Thread: Banking on his base, Trump charts his own path forward

Banking on his base, Trump charts his own path forward

By Stephen Collinson, CNN
Updated 1:53 AM ET, Fri September 15, 2017

Story highlights

Trump met with Democrats to talk immigration
But continued equivocal rhetoric on Charlottesville violence

Washington (CNN)President Donald Trump is back where he belongs -- triggering political earthquakes that threaten to tip Washington off its axis.

One moment, Trump is presenting his impregnable political base with its biggest test yet as he edges toward a deal with Democrats on immigration -- one that will test whether he or outraged conservative pundits have the best fix on the loyalties of his supporters.

The next, he's proving how polarizing, and sometimes detrimental to his own fortunes he can be, reigniting the controversy over his response to neo-Nazi violence in Charlottesville, insisting that there were "bad dudes" on both sides.

If that was not enough for one frenetic day on Thursday, The New York Times reported that Trump had upbraided his Attorney General Jeff Sessions, calling him "an idiot" and disloyal, over his handling of allegations of collusion between the President's campaign aides and Russia.

Trump's signature ability to place himself at the center of multiple, simultaneous political storms is on display as he reaches the end of a momentous week that started with Hurricane Irma tearing a trail of destruction across Florida, for a while eclipsing even Trump's gargantuan political personality and capacity to dominate the news.

The President's attempt to broker a deal with Democrats to allow hundreds of thousands of young, undocumented migrants to stay in the US sparked a political explosion and predictions he will rupture his visceral connection with his most faithful supporters on an issue that helped electrify his campaign.

But there are many reasons to believe that despite initial wave of outrage about his dinner conversation with top Democrats Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi on Wednesday, Trump will not inevitably pay a heavy political price even if he goes ahead and reverses a core campaign promise.

First, the rush by both the White House and Democrats to clarify the terms of what is being discussed have tempered initial interpretations that the President simply caved on an issue that was integral to his political appeal in the election -- less than two weeks after ending the DACA program that protected the 800,000 migrants brought to the US as children.

In a series tweets and comments to reporters, Trump repeatedly sought to explain himself to his supporters amid a flurry of criticism from prominent celebrity conservatives after the Democrats had initially indicated that a deal would be made to twin protection for DACA recipients in return for border security "excluding the wall."

"No deal was made last night on DACA. Massive border security would have to be agreed to in exchange for consent. Would be subject to vote," Trump wrote on Twitter.

Later, his campaign blasted out an email from the President.

"There's been a lot of noise today and a lot of rumors. Let me set the record straight in the simplest language possible...
"...WE WILL BUILD A WALL (NOT A FENCE) ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA TO HELP STOP ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION AND KEEP AMERICA SAFE."

The pushback operation was a sign that the President appreciates the hypersensitivity of any potential deal on immigration among his core voters. After all, during his campaign, he branded DACA an illegal "executive amnesty."
Room to maneuver

But at the same time, Trump's room to maneuver with his base may also be wider than some pundits assume.

Firstly, given Trump's vehement pronouncements on immigration ever since he sprung onto the political stage, he has the kind of credibility with arch conservatives that more moderate Republicans -- like Sen. Marco Rubio for instance -- have lacked and that could be deployed in a kind of "Nixon goes to China" moment to compromise with Democrats.
Those covered by DACA, who in many cases know no other home than the United States, are also in many cases the most sympathetic undocumented migrants to public opinion.

Trump has frequently slammed other classes of undocumented migrants -- including some in MS-13 gangs as "animals" and notoriously accused Mexico of sending criminals and rapists to the US in his campaign announcement speech.
But he has made a special case for those affected by his decision to cancel DACA.

"Does anybody really want to throw out good, educated and accomplished young people who have jobs, some serving in the military? Really!.....,"Trump tweeted.

The President has also created significant political capital for himself among his core supporters in his eight months in power. By pardoning former Arizona Sheriff Joe Arpaio, convicted of contempt in a racial profiling case, signing an executive order to cut funds for sanctuary cities and introducing a travel ban on certain Muslim countries, Trump has made it unlikely that any significant political challenger can get to the right of him on immigration.

Arpaio, a hero to many voters for whom immigration is a driving issue, offered the President some political cover on the DACA issue Thursday, showing the political value of a pardon that alienated many more moderate voters.

"Whatever final policy he supports, I'll also support. He's very intelligent. He cuts deals," Arpaio said, according to The Los Angeles Times.

Conservative callers to Rush Limbaugh's radio show on Thursday, meanwhile, appeared to be reacting with less outrage to Trump's meeting with Schumer and Pelosi than some conservative opinion leaders.

Some suggested that the media was misinterpreting Trump's intentions. Others believed that the President was simply running rings around the top Democrats with masterful strategy. Some said that Trump was only working with Democrats because he had been let down by establishment Republicans -- for example, in the failure to repeal and replace Obamacare.
Limbaugh told his listeners that he could not recall any calls from a "legitimate Trumpist" who felt betrayed by the President's bipartisan outreach in recent days.

"Their faith in Trump is total and it is unshakeable, at least as of now, and they are not at all worried about this," he said.
While recent CNN polls have shown that there has been an erosion of enthusiasm for Trump among Republicans and independents who voted for him, there is no clear evidence that his base is deserting him.

Trump enjoys immense trust among his largely white, working class core of supporters. Many regard him as the only politician who has ever dared to give voice to their grievances and bonded with him over his economic nationalism and "America First" creed.

A wholesale repudiation of that philosophy would likely be needed to splinter the President's core support.

Some voters, bitterly disappointed with gridlock in Washington turned to Trump, an outsider, because of his professed deal making abilities -- another factor that may give him some political running room. And if he can finesse a deal that includes genuine measures to boost border security in a DACA deal, he may spare himself serious political damage.

A Monmouth University poll taken before and after the controversy over his failure to quickly and unequivocally condemn white supremacists after violence in Charlottesville last month found that six in 10 of people who approve of Trump could not think of anything that he could do that would make them disapprove of the job he is doing as President.

Many of Trump's supporters in conservative media and in Congress have been watching to see if the arrival of John Kelly as White House chief of staff and the departure of other more radical members of Trump's inner circle would cause him to work to please the Washington establishment he promised to eviscerate.

That has especially been the case since the President jilted Republican congressional leaders and accepted a Democratic deal for a three month extension of the government's debt ceiling.

The prospect that Trump could do a deal on DACA recipients with Democrats therefore caused massive shockwaves on Thursday.

"The base will leave him. They can't support him anymore," said Iowa Rep. Steve King, warning on CNN's "New Day" that if Trump replaced the DACA program and watered down his plans for the border wall he would smash his political support.
Breitbart News branded Trump "Amnesty Don," while conservative radio host Laura Ingraham slammed "The Art of the Steal."

But another well-known Trump supporter, Roger Stone, told CNN's Kaitlan Collins that there was little evidence that a potential deal with Democrats will harm Trump since border crossings are down and the administration has increased pressure on sanctuary cities.

However, Stone did say there are many people who wonder whether "our king," meaning Trump, "has been captured" and now Kelly and the "establishment clique are now governing."

http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/15/politi...ort/index.html

President Trump, you can bank on your base as long as we can bank on you. NO DACA, NO AMNESTY. DEPORT, DEPORT, DEPORT.

Why are they still harping on Charlottesville?

Weren't there 'bad dudes' - paid bad dudes - on both sides?

We can be disgruntled with the President, I am. But keep in mind if our very own republicans had supported him, rather than undermining and working against him, he would have been able to accomplish much of his agenda.

Remember many of these congresscritters have been there for years, thanks to many of us. They then become rich fatcats, thanks to us. Shouldn't they begin to actually do some work for all those goodies we made possible?

Pres. Trump may have veered off course, or even abandoned us - but we did gain something in the election.

We realized there were a lot of us like-minded people out here and that should give us courage to begin taking some action.

It also made those in charge realize there are a lot of us out here - and I think that frightened them - big time. There would not be such hysteria out there.

We need to show all politicians and companies that work against us, that we have more than just voting ability.

"Whatever final policy he supports, I'll also support. He's very intelligent. He cuts deals," Arpaio said, according to The Los Angeles Times.

Oh please. I supported his pardon of you, but receiving a pardon doesn't mean you have to kiss his butt regardless of what he does. Signing an illegal immigrant amnesty will be unforgiveable!

Sep. 15th, 2017

Weekly
Newsletter

This Issue: Trump's Friday morning Tweet on Chain Migration attempts to clarify position on DACA

Fri, Sep 15th

Every political junkie in the country was trying to decode Pres. Trump's cryptic Tweet this morning on chain migration.
CHAIN MIGRATION cannot be allowed to be part of any legislation on Immigration!

-- Pres. Trump

Given the President's endorsement of Senators Tom Cotton and David Perdue's RAISE Act (which would end chain migration), we believe Trump's Tweet can only mean one thing -- any immigration bill passed by Congress should end chain migration.

In his Tweet response to Trump, Roy added another condition with a link to his recent op-ed published by The Hill...
True. Any immigration legislation must end Chain Migration...and mandate E-Verify.

-- NumbersUSA President Roy Beck

Trump's Tweet came after news broke on Wednesday night that he had struck a deal with Democratic leaders Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer on DACA. The reports said that Trump had agreed to pair a DACA amnesty with border security, triggering a firestorm of anger and frustration from his base. (Read our statement in response to the reports here.) After all, Trump's anti-amnesty pledge was repeated on the campaign trail almost as often as his calls for a "wall" along the U.S.-Mexico border.

The once Trump-friendly Brietbart.com dubbed Trump as "Amnesty Don" followed by reports of his supporters burning "Make America Great Again" hats after hearing news of the alleged deal.

The White House insisted that there was no deal, but acknowledged that Trump, Pelosi, and Schumer did discuss DACA and border security.

After his Tweet this morning, reporters pressed White House Press Secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders to explain what exactly the Tweet meant. Sanders said that the White House would be announcing its immigration principles in 7-10 days and mentioned the President's support for the RAISE Act.

WHAT IT ALL MEANS

The only ones who know if anything was agreed to regarding a DACA amnesty during the meeting are the people who were in the room on Wednesday night, and each side is fighting for leverage over the other on the issue. Whether Trump agreed to a DACA amnesty-border security trade is unknown, but it's become clear over the last 24 hours that if a deal was made, he's backed off.

Regardless, the next few weeks will be telling. House Speaker Paul Ryan and Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy have assembled an immigration working group along with Judiciary Chairman Bob Goodlatte to draft possible legislation.

Meanwhile, House Freedom Caucus Chairman Mark Meadows is saying that the White House has reached out to his caucus to also propose legislation.

The only thing we know for sure is that NumbersUSA activists should prepare for major action on possible immigration legislation in Congress this fall. No one knows what that legislation might look like, but if Trump gets his way according to his Tweet and today's press briefing, the RAISE Act could be part of it. And we'll need all of our activists ready to pressure Congress to make sensible changes to our legal immigration system that serve the national interest.

Chris Chmielenski

Action

The House is on recess through the end of next week, so be on the lookout for Town Hall action alerts coming from Van.

Voters agree with Trump on ending Chain Migration by 55% to 32%

Fri, Sep 15th

A new national poll of "likely midterm voters" finds 55% of them favoring a bill that "would allow immigrants to bring in their spouse and minor children but would end migration of extended family." Only 32% of the voters say they oppose eliminating the Chain Migration categories.

NUSA Op-Ed: Amnesty for 'Dreamers' Won't Solve Policy Flaw Creating DACA Dilemma

Tue, Sep 12th

NumbersUSA President, Roy Beck, wrote an op-ed that was published on The Hill's website today on what caused the DACA dilemma and how another amnesty will only increase, not end, this problem.

POLL: Most voters want refugee numbers cut to 25,000 or less

Roy Beck

Wed, Sep 13th

Amid reports that the White House is wrestling over whether to cap next year's refugee admissions at 50,000 or a lower number, a national poll of likely voters found that most would prefer a lower number. And most of them prefer MUCH lower.

HR Society Endorses Mandatory E-Verify Bill

Wed, Sep 13th

The Society for Human Resource Management (SHRM) supports Rep. Lamar Smith's (R-Texas) Legal Workforce Act, which would require all employers to use E-Verify within two years. The bill would fulfill NumbersUSA's top enforcement priority by eliminating the jobs magnet for illegal aliens.

Rep. Lamar Smith Introduces House Version of the RAISE Act

Mon, Sep 11th

Rep. Lamar Smith (R-Texas) has introduced the Immigration in the National Interest Act, which is the House companion bill to Sen. Tom Cotton's (R-Ark.) RAISE Act. The RAISE Act would end chain migration and the visa lottery and transform the existing employment-based system to a merit-based one.

From NumbersUSA email.

Originally Posted by nntrixie

Why are they still harping on Charlottesville?

Weren't there 'bad dudes' - paid bad dudes - on both sides?

We can be disgruntled with the President, I am. But keep in mind if our very own republicans had supported him, rather than undermining and working against him, he would have been able to accomplish much of his agenda.

Remember many of these congresscritters have been there for years, thanks to many of us. They then become rich fatcats, thanks to us. Shouldn't they begin to actually do some work for all those goodies we made possible?

Pres. Trump may have veered off course, or even abandoned us - but we did gain something in the election.

We realized there were a lot of us like-minded people out here and that should give us courage to begin taking some action.

It also made those in charge realize there are a lot of us out here - and I think that frightened them - big time. There would not be such hysteria out there.

We need to show all politicians and companies that work against us, that we have more than just voting ability.

Same reason they harp on the wall, divide and conquer.

Originally Posted by Judy

Same reason they harp on the wall, divide and conquer.

I don't understand.

Originally Posted by nntrixie

I don't understand.

Turn Republicans against each other. Split the base. Divide the party, so Dems conquer the mid-terms in 2018 and Pres election in 2020. They want Republicans to look like racists, phonies, unreliable, deplorables and unconscionables. How better to do that than harp on the wall promise and Trump's "violence on both sides" statement, deny funding for the wall to ensure the wall promise is broken, make Republicans feel like they've been lied to and cheated, run in different directions in fear of being labeled a "racist", and divide the party.

Originally Posted by Judy

Turn Republicans against each other. Split the base. Divide the party, so Dems conquer the mid-terms in 2018 and Pres election in 2020. They want Republicans to look like racists, phonies, unreliable, deplorables and unconscionables. How better to do that than harp on the wall promise and Trump's "violence on both sides" statement, deny funding for the wall to ensure the wall promise is broken, make Republicans feel like they've been lied to and cheated, run in different directions in fear of being labeled a "racist", and divide the party.

Yes, I agree.

While I may be upset with the President, I still realize we had no choice.

For me, build the wall or not - just don't delay enforcing our laws until it's built.