow at Chapman University and author of The Next Hundred Million: America in 2050, published by Penguin Press.

    © 2010

    http://www.newsweek.com/id/236529

  2. #2
    Senior Member Richard's Avatar
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    Immigrants may be one force that will lead the way: between 1990 and 2005 immigrants started one quarter of all venture-backed public companies. This enterprising spirit is crucial, because U.S. employment has been shifting not to mega corporations but to individuals; between 1980 and 2000, the number of self-employed people expanded tenfold to make up 16 percent of the workforce.
    Using this definition the day laborers are start up business people because they are self employed.
    I support enforcement and see its lack as bad for the 3rd World as well. Remittances are now mostly spent on consumption not production assets. Join our efforts to Secure America's Borders and End Illegal Immigration by Joining ALIPAC's E-Mail Alerts network (CLICK HERE)

  3. #3
    Senior Member Bowman's Avatar
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    I think this kook needs to move to India, since he loves overpopulation and poverty so much.
    Join our efforts to Secure America's Borders and End Illegal Immigration by Joining ALIPAC's E-Mail Alerts network (CLICK HERE)

  4. #4
    Senior Member Captainron's Avatar
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    To create jobs, America needs to pay attention not only to high-tech industries but also the basic ones—construction, manufacturing, agriculture, energy—that will employ our expanding blue-collar workforce. Expanding our basic industries, and focusing on the necessary skills training for those laboring in them, will provide new opportunities for the majority of workers who do not possess college degrees. It also will be critical to addressing the outflow of capital to other countries, and provide the basis for innovations that will create new exports.

    None of these trends are certain. Urban condos---a fraction of the square footage of suburban McMansions---are gaining rapidly in popularity. Manufacturing has become gradually more automated ever since mass production started---and will continue to do so. Agriculture---which should have become more automated 40 years ago, but was derailed by activist groups---is getting back on track towards more mechanization, and is also competitively challenged by overseas agribusiness.

    There is no magic population number at which a nation becomes competitive against other countries, and able to improve its living standards. The Scandinavian countries have higher living standards---and very tiny populations.
    "Men of low degree are vanity, Men of high degree are a lie. " David
    Join our efforts to Secure America's Borders and End Illegal Immigration by Joining ALIPAC's E-Mail Alerts network (CLICK HERE)

  5. #5
    Senior Member ReggieMay's Avatar
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    What we need are skilled tradesmen and women and fewer gardeners and busboys.
    "A Nation of sheep will beget a government of Wolves" -Edward R. Murrow

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  6. #6
    Super Moderator GeorgiaPeach's Avatar
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    Overpopulation is not to be celebrated here in America, nor is the demographic trending due to illegal immigration and out of control immigration. Too many people here who despise us, too many representing ethnocentric interests, and too many just wanting a free ride. Were it not for the millions of illegal aliens, the anchor babies, and out of control legal immigration, the United States, the resources, communities, would be more sustainable.

    Why do people want to keep bringing people in till we turn into India, or some other third world nation, with people living below a decent standard?

    Personally, I liked living in a smaller city, before the Mayor went global crazy, shouting down citizens speaking out against illegal immigration, adopting new diversity and affirmative action hiring policies, allowing ethnocentric and special interests to light his way, and asking for input from the 60 plus nations and its citizens now living and working, and receiving services in the City. Overcrowded schools, homes, health facilities, trying to meet the demands of the illegal aliens and large immigrant populations. The City is giving public teaching lessons through the media, and public forums on how to greet these newcomers, and how to understand them. I just see more division, more taxpayer dollars, more overcrowding, more lost jobs to Americans, and lawsuits.

    Matthew 10:32
    It is written,... Whoever acknowledges me before men, I will also acknowledge him before my Father in heaven.
    Matthew 19:26
    But Jesus beheld them, and said unto them, With men this is impossible; but with God all things are possible.
    ____________________

    Join our efforts to Secure America's Borders and End Illegal Immigration by Joining ALIPAC's E-Mail Alerts network (CLICK HERE)


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