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Monday, July 25, 2005

Governor losing Hispanic support
Minority members cite poor outreach and remarks against illegal migrants as poll ratings drop.


By MARTIN WISCKOL
The Orange County Register

Few had better reason to celebrate Arnold Schwarzenegger's 2003 election victory than Republican Manny Padilla.

Not only did the North Tustin resident get someone from his own party in the state's highest office, but Padilla's job as Orange County GOP Hispanic outreach chief got easier. California Hispanics traditionally avoid Republicans in the polls, but Schwarzenegger parlayed his popularity in the Hispanic community and got about one-third of its votes - a relatively high number.

Republicans suddenly found a new level of receptiveness among Hispanics. But that support is evaporating, and Padilla is among the critics.

The complaints include comments against illegal immigrants Schwarzenegger has made in recent months, the lack of high- level appointments of Hispanics, the lack of diplomacy with Mexico and his veto of a measure that would allow illegal immigrants to get driver's licenses.

"I'm really disappointed," Padilla said. "Arnold is making it difficult for us to bring Hispanics into the party."

Schwarzenegger has been losing backers across the board this year, in part because of a union- backed ad campaign attacking his education policy. But support in the Hispanic community is eroding especially fast. A Field Poll last month showed that his favorable rating among Hispanic voters has fallen to about 26 percent from about 33 percent of the Hispanic vote that he received when elected. A poll by the Public Policy Institute of California this month showed his Hispanic approval rating at 17 percent, down from 47 percent in January.

"It's not just the blue-collar Latinos. He's losing Latino businessmen, too," said Allan Hoffenblum, a former GOP consultant whose Target Book analyzes candidates. "He's made mistakes by not reaching out. There was hope that Arnold could turn (Republicans' lack of Latino support) around, so I was amazed when he let himself get in this predicament."

Hoffenblum points to President George W. Bush as something of a model for reaching out to Hispanics: high-level Hispanic appointments, a good relationship with Mexican President Vicente Fox, a proposal to let more legal immigrants into the country and condemnation of a citizen border patrol, the Minuteman Project. Schwarzenegger praised the Minutemen, who try to slow illegal immigration.

Schwarzenegger has no Hispanics in his Cabinet, while his predecessor had two.

Schwarzenegger spokeswoman Margita Thompson, a Mexican-American, says the governor has been sensitive to Hispanics, although broader state problems such as the budget, have gotten more attention.

"There was a lot to be done at a macro level," she said. "Now, there can be a greater focus on marketing those accomplishments to the distinct and different communities."

She said the governor embraces diversity in his administration and that while he hasn't met with Fox, he's met with the Mexican foreign minister, the consul general and the Baja California governor. Thompson also provided a list of Legislature-authored bills that Schwarzenegger has signed, titled "Latino Bill List," that variously benefit farmworkers, first-time homebuyers, mobile-home owners, hate-crime victims, immigrants, renters and public- school students.

Irvine's Dick Ackerman, the state Senate's Republican leader, brushed aside concerns that Schwarzenegger is alienating Hispanics. Although the decline in Hispanic support is greater than that of voters at large, Ackerman believes it is primarily because of the union ads attacking Schwarzenegger.

Ackerman supports the governor on most of his comments regarding immigration and said some Hispanics share those views.

Others say that while some Hispanics supported Proposition 187, the 1994 Republican-backed initiative designed to ban some public services to illegal immigrants, the measure is largely credited with driving Hispanics from the GOP.

Carlos Olamendi, a Laguna Niguel Republican who served on Schwarzenegger's election transition committee, is among those who blame the governor's comments and actions on staff members who worked for then-Gov. Pete Wilson when Wilson endorsed Prop 187.

"I feel sad that because of his advisers, he hasn't acted in our best interests," said the Mexican-born Olamendi, who worked as a busboy when he came to the United States 25 years ago and now owns four restaurants.

Republicans aren't the only Hispanics who were hoping for the best from Schwarzenegger.

"Latino voters in Santa Ana, in Orange County, were captivated by an immigrant who came here with nothing and made good, and also by the action-hero image," said county Supervisor Lou Correa, a Democrat who was in the Assembly when Schwarzenegger took office. "I was hoping this would be somebody who would bring us together as a state, put partisan politics aside. But I think the governor has embraced a lot of wedge issues and that he's dividing us. He's lost a golden opportunity."

Olamendi agrees that Schwarzenegger has been divisive, especially with his endorsement of the Minuteman Project.

"You don't support a group that promotes hate," Olamendi said. "That only creates more division."

But Olamendi believes the governor still has a chance to reach out and connect with Hispanics.

"After Prop. 187, it took us 10 years to repair the Republican image in the Latino community," he said. "You work to build respect and trust, and then to have it wiped out in one stroke - it's frustrating. I know him. I know he's friends with the Latino community, but the people around him aren't telling him about this. He should apologize for those remarks. He should establish a new office to deal with immigration.

"He still has a chance to reestablish that relationship. We're willing to sit down with him and talk. Sit down with him, and have a cigar."

PPIC POLL

"Do you approve ... of the way that Arnold Schwarzenegger is handling his job as governor?"

January 2005
All adults 60%
Hispanics 47%
July 2005
All adults 34%
Hispanics 17%
Margin of error: 4.5%

Source: Public Policy Institute of California


San Jose State poll

"Do you approve of the way

Arnold Schwarzenegger

is handling his job as governor?"

March 2005
All voters 49%
Hispanic voters 36%


June 2005
All voters 41%
Hispanic voters 25%


Margin of error: 3.7 percent

Source: San Jose State University




FIELD POLL

Do you approve ... of the way Arnold Schwarzenegger is handling his job as governor of California?

September 2004
All voters 65%
Hispanic voters 56%


Margin of error for September poll: 4.1 percent


Which candidate would you choose if the election for governor were being held today (percentage who named Schwarzenegger)?

June 2005
All voters 39%
Hispanic voters 26%



Margin of error for June poll: 3.6 percent

Source: Field Poll