Illegal Border Crossings Are Down, But Trump Still Exaggerates the Numbers
150,000
Illegal Border Crossings Are Down, But
Trump Still Exaggerates the Numbers
Since taking office, President Trump has frequently claimed to have achieved large declines in illegal immigration across the Southwest border with Mexico, and the drop appear to grow with each mention. Mr. Trump has a point: Border crossings have gone down more during his administration. Yet he continues to exaggerate.
MID-MARCH
“In the first full month of my administration following the issuance of my executive orders, illegal immigration on our southern border fell by an unprecedented 40 percent.”
https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphic...d_1_copy_7.pngBorder apprehensions
Data available at the time of the statement
–40%
Jan. 2017
to Feb. 2017
30,000
Obama
Trump
This is true. That 40 percent monthly drop is unprecedented, but it is a slight stretch. Changes in border apprehensions — the best gauge of border crossing — are seasonal, so experts recommend looking at year over year changes (by that metric, Trump still would have looked good, but the decline from February 2016 was 28 percent).
LATE MARCH
“Since the day of my election, we’ve already cut illegal immigration at the southern border by 61 percent.”
https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphic...d_1_copy_8.png–60%
from Nov. 2016
to Feb. 2017
30,000
Obama
Trump
Very close. Now he’s using the election as his starting point. It’s worth noting that illegal border crossings increased in the fall of 2016, rather than the typical rise in the spring, so the 60 percent drop may reflect an atypical migration pattern.
APRIL
“Last month, we saw a 64 percent reduction in illegal immigration on our southern border.”
https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphic...d_1_copy_9.png–34%
from Feb. 2017
to Mar. 2017
Mar. 2016
30,000
Obama
Trump
Exaggerated. It was actually 34 percent. If he meant the year over year change, he is right. The White House told PolitiFact that he was referring to the change from March 2016 to March 2017, when the apprehensions declined by about 63 percent.
JUNE
“We’ve achieved a record reduction in illegal immigration. Did you see at the southern border? 75 percent, 75 percent. If they’d do one percent in the past, it used to be aw, we’re doing so well.”
https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphic..._1_copy_12.png–76%
from Nov. 2016
to Apr. 2017
30,000
Obama
Trump
False. Mr. Trump is cherry-picking the change in apprehensions from November 2016 to April (76 percent) to arrive at the most impressive number. Border apprehensions, which tend to vary seasonally, declined by more than 1 percent over six months more than 100 times since 2000.
JULY
“You know, the border is down 78 percent. Under past administrations, the border didn’t go down — it went up.”
https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphic..._1_copy_10.png–76%
from Nov. 2016
to Apr. 2017
30,000
Obama
Trump
False. Mr. Trump is again selective choosing to compare the month with the most border apprehensions in 2016 (November) to the month with the fewest in 2017 (April) — and adding two additional percentage points — even though data through June was available at the time. The decline from November to June was 66 percent. His claim that border crossings “didn’t go down” in past administrations is not true.
AUGUST
Mr. Trump said that when John F. Kelly was in charge of the homeland security department, the number of people coming in went down “78 and almost 80 percent.”
https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphic..._1_copy_11.png–76%
from Nov. 2016
to Apr. 2017
30,000
Obama
Trump
False. This claim adds another two percentage points to Mr. Trump’s already inflated figure. The time frame that most closely matches Mr. Trump’s figure (November to April) also predates Mr. Kelly’s tenure as the secretary of homeland security. At the time of Mr. Trump’s statement and his first mention of “almost 80 percent” on August 22, July was the most recent month available. Mr. Kelly was sworn in on January 20, and apprehensions from February to July declined by 3 percent.
OCTOBER
“The border was like a sieve. Now it’s down 78 percent.”
https://static01.nyt.com/newsgraphic..._1_copy_11.png–76%
from Nov. 2016
to Apr. 2017
30,000
Obama
Trump
False. Mr. Trump is once again using the outdated and cherry-picked decrease from November to April. At the time of his statement, the figures for August had been available for a month. Apprehensions declined by 40 percent from the same month last year, but actually increased by 19 percent from February, his first full month in office, to August.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...factcheck.html
