By SEUNG MIN KIM and JAKE SHERMAN | 5/17/13 5:16 PM EDT
POLITICO


The path to reform is a 'very difficult process,' Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart says. | Reuters

After years of false starts, Washington finally appears to be on the path to rewriting the nation’s immigration laws.

The Senate Gang of Eight bill is holding its own in committee and is expected to hit the Senate floor in June. And in the House this week, members of a bipartisan group agreed “in principle” on a big bill to be revealed in June.

But in this case, looks are deceiving. There are still major hurdles before immigration reform can reach President Barack Obama’s desk. The biggest one is the GOP-controlled House.

Right now, the Senate bill has no chance of making it to the House floor. Key senators such as Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and John McCain (R-Ariz.) have stressed that their bill would need upwards of 70 Senate votes in order to enact pressure on the House. But House GOP negotiators flatly say the margin of votes in the Senate — no matter how big — won’t matter.

“I don’t think it can pass the House,” said Rep. John Carter (R-Texas) said of the Senate bill, echoing the quiet conversation of top House Republican leaders. “I think our bill has a better chance of passing the House than the Senate bill. We went more into detail than they did. They’ve got holes all through their bill.”

There are many reasons for the Senate bill being anathema to House conservatives, including its shorter pathway to citizenship for the 11 million illegal immigrants, a guest worker program viewed as too generous to labor unions and border security measures they say are too weak.

But even getting a measure through the House will be enough of a challenge. And if the House manages to approve its own bill, then the two chambers would have to hammer out a compromise – or let immigration reform die.

The House’s legislation is still not finished, according to multiple sources. They agree broadly on how to deal with the issue of health care for undocumented immigrants seeking U.S. citizenship, but haven’t worked out the details. The party also threw in the towel on a consensus on low-skilled worker visas.

Democrats and Republicans will instead present separate versions of a guest-worker program. Democrats are opting for the agreement struck by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the AFL-CIO that is the basis for the Senate language, but Republicans favor a program more friendly to business interests.

Significantly, House negotiators also have to finish drafting the bill. The Senate bill is now at 867 pages.

“I think this is a very important first step — the fact that you have folks from the ideological opposites agreeing on what is a very complicated, complex piece of legislation,” Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.) said Friday. “But I’m not blinded to the fact that that’s just a first step.

“It is a very, very difficult process,” he continued. “It’s going to be a lengthy process.”

So when House members say they have an agreement “in principle,” that’s shorthand for “this can all still fall apart.” For example, Rep. Xavier Becerra of California, a member of House Democratic leadership and of the House immigration group, hasn’t signed on to the deal — and he wants specific bill language before publicly backing it.

If the House group actually releases something, it has to go through the Judiciary Committee — a panel with a volatile mix of progressive liberals like New York Rep. Jerry Nadler and staunch conservatives like Iowa Rep. Steve King and Texas Rep. Louie Gohmert. King and Gohmert, flanked by other House conservatives, held a press conference this week denouncing the Senate bill.

“Judiciary is going to be a tough row to hoe,” said Rep. John Carter (R-Texas), a member of the group. “But I think we’ll be all right. I think that a lot of the things that make it important are going to stay in place. At least I’m very hopeful.”

Not to mention, that committee’s chairman, Rep. Bob Goodlatte (R-Va.), has said he wants to overhaul immigration in bite-sized bills — not the comprehensive approach of the eight-person group.

His committee members say the same thing.

“I’m in favor of an incremental approach,” Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-Utah) said. “I think you do this one step at a time. Find common ground and move onto the next issue.”

House Republicans are leaving open the option to break up the group’s immigration bill and move separate pieces through different committees. Judiciary will have the primary jurisdiction, but — for instance — border security provisions could be taken up by the Homeland Security Committee.

But Democrats who have consistently rallied for one comprehensive bill are expected to raise ferocious objections to a piecemeal approach in the House.

If the House bill survives the entire chamber, the House and Senate will need to negotiate the considerable differences. The House bill, reflecting its Republican members, is already more conservative, and is likely to become even more so after making its way through that chamber.

For example, the Senate bill has a 13-year pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants, with a faster track for DREAM Act-eligible immigrants. In the House, negotiators have agreed on a 15-year pathway to citizenship that would require immigrants to go through a process where they admit they violated immigration laws, and be put under probationary status. The House bill would also include a shorter pathway for DREAM Act immigrants – those who were brought into the United States without documents as children.

House negotiators have also agreed to include a trigger that would shut down the legalization process if E-Verify is not installed within five years.

The Senate bill alone is a delicate bipartisan compromise, and pulling that legislation too much to the right or left could risk unraveling the entire agreement. A more conservative House bill will run into resistance from liberal Democratic senators — several of whom have already proposed changes to the Senate bill that makes the pathway to citizenship more generous or add provisions to cover gay partners.

On top of that, House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) and his leadership team need to keep an eye on the far right, because conservatives like Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa) are already denouncing any kind of reform.

“If there’s anything that looks like amnesty that’s brought before this Congress it would be exactly the wedge that splits the Republican Party in this House,” he said in an interview. “There are a whole lot of conservatives that haven’t spoken out. They’re increasing in their intensity in this thing. I can just feel it.”

And with all the attention on Sen. Marco Rubio’s (R-Fla.) bipartisan work with Schumer (D-N.Y.), you would think that bill could sail through the conservative House.

“I have been exceedingly deferential to my Senate colleagues because I think they deserve a lot of credit,” Diaz-Balart added. “But there’s no doubt that a House bill will have to be a lot different than the Senate bill.”

Still, the House immigration negotiators are pushing forward. Their next meeting is scheduled for Tuesday, and lawmakers are regularly briefing their respective leadership. Soon, they will start soliciting feedback from rank-and-file members as they refine the bill for public release.

Rep. Trey Gowdy (R-S.C.), who chairs the House Judiciary subcommittee that oversees immigration issues, said Friday he was “delighted to hear” that the House group had reached a deal.

Of the Senate bill, Gowdy added: “We appreciate that opening bid … but we’re going to let the House work its will and produce our own legislation.”

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