Immigration (mass amnesty) could hinge on August recess

Politico
Immigration could hinge on August recess


By CARRIE BUDOFF BROWN and JAKE SHERMAN | 7/18/13 12:11 AM EDT

The White House and its immigration reform allies are banking on the August recess as their next — and possibly last — major opportunity to compel House Republicans to act.


With the issue stalled in the House, the monthlong congressional break is the linchpin of a campaign that President Barack Obama, Senate immigration leaders and a broad coalition of groups now expect they’ll have to wage through the end of the year. They realize they must make progress in the next month to stand any chance of keeping the issue alive into the fall.

“We’re not winning this fight,” Sen. John McCain, a Gang of Eight leader, told POLITICO Wednesday. “They are mounting a better campaign than we are — the opposition is.”


Some advocates are planning for a confrontational August, with a surge in protests aimed at Republican leaders and lawmakers from swing districts. Others will do what they’ve long done, sending pastors, police officers and business owners to make the conservative case for reform at town hall meetings. Working off a target list of more than 100 Republicans, all are aiming to convince the House that it has no option but to deal with immigration.


The recess comes as anxiety mounts among immigration advocates. Optimism has faded amid worries that the House remains hopelessly divided on how to proceed, Republicans feel little urgency to come to a consensus, and the powerful network of reform backers aren’t making an impact.


Obama spent part of an Oval Office meeting last week with McCain and Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), pressing them on the strategy for the August break. And the two senators summoned representatives from more than two dozen high-tech firms, faith organizations and business groups to the Capitol on Tuesday, stressing repeatedly that they need to ramp up their activity, according to sources who participated in the meeting.


The Gang of Eight — minus Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), who declined to attend — demanded that the groups develop a coordinated campaign. Senators told them that pastors should talk about immigration from the pulpit and that the coalition must personalize its lobbying and messaging, the sources said. For example, Rep. John Kline (R-Minn.) should hear from agricultural groups and universities; Rep. Frank LoBiondo (R-N.J.) should feel pressure from Jersey Shore tourism interests; and Rep. Rob Bishop (R-Utah), a Morman, should hear from his church.


“What we wanted to do was kick everybody in the butt and say, ‘Hey, there’s time to do it, but you’ve got to do it,’” said Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.), a Gang of Eight member.
The reaction from House Republicans is uniform: Don’t bother. Even Rubio called it misguided.


“I don’t believe that the best way to get a result on immigration reform is to go out and create this public pressure campaign on the House,” Rubio said in an interview. “Quite frankly, I don’t think it’s going to work.”
House leadership and rank-and-file Republicans say the campaign underscores a fundamental misunderstanding of Speaker John Boehner’s conference.


Instead of only the 30 to 40 Republicans Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) privately estimated to be against the comprehensive Senate bill, the GOP leadership pegs the number at roughly 180. The number of supporters can be counted “on one hand,” a senior GOP aide said.


Schumer “obviously doesn’t know much about my church or the high-tech industry in my district,” said Bishop, who has served in the statehouse and Congress for more than 25 years. “It shows somewhat of a naiveté on the part of the Senate. But dude, you’re dealing with the Senate. Look up naiveté, and you’ll see their picture.”


Rep. Tom Rooney (R-Fla.), who showed up on a 121-member target list distributed at the meeting, said senators “might as well be a million miles away over there on that side of the building.” Rep. Trey Gowdy (R-S.C.), also cited during the meeting as a key figure to lobby, said he’s “more likely to be persuaded by one person with a compelling argument than I am a huge media buy or people from outside the district who come to a town hall.”


And Rep. Pete Sessions (R-Texas), another target, said that when the Senate starts “taking our bills up, we’ll take their bills up.”


Reform supporters insist a legislative victory remains within reach.


The Republican Conference meeting last week confirmed that the House leadership feels pressure to do something. Advocates claim that House members who knew little about the Senate bill are learning during one-on-one meetings that it’s not worlds away from what they could accept. And polls show that more voters align with Democrats than Republicans on the issue.


But the task is enormous: Immigration proponents need to prove in August that Republicans can’t afford to sentence immigration to a slow death in the fall. Their strategy involves leveraging public pressure, playing legislative hardball and proving to Republicans that the only viable solution is a comprehensive one.


The Republican Conference meeting last week confirmed that the House leadership feels pressure to do something. Advocates claim that House members who knew little about the Senate bill are learning during one-on-one meetings that it’s not worlds away from what they could accept. And polls show that more voters align with Democrats than Republicans on the issue.


But the task is enormous: Immigration proponents need to prove in August that Republicans can’t afford to sentence immigration to a slow death in the fall. Their strategy involves leveraging public pressure, playing legislative hardball and proving to Republicans that the only viable solution is a comprehensive one.


Advocates see the House battle unfolding several different ways this fall.


One possibility is that Boehner attempts to pass a handful of piecemeal bills but ends up being stymied by two dozen or more conservatives who refuse to vote for anything that could set up a conference committee. House Democrats could also hold together and oppose any effort to deal with immigration through a step-by-step approach. If unable to produce a bill, Boehner could succumb to rising pressure from business, establishment Republicans, faith leaders and others to ultimately allow a vote on a comprehensive bill — and House members who oppose it wouldn’t revolt because they’ll just want it off their plate. In that scenario, Boehner would most likely feel pressure to bring up a bipartisan House bill, which is slated for release later this year. That bill is expected to hew further to the right than the Senate bill.


Another scenario is that the House passes legislation on border security and the DREAM Act, setting up a conference committee with the Senate. When it gets to conference, Senate reform backers would push to expand the scope of the negotiations and lobby Boehner to waive the so-called Hastert rule for the conference committee report, which requires a majority of the majority to support a bill before it receives a vote.


Obama won’t step into campaign mode until later in the year — and only if it looks like the reform effort is stalled, according to administration officials.


But it starts with the August recess. Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.), a Gang of Eight member, said it “can be make or break.”


Identifying a momentum-shifting strategy is difficult even to those tasked with the job. It depends on events that can be unpredictable, such as capturing a compelling exchange or protest that can reorient conventional wisdom.


Progressive activists have been debating privately about the need to escalate their tactics. They’ve broadened the movement, deepened its ideological reach, helped to push a bill through the Senate with more votes than anyone thought possible earlier this year — and House Republicans still aren’t budging. Acts of civil disobedience with a moral element could be the next step, advocates said.
“Our responsibility is to keep the heat on and to turn it up even higher,” said Kica Matos, director of immigrant rights and racial justice at the Center for Community Change.


Grover Norquist, president of Americans for Tax Reform, said immigration reform proponents are trying to figure out a way to break through.


“There is more to be done,” said Norquist, who attended the Tuesday meeting with McCain and Schumer. “We could making a lot more noise and perhaps ought to be.”


The Senate Gang will meet with the groups and businesses again July 25, when they will be quizzed on the progress they’ve made with Republicans.


House Republican lawmakers and aides privately said they’re frustrated that business is taking cues from Schumer and that they will take note of which organizations turn up the heat on their members.


“None of these companies or associations should think for a minute that this is a free pass for them,” a senior GOP aide said. “We won’t forget who got in bed with Chuck Schumer. He is against their interests 90 percent of the time, and now, he is threatening them, and they rush to grovel at his feet. Sad.”
Joe Trauger, a vice president at the National Association of Manufacturers who attended the Senate meeting, said his organization is working and talking with “anyone and everyone” who is interested in advancing immigration reform.


But in a nod to the sensitive politics, Trauger added: “We just need to let the House work its will.”


Manu Raju contributed to this report.

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