Thread: Governor Schwarzenegger out to retake Latino voters

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Posted on Wed, Jul. 12, 2006

Governor out to retake Latino voters
IMMIGRATION DEBATE HAS BLED SUPPORT FROM RE-ELECTION CAMPAIGN
By Kate Folmar and Edwin Garcia
Mercury News Sacramento Bureau

SACRAMENTO - In recent weeks, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has worked overtime to reclaim support from Latino voters, seeking to shore up a key vulnerability as he seeks a second term.

His latest outreach effort came Tuesday, when his campaign unveiled a list of statewide supporters dubbed ``Hispanic Families for Arnold.'' On the same day, he also appointed David Lopez of the National Hispanic University in San Jose to the state board of education.

The Republican governor enjoyed unusually high support from Latinos in the 2003 recall election, but his popularity among that group plummeted after a series of miscues -- praising the controversial Minutemen border patrollers and pursuing what many considered an elitist agenda last year. He also angered some Latino voters by vetoing bills that would grant driver's licenses to illegal immigrants.

Even as Schwarzenegger has steered clear of the strident anti-illegal immigration politics dominating Republicans nationally, recent polls have found tepid Latino support for his re-election.

``He's not going to be re-elected if he doesn't get one-third of the Latino vote; that's just simple mathematics'' and also about what Schwarzenegger earned in 2003, said California Target Book co-editor Tony Quinn, who has analyzed ethnic voting patterns for more than two decades. ``No Republican has won the state for president or for governor without getting a third of the Latino vote.''

Now, Schwarzenegger and his advisers are trying to make amends and carve new inroads with the fastest-growing segment of the electorate, who make up about 19 percent of the state's voters.

The governor spoke at the National Council of La Raza convention over the weekend in Los Angeles. In May, he and Democratic Assembly Speaker Fabian Núñez hosted Mexican President Vicente Fox in California, and he is planning a trade mission to Mexico in August.

Schwarzenegger's campaign recently hired former Univisión political analyst Arnoldo Torres, a past executive director of the League of United Latin American Citizens.

Note to Angelides

The governor's recent outreach, said Louis DeSipio, an associate professor of political science at the University of California-Irvine, should come as a warning of sorts for Phil Angelides, the Democrat running against him in the Nov. 7 election.

``Mr. Angelides, in his primary campaign, didn't really make much of an effort at all to reach out to Latino voters,'' DeSipio said. ``If that pattern continues to the general election, a third of the vote should be quite easy for Gov. Schwarzenegger.''

A top aide in the Angelides campaign disputed that notion, listing a number of high-profile Latino elected officials, such as Núñez, and union leaders who stumped for Angelides. ``These are stellar elected officials who have the credibility of the Hispanic community behind them,'' said Daniel Chavez, deputy campaign manager.

Angelides enjoys an enviable lead among Latinos in early polling. A San Jose State University survey released last week showed him leading Schwarzenegger 58 percent to 12 percent, while the Public Policy Institute of California showed Angelides ahead 47 percent to 26 percent before the June primary was settled. And Angelides enjoys the endorsements of big-name Latinos, such as United Farm Workers icon Dolores Huerta.

Among the Latino business and political leaders standing with Schwarzenegger at the first Hispanic Families for Arnold event in Southern California on Tuesday was Leo Lacayo, a publicly elected member of the San Francisco Republican Party.

Had the campaign asked him to support Schwarzenegger a few weeks ago, Lacayo would have declined because of a perception that the governor was being harsh toward illegal immigrants. Now, he's excited to ``take the message forward.''

``The governor's had a complete change of heart in how he's addressed the Hispanic community -- he's very strong on the message for a comprehensive immigration reform act,'' Lacayo said.

A representative for the California Democratic Party classified Schwarzenegger's effort as ``too little, too late.''

``More than anybody else, Latino voters are seeing through this whole charade,'' Roger Salazar said. ``They understand the only reason he's out there pandering to them is because of how low he is in the polls among Latino voters.''

While courting Latinos, the governor is striking a careful balance. Tilt too far in either direction and he could alienate Latino voters or drive off conservative Republicans on issues such as illegal immigration.

He initially hesitated about sending the National Guard to help patrol the Mexican border before cooperating. Over the objections of the GOP, the governor tried unsuccessfully to include in the state budget some money for health insurance for undocumented children, saying it was wrong to ``politicize'' kids.

Lasting resentment

Although Latinos are mostly registered as Democrats, they are known to side with conservatives on some social issues, such as opposition to gay marriage. But the California GOP is still struggling to overcome lingering resentment from Proposition 187, the anti-illegal immigrant measure passed by voters in 1994 but largely invalidated by the courts.

This year, Schwarzenegger is touting an increase in school funding, a push to expand health coverage for the uninsured and the Jessica's Law crackdown on sexual predators.

``If you look at polls that show what Latino voters care about,'' said Gregory Rodriguez, Irvine senior fellow with the New America Foundation, ``it's very similar to what other voters care about: health care, education and crime.''

The governor is getting ``back to his roots'' on a number of fronts after last year's failed special election, acknowledged senior campaign adviser Torres, who chalked up some of the governor's past gaffes to a lack of ``good advice.''

Angelides, he hinted, cannot take Latinos for granted. ``We've got to have both parties competing for our needs.''


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Contact Kate Folmar at kfolmar@mercurynews.com or (916) 441-4602 and read her at the www.mercextra. com/politics blog.

Angelides, he hinted, cannot take Latinos for granted. ``We've got to have both parties competing for our needs.''

Their NEEDS? What about the country and the rest of the citizens? Gee...guess we're no longer necessary in the equation.

We must start referring to the Gov of California as:Benedict Arnold...I think that would suit him just fine.
I hope the people vote in record numbers to vote him OUT of office.
I would not live in California or Florida if you paid me.

On the lighter side...my husband saw a bumper sticker today....I would rather hunt with Chaney than ride in a car with Kennedy...Well folks, I think that just about sums it up....boy, what a choice....
Lafayette,La

Boycott the November election. Only vote for McClintock and the person who's running against Feinstein. If Arnold thinks that illegals are more important then legal Californian citizens then F him. Let him lose. Just leave the Californian governor section on the ballot blank.

``He's not going to be re-elected if he doesn't get one-third of the Latino vote; that's just simple mathematics'' and also about what Schwarzenegger earned in 2003, said California Target Book co-editor Tony Quinn, who has analyzed ethnic voting patterns for more than two decades. ``No Republican has won the state for president or for governor without getting a third of the Latino vote.''

That is because illegal immigration has never been viewed as such an important issue in any of the previous election. Illegal immigration has moved to the top of many U.S. citizens list of concerns (Republicans and Democrats alike). It's no secret that enough Democrats will switch their vote to make up for the missing hispanic support normally required if Arnold would start performing/acting appropriately in regards to illegal immigration and border security. Threats should not intimidate the Terminator!

Trust me, if Arnold would stop attempting to ride the fence on an issue that has a lot of people fired up (Republicans & Democrats), he would do fine in the upcoming elections. I know what I say is true, because I've voted for a Republican president for almost 30 years, but I'd change my vote to Democrat in a heartbeat if I thought he was tougher on illegal immigration than the Republican candidate. Arnold may not win if he keeps trying to appease the pro-illegal immigrant crowd and anti-illegal immigrant crowd at the same time - he needs to wake up and understand that.

Please, someone in California let this man know how he can breeze into re-election if he would get tough on border security and illegal immigration.

I hope the good people of California send Arnold back to the movies! We could use a new predator movie seeing as we have so many of them roaming our streets now. I think that is the real reason Arnold refuses to send any more National Guard to the border. I really don't think Bush intends to follow through with his promises of the Guard on the border either. I have a very bad feeling , if the border ever gets secured, it is going to take US citizens to do that job, our government refuses to do! I cannot imagine living in CA, or Flordia either, if those were my only choices of states to reside in, I would have to shoot myself! To the people on here living in those states, I am not knocking you at all, I just couldn't stand it.

``He's not going to be re-elected if he doesn't get one-third of the Latino vote; that's just simple mathematics'' and also about what Schwarzenegger earned in 2003, said California Target Book co-editor Tony Quinn, who has analyzed ethnic voting patterns for more than two decades. ``No Republican has won the state for president or for governor without getting a third of the Latino vote.''

How many of the "one-third" or the 19% latino vote are actually legal and valid votes? I'm guessing the number isn't as high as his advisors and the press would like Arnold to believe.

Go back to the movies Arnold.

Now he's trying to play both sides.

http://www.alipac.us/modules.php?name=F ... ic&t=34434

Doesn't look like Arnold is doing well in this poll.


http://www.californiaprogressreport.com ... ows_1.html

New Poll Shows Angelides Ahead of Schwarzenegger 46%-44%--Why Arnold’s Camp Has Much to Fear

By Frank D. Russo

The poll just released today by Rasmussen Reports, a highly respected pollster, has Phil Angelides with a statistically insignificant 46 to 44% lead in the race for Governor of California.

In the dog days of summer, and even around election time, polls have a habit of jumping around. They are only snapshots of a sampling of voters. They are often hyped by one side or another in a race and bandied about by the press as if they are rock solid evidence of the direction of the campaigns and predictive of the ultimate result. This far out they are interesting, but almost never dispositive.

Notwithstanding all of this, the Rasmussen poll should give a lot of pause to the Schwarzenegger campaign for the following reasons:

First: Rasmussen has an excellent track record for accuracy. Matthew Dowd, Schwarzenegger’s chief campaign strategist (who plotted strategy for Bush and Cheney in 2004) knows this. He said in 2004 that Rasmussen’s “polling data was dead on this election. Both nationally and at the state level, his numbers were hard to beat." Rasmussen was called the most accurate pollster for the 2004 election when he correctly projected - within tenths of a point - the actual vote totals received by both Bush and John Kerry. This is not some wild outlier poll.

Second: Schwarzenegger is below 50%. Incumbents are traditionally considered to be in trouble when they are below that mark.

Third: Arnold’s campaign has spent a fair amount of money on ads, somewhat unusual for this early in a race, and Angelides has not. Despite all the ads, the quotes of Steve Westly used, the glow of the budget, the glow of the bonds being passed by the Legislature, the bruising Democratic primary, and all that team Arnold has been able to do to position him favorably and bash Phil Angelides, the Governator does not have a lead.

Fourth: California remains a Democratic state and the state’s independent voters lean Democratic. President Bush is disapproved “strongly” by a full 50% of California voters, according to this poll. The fact is that Arnold made a special trip to Ohio in the last days of the 2004 election to help Bush get elected. All the pictures of Schwarzenegger and Bush are yet to be released in ads and embedded in the minds of the voters. After the poll, he was caught sneaking into the White House and trying to keep this Bush contact hidden from public view, for good reason.

Fifth: This poll was taken before the debacle of the state’s prison system worsened, and I doubt that Arnold’s handling of this matter has improved his standings with the voting public.

I can’t see the upside potential for Arnold. Angelides seems better positioned over the next three months plus. But I won’t predict a winner. There’s a reason we have elections and this one is not over.

He's married to a Kennedy which makes him a Kennedy and beholden to the Kennedys.

He's a lib in sheeps clothing. But mostly, he's a kennedy.